Brookfield and EIG Partners need a “voting miracle” to secure approval from Origin Energy shareholders for their $20 billion takeover offer for the major energy supplier as Origin’s biggest shareholder digs in to vote against the deal.

The view from Sydney-based Saul Kavonic, who is set to join boutique firm MST Marquee, comes as Morningstar advises Origin shareholders to accept the deal, but acknowledges there is “a significant risk” that the takeover fails.