Opinion
Election 2016: what the bookies can't tell you
Simon JackmanBetting markets are currently showing the Coalition the overwhelming favourites for Saturday's election. As of Friday afternoon, Centrebet has Labor on 7.00 to the Coalition's 1.10. Seat-by-seat betting markets tell a similar story. Both Sportsbet and Centrebet prices see Labor favoured in just eight Coalition seats, not enough to see the Coalition lose government: Macarthur (NSW), Capricornia (QLD), Page (NSW), Burt (WA), Petrie (QLD), Lyons (TAS), Eden-Monaro (NSW), Solomon (NT) are tipped to be Labor gains. No Labor seats are seen as falling to the Coalition, although Sportsbet's prices in Batman (VIC) favour the Greens over Labor.
Cowan (WA) was once tipped to fall to Labor; the betting markets have since swung back towards the Coalition again. Non-major party incumbents are all favoured to be returned: Andrew Wilkie is strongly favoured to retain Denison, as is Adam Bandt (Greens, Melbourne), Bob Katter (Kennedy, QLD), and Cathy McGowan (Indi, VIC). All are priced no greater than 1.15 (McGowan's price at Sportsbet).
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