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Australia’s IPO drought is the worst since the GFC

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Australia’s IPO market is limping along at its weakest pace in 15 years as companies reject going public in favour of chasing the wave of capital on offer in private markets and their owners resist the scrutiny of listing to protect closely guarded valuations.

The value of new equity raised from ASX IPOs in the first nine months of this year was just $US495 million ($720 million), the weakest since 2012, according to data compiled by Dealogic for The Australian Financial Review as of September 30. And, the 15 floats over that period was the lowest since the global financial crisis in 2009.

Guzman y Gomez is the ASX’s largest IPO this year. Dominic Lorrimer

A record-breaking run on the sharemarket has failed to entice more listings. On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index claimed an all-time high of 8285.7 points as China’s stimulus blitz lifted the fortunes of resources companies.

The attraction of staying private was highlighted by Blackstone’s purchase of home-grown data centre operator AirTrunk for a $24 billion enterprise valuation, sold by Macquarie Asset Management and PSP Investments.

“Credit markets are alive and well, so private companies can not only access private equity, but private debt is more readily available than at any point I can recall,” said Yarra Capital’s head of Australian equities Dion Hershan.

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“There’s also significant friction with going public in terms of the cost, timeline and the distraction associated with being listed.”

Mr Hershan said Australian investors are crying out for a wider variety of investible IPOs to participate in, attributing the dearth of floats to a “lack of quality deals at reasonable prices”.

The only major IPO this year was burrito chain Guzman y Gomez, which raised $335 million at a $2.2 billion valuation offering new shares at $22 apiece – but only to select institutional investors. Retail investors who wanted Guzman y Gomez stock had to buy it on-market.

The company’s market capitalisation has since swelled to $4 billion, or $37 a share at Thursday’s prices.

Guzman y Gomez’s success is not enough to overcome the disappointing performance of companies that floated during the IPO boom of 2021, many of which are still haunting fund managers’ three-year track records.

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“That was a poor vintage, and a lot of very low-quality companies went public at high prices and disappointed,” Mr Hershan said. “So investors are still pretty discerning about the quality of what goes public and making sure valuations are reasonable.”

The ASX highlights that Australia isn’t the only IPO market struggling; the US, United Kingdom and Canada are also experiencing low listing numbers since peaking in 2021.

ASX group executive of listings Blair Beaton said activity is picking up with a range of sizeable floats expected before the end of this year. The exchange is looking at ways to make the listing process more efficient.

“It’s something we continually look at – are there things we can do to decrease timeframes and make it more streamlined,” Mr Beaton said. “But we still think we’ve got some pretty good settings here.”

Professional services group HLB Mann Judd continues to forecast a “high level of caution” among businesses considering an IPO or simple consolidation via mergers or acquisitions. Such volumes typically improve at the end of the calendar year, it said.

“There are many entities and investors currently doing their due diligence to ensure they are prepared for the right conditions that will improve the success of an IPO,” said partner Nicholas Guest.

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Improving pipeline

There are seven companies scheduled to float on the local bourse this month, according to the ASX which, if realised, would represent nearly half the number of listings so far this year.

One candidate is Regal-backed lithium play CleanTech Lithium, which has already pushed back its listing date twice and is now scheduled to float on October 25. It would be the company’s secondary listing, as it already has a presence on the London Stock Exchange’s junior AIM market.

CleanTech is hoping to tap into the Australian market’s thirst for lithium exposure as the company progresses towards production at its flagship Laguna Verde project in Chile.

Its executive chairman Steve Kesler told the Financial Review that the IPO was delayed as the company addresses “procedural matters raised by the ASX”.

“We aim to be trading on the ASX in the fourth quarter and will update the market soon once a revised timeline is agreed,” Mr Kesler said.

Alex Gluyas is a markets reporter based in our Melbourne newsroom. Connect with Alex on Twitter. Email Alex at alex.gluyas@afr.com
Joshua Peach is a Markets Reporter at The Australian Financial Review Email Joshua at joshua.peach@nine.com.au

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/australia-s-ipo-drought-is-the-worst-since-the-gfc-20241002-p5kfci