“We have to be super careful,” Indonesia’s Maritime Affairs Minister Luhut Binsar Panjaitan told reporters last week when asked how the country would fare amid deteriorating global forecasts and seismic geopolitical shifts. “We are resilient but we have to be super careful.”

Luhut, who generally goes by just the one name, is an influential figure in the country’s outgoing cabinet and knows better than most what lies ahead. He was among the senior ministers briefed a month ago by the World Bank on the increasing risks to the Indonesian economy, a briefing that also warned much-needed reforms were being sidelined by “shadowy forces” at work in government.