The Friday before Australia Day, when half the country is still at the beach, might seem like an unusual time to launch a newsletter on federal politics. However, 2025 is anything but a normal year.

Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are barnstorming marginal seats, shadow-boxing in a pre-election pseudo-campaign, and even the latest possible option for an election date means the real show is only weeks away. And, in case you have been living under a rock, America has a new president and things are going to be different.