Between anti-China tweets, Donald Trump is playing golf again. Pro-democracy demonstrators are back protesting on the streets of Hong Kong. The Morrison government is still insisting Australia’s relationship with its most important trading partner remains strong.

But there’s no return to politics as usual, globally or domestically. Well beyond the economic and social destruction wrought by COVID-19, the tectonic power plates between the US and China have shifted even further and faster over the last few months. No V-shaped or U-shaped recovery from that confrontation is possible, whether or not Trump gets re-elected in November. It’s more how to adapt to the dangerous fissures opening up.