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Paul Bloxham

Paul Bloxham

The next RBA rate move is more likely to be up than down

An unexpectedly hot inflation report has completed changed the game for the Reserve Bank of Australia. When there is a big surprise like this, there are typically two responses from the market, writes HSBC’s Paul Bloxham.

Last week’s quarterly inflation print completely changed the game for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The short-lived period of calm, when core inflation was comfortably in the target band, is over.

Third-quarter inflation surprised sharply to the upside, and when a big surprise like this comes along, there are typically two possible responses.

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is HSBC’s chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/opinion/the-next-rba-rate-move-is-likely-to-be-up-than-down-20251103-p5n7cb