A truism of Australian politics – that elections are decided by swinging voters in suburban homes on quarter-acre blocks with Hills Hoists in the backyard – is set to be challenged. The May 18 poll outcome may instead hinge on the votes of the Three R’s – Riesling-drinking Range-Rover drivers sporting Rolex watches.

Call it stereotyping if you like, but the Liberals’ split over climate change, last August’s leadership bedlam and the dramatic growth of female independent candidates mean that in a close election the final outcome could rest on the results in a clutch of rich suburbs in affluent seats in NSW and Victoria. Listed in alphabetical order, the electorates are Flinders, Higgins and Kooyong in Melbourne and Warringah and Wentworth in Sydney.