Vodafone’s court challenge to the competition regulator’s rejection of its merger with TPG Telecom paints a picture of a future telco market with two dominant vertically integrated players - Telstra and Optus – and two second-tier players struggling to compete.

The federal court will have to decide if this scenario is a realistic outcome or whether the future looks like the position championed by Rod Sims at the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) of four players competing vigorously in mobiles.