Wallabies result against All Blacks will play huge role in value of Rugby Australia’s next broadcast deal

Australia literally cannot afford to have its 23-year losing streak to the All Blacks in New Zealand extended. The future of the sport in this country could depend on it, writes Jamie Pandaram.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – SEPTEMBER 21: James Slipper of the Australian Wallabies looks on in the team huddle after losing The Rugby Championship & Bledisloe Cup match between Australia Wallabies and New Zealand All Blacks at Accor Stadium on September 21, 2024 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The Wallabies are the flagship on which Rugby Australia is selling its next broadcast rights, which has now become a huge gamble and places enormous pressure on the team to win against the All Blacks.

With Super Rugby Pacific downsizing, no details around a new club rugby championship, and a shrinking media market, RA is banking on the Wallabies turning their form around to lure the necessary income from a new deal to keep the game afloat.

The problem is, the Wallabies are now ranked an all-time low of 10th in the world rankings, below Fiji, Italy and Scotland.

They’ve not won the Bledisloe Cup in 22 years, and will finish last in this year’s Rugby Championship table.

Shattered Wallabies react to their last-gasp defeat to New Zealand in the opening Bledisloe Cup match. Picture: Getty

But defeating the All Blacks on Saturday evening would be an enormous boost not only for team spirits, but RA’s bargaining power at the negotiation table. Suddenly, this one game can be the difference of millions of dollars.

Their $29 million-a-year broadcast deal with Nine and Stan expires at the end of the year.

If no new extension is signed, bids will be open to other broadcasters from January.

Nine has already secured rights to the 2027 home World Cup, a known broadcasting smash hit, and so doesn’t need to have the 2026 rights to cash in on the game.

The broadcast deal will dictate much of the game’s future in Australia, from the engagement with Wallabies games to the broader longevity of Super Rugby Pacific, and structure of Sydney and Brisbane club rugby, with plans to introduce a national club competition from next year.

Rugby Australia CEO Phil Waugh and Chairman Dan Herbert have a huge job on their hands. Picture: Getty

RA is now selling a tournament with one less team after the Melbourne Rebels were axed, which means one less game per round.

The 2025 Super Rugby Pacific draw will be unveiled on Monday.

So the Wallabies are the brand, and the hope, RA is drawing on.

Having already lost any hopes of regaining the Bledisloe Cup with last week’s 31-28 loss to New Zealand, this match is about selling the dream that the Wallabies can turn their fortunes around not only to win the 2025 British & Irish Lions, but the 2027 World Cup.

Supporters will be rightly wary.

But as shown by the 68,000 who turned up to Accor Stadium last week to watch the Bledisloe Cup opener – despite the Wallabies suffering a record 67-27 loss to Argentina in their previous game – this group are not deserters.

The Wallabies have done their best to shake off support over two decades of failure, but their fans remain surprisingly stoic.

Scott Barrett proudly holds up the Bledisloe Cup after the All Blacks’ secured its retention las week. Picture: Getty

And with what’s to come; a Lions series that will see Australian cities transformed into seas of red as more than 30,000 fans descend next year, and the home World Cup that will draw the eyes of the nation, rugby has some strong selling features.

But it will be wasted if the Wallabies aren’t competitive.

To start that process, they must end their losing streak in New Zealand.

Not since 2001, in Dunedin, have the Wallabies beaten the All Blacks across the Tasman. It is a shockingly bad run.

But in their favour is a patchy All Blacks team still finding their way under coach Scott Robertson, and the city of Wellington, which has stunningly proved a booby-trap city for the Kiwis over the past eight years.

The All Blacks have one win since 2017 there, and that was six years ago. Their last victory in the capital was a 26-13 win over an undermanned France in June 2018.

They’ve since suffered three defeats and had two draws at “The Cake Tin”.

In previous years, the Wallabies have come close in the first Bledisloe only to be blown away in the second when there is no trophy on the line. This can’t happen again.

Can the Wallabies spring an upset against the All Blacks? The future of Australian rugby might depend on it. Picture: Getty

Nine and Stan are already planning to make a renewed bid for NRL broadcast rights from 2028, which will require a significant upgrade of the $115 million-a-year they fork out now to steal the majority of games away from Fox Sports and Kayo.

If they can’t be convinced to buy the Wallabies dream RA is selling, new partners must be found next year.

What may well be a blessing in disguise is the private equity investment that fell through for RA last year, forcing them to take up an $80 million debt facility that they expect to pay back through earnings from the Lions series and World Cup.

Had they signed a private equity deal, as New Zealand Rugby has done, a percentage of their earnings would have to filter through to the investors each year.

So RA is out on their own, and all-in on the Wallabies.

The result this weekend will determine who else is.

ALL BLACKS’ RECORD IN WELLINGTON

2024 – All Blacks LOST 30-38 to Argentina

2022 – All Blacks LOST 22-32 to Ireland

2020 – All Blacks DREW 16-all with Australia

2019 – All Blacks DREW 16-all with South Africa

2018 – All Blacks LOST 34-36 to South Africa

2018 – All Blacks WON 26-13 against France

2017 – All Blacks LOST 21-24 to British & Irish Lions

Originally published as Wallabies result against All Blacks will play huge role in value of Rugby Australia’s next broadcast deal