Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Everest Day at Royal Randwick
SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for Royal Randwick.
SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets for Everest Day at Royal Randwick.
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Heavy 8. Rail: True position.
R1 (12.30pm): VICTORY VEIN PLATE (1000m)
OVERVIEW: Tricky race to kick-off the day. I liked the trial of Speedycom and he is a half-brother to Eckstein, who has won three from five on rain affected surfaces. I’ve also been taken by the trials of Disruptor and Zoushack, and both of those can run well on debut. Anaheed also got through the heavy conditions well in a recent Warwick Farm trial and she comes from a family where a few of her siblings have handled wet ground in the past. Late betting moves will be important.
BETTING STRATEGY: SPEEDYCOM on top but monitor late betting.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Disruptor $4.80-$5 ($500 @ $4.80), Zoushack $6.50-$5.50 ($200 @ $6.50, $500 e/w @ $6/$2.10)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R2 (1.05pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Very open race with a host of chances. I think the $12 about Saxton Rock represents value. He has been good in two runs back, handles wet ground and gets the claim of Sam Weatherley. Arugula is flying and get a good run from the gate, while Mediterranean gets the blinkers on for the first time and is also adept in the wet. I’ve always had a bit of time for Ave. She comes through weaker form lines than a few of these but has a nice finish on her day and is proven on soft ground at least. Other chances to Lawan, Think Like A Fox, Velaro and Majestic Pedrille.
BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to SAXTON ROCK at $12.
R3 (1.40pm): REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400m)
OVERVIEW: This looks a nice race for the favourite Cristobal. She was disappointing first-up but came from well back with a big run to almost knock off Gem Song last start. The blinkers go on here, she is one from one on soft ground (defeating the unlucky Miss Fabulass that day as well) and this sets up really well providing it’s not a bog where her big weight could then become an issue. I’m So Sweet is only coming out of a Benchmark 66 at Rosehill but I loved the way she quickened when asked and she wasn’t entitled to win after being held up in the straight last start. That was her first run with the blinkers on. Bubbles’n’troubles didn’t have a great deal of luck in Melbourne last start and is a heavy track winner already (needs to pass a vet check to run), while Madam Rouge is better than she has showed at her past two starts.
BETTING STRATEGY: CRISTOBAL looks the best bet of the day to my eye at $3+ providing the track isn’t bottomless.
R4 (2.15pm): THE STAR MILE (1600m)
OVERVIEW: The $8 looks a good price about Goodfella here and he is going pretty well this campaign. He was wide and outclassed in an Epsom last start but his form prior was super and he lands on speed here with a winnable weight. He is unbeaten in two runs on wet ground and looks a terrific chance. I’m tipping Fierce Impact will likely go to Melbourne, so that leaves Stampede potentially as the main danger. He has trialled well for this and gets through wet ground. Araaja has been trialling well and she could jump out of the ground at her second prep in Australia. Kaonic is going well this campaign and he just doesn’t want it too wet. Sense Of Occasion was beaten a long way fresh but he gets the blinkers on again and his last three runs on wet tracks include a Group 1 win (Doomben Cup), a third to Winx and Hartnell in the Queen Elizabeth and a third in a Doncaster. He could be the big improver but there’s a query on where he is at and he does have 62kg.
BETTING STRATEGY: GOODFELLA to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sense Of Occasion $51-$34, Goodfella $8 unchanged ($350 @ $8, $200 @ $8)
R5 (2.50pm): THE KOSCIUSZKO (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Great race for the country horses. It’s hard to go past Victorem. He is just a beauty. He has been trialling super and he won the Country Championships Final so well in the autumn at Randwick. He just doesn’t want a bog. After All That should have beaten home Brave Smash first-up and his sectionals were outstanding that day in a Group race. He handles wet ground and will be flashing home. The Monstar is just a beauty and he also brings very good form lines into this (and loves the mud!). I thought Fuel was the best roughie. I know he hasn’t been racing against anywhere near the grade that some of these have but he just excels on wet ground and should get a good run just off them. Don’t Give A Damn goes really well fresh and did beat the flying Trekking two starts back, while Sharpe Hussler has a good turn of foot and is also proven in wet ground. He has claims as well.
