Why reports of an injury crisis in the AFL in season 2018 are a gross exaggeration

INJURY crisis — what injury crisis? The total number of AFL games missed through injury this season will be lower than the average for the past five years.

Charlie Dixon of the Power reacts after breaking his leg in the round 21 loss to the Eagles at Adelaide Oval. Picture: Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images

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IT’S excuse season. So beware which one you buy. Especially the time-honoured injury cop-out.

For starters, the most amazing thing about this year’s much publicised AFL injury crisis is that there actually isn’t one.

The fact is, the total number of AFL games missed through injury this season will be lower than the average for the past five years. And beyond Richmond, the spread of injury among premiership contenders has been so relatively even, that injury can’t be legitimately used as an excuse by any of them.

And the biggest reality that completely blows the injury excuse out of the water for underperforming clubs is the fact that Collingwood remains a premiership contender this year despite topping the list for total games missed by players from their clubs’ best 22.

Charlie Dixon is helped off with an ankle injury last week. Picture: Sarah Reed

Adelaide is third on that “stars missing” list. But any injury excuse the Crows attempt to sell to explain dropping from second last season to outside the eight, is also watered down by the fact that a part of their problem was self-inflicted.

Port Adelaide is 14th on the “stars missing” ladder. So given Port has actually had the fifth-best injury run of any team this year, it has less of an injury excuse for walking the finals knife-edge than most.

West Coast, by contrast, has put itself in the perfect position to upset Richmond this September, despite being without the face and ruck palm of their franchise, Nic Naitanui.

Adelaide’s Mitch McGovern is taken from the ground with a hamstring injury. Picture: Sarah Reed

The Western Bulldogs, without their injured captain Bob Murphy, won a flag two years ago through amazing unity and ingenuity.

And the Crows famously won back-to-back flags with their most dynamic forward, Tony Modra, on the sideline.

So don’t buy Charlie Dixon’s absence as a defining factor if Port Adelaide’s season fizzles to nothing from here. Because Hawthorn, which has risen from 12th last season, could just as easily be sooking about not having arguably their best player, the newly retired Cyril Rioli.

And given Champion Data rated Port Adelaide’s list the second best in the competition at the start of this season, Port should be in a position to cope better than most with the loss of a star or two.

Geelong superstar Patrick Dangerfield fed the injury crisis frenzy again this week when he called for the AFL to reduce the injury toll by reducing the length of games and the length of the season.

“What’s robbing the fans, is not getting to see the best players due to injury,” Dangerfield said, adding, “I think it’s linked back into the length of the season, length of games, and just the demands players are put under.

“Twenty-two games I see as too many … but the length of a game is a conversation piece that needs to be had.”

Dangerfield’s logic is sound. Fewer games and less game time will obviously lead to a drop in injuries, in the same way that if everyone left their cars in the garage more often, we would reduce car accidents and breakdowns.

But Dangerfield is also the president of the AFL Players Association. And the AFLPA, which met this week, is angling to secure a second mid-season bye from the AFL schedulers next season, on top of concessions that will help reduce physical and mental stress, and lengthen careers.

The AFL was blunt with its response for this column. Head of football operations Steve Hocking has an office full of analysts looking at dozens of ways to possibly tweak the game to make it better for everyone next season.

But reducing the length of games is not on his agenda.

“No discussion has been held on reducing game time,” Hocking said. In other words, injury is not actually a crisis screaming to be immediately addressed.

In fact, injury numbers look like being so ordinary, un-crisis like and evenly spread this year, the AFL is almost certain to leave the interchange cap exactly the same next season. If that happens, it is confirmation that the league is at ease with the player attrition rate emanating from the current mix of speed and fatigue.

So don’t fall for the age-old injury bluff card if it’s offered to you.

It’s rarely ever been an acceptable excuse. And it’s certainly not this year.