Economists are optimistic the economy will return to robust growth in the fourth quarter as vaccinations race toward world-beating levels, but the take-off is likely to be bumpy due to restrictions on mobility and business operations set to last until mid-2022.

Rolling lockdowns beginning in NSW in June have put a dent in gross domestic product, with 0.7 per cent growth in the second quarter saving Australia from a double-dip recession. The economy is tipped to have shrunk between 3 per cent and 4 per cent in the September quarter, which would be the worst result since the end of World War II, but for last year’s 7 per cent contraction in the first wave of COVID-19.