BETTING STRATEGY: VICTOREM on top from AFTER ALL THAT. FUEL best roughie.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Victorem $3.60-$3.80-$3.70 ($300 @ $3.80, $200 @ $3.70, $200 @ $3.60), Don’t Give A Damn $4.60-$4 ($264 @ $4.80, $200 @ $4.60, $310 @ $4.20, $500 @ $4, $300 @ $4), Awesome Pluck $15-$17 ($325 e/w @ $16/$4.20)
R6 (3.30pm): SYDNEY STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Competitive edition of the Sydney Stakes. I’m with Tactical Advantage here and he just gets a lovely run just off the speed. He was dominant on the Kensington track last start and the 1200m shouldn’t be an issue. His form on wet ground is mixed. The one that could be over the odds is Clearly Innocent. He had no luck at all first-up last campaign and he loves wet ground. He will get back but can finish strongly here and his recent trial was fine for him. Pierata is the class horse of the race but he comes back from 1600m here and it seems a bit of an afterthought (blinkers go on again). He gets through soft OK and runs well nonetheless. Kemono is going well in Victoria and I remember Darren Weir saying he worked really well on a wet track earlier this prep. He is untried on wet ground on raceday but the gate probably cost him victory against Trekking last start. Boss Lane loves Randwick (course proper) and he can bounce back after a disappointing run on the Kensington track last start.
BETTING STRATEGY: TACTICAL ADVANTAGE to win plus you could make CLEARLY INNOCENT a winner at $13 as well as at his best he runs really well here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Jungle Edge $5.50 unchanged ($500 @ $5.50, $200 @ $5.50), Pierata $4.20-$4.60
R7 (4.15pm): THE TAB EVEREST (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Outstanding edition of The TAB Everest with many, many winning chances as the market suggests. Having said that, there would still be a few that I don’t think will win. They are Graff (afterthought and not sure he is seasoned enough), Viddora (just gives them too big a start?), Le Romain (great wet tracker but doubt he is the winner even if it’s bottomless), and Osborne Bulls (just below this level). You can add in US Navy Flag if the track is still in the heavy range and by all reports he doesn’t handle it. He comes under notice though on an improving track. That still leaves quite a few runners. It’s tough to split them but at this stage I’m with Santa Ana Lane and Shoals. I know they went hard in the Premiere but they both tick a lot of boxes. Santa Ana Lane has won Group 1s at his past two third-up attempts, he is proven over further and he likes wet tracks. His stablemate Shoals loves Randwick, draws well and loves wet ground. Of the others. Redzel was too keen off a setback last start and can bounce back, Vega Magic just needs a drying track and if we got back to a Soft 5 he is almost top pick, and In Her Time could well have won this race last year if she run in it (ran quicker time on the same day when winning the Sydney Stakes) and has all the upside in the world. She just wants a drying track but second-up she is a huge chance. Trapeze Artist absolutely flies third-up but I think he needs a drying track, while Brave Smash is capable but I still can’t get it out of my head that Kosciusko contender After All That should have beaten him home two starts back.
BETTING STRATEGY: SANTA ANA LANE just from SHOALS for me at this stage. Track pattern (fence or close to fence advantages Shoals, out wide/swooping advantages Santa Ana Lane) + how wet the track is could change things on race day. Great race!
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Redzel $7 unchanged ($1,000 e/w @ $7/$2.60, $1,000 @ $7 MULTIPLE TIMES), Santa Ana Lane $8-$8.50 ($700 @ $8, $500 @ $8 TWICE), Le Romain $21-$17-$18 ($250 e/w @ $21/$6, $100 x $400 e/w @ $21/$6), Brave Smash $13-$14 ($8,500 @ $14, $1,250 x $750 e/w @ $13/$4), In Her Time $11 unchanged ($2,000 @ $11, $500 @ $11 MULTIPLE TIMES), Shoals $7-$7.50 ($1,000 @ $7), Viddora $15-$16 ($600 e/w @ $16/$4.80, $1,000 @ $15, $500 e/w @ $15/$4.50 TWICE, $300 e/w @ $15/$4.50)
R8 (4.50pm): CRAVEN PLATE (2000m)
OVERVIEW: This does set up pretty well for Egg Tart and she just loves wet tracks. Her only defeat from five starts on soft or heavy ground was on a Soft 5 in the Liverpool City Cup this year where she had no luck and should have won the race. They should roll here and she will get her chance late. It’s Somewhat is flying this campaