Canadian investment giant Brookfield Asset Management’s deal to buy Origin Energy for $18.7 billion is a big bet on Australia’s energy transition, which has been a frustrating, stop-start journey for decades.

Should Brookfield and its bid partner EIG steer the bid successfully through the regulatory minefield, it will raise the stakes in the race between a privately owned Origin and a publicly owned AGL Energy – Brookfield’s former target – to transform two of Australia’s largest domestic carbon emitters into model clean energy giants.