Dire earnings forecasts for commodity producers are being hastily rewritten as brokers play catch-up to the surge in commodity prices that took off last month, compelling investors to rethink the resources sector as a source of returns.

Consensus estimates for the MSCI World Mining Index for financial years 2024 to 2026 have climbed 6 per cent to 8 per cent over the past three weeks, reversing more than a year in downgrade territory. The mining benchmark lost 3 per cent in the first quarter, but this conceals a 9.5 per cent surge in March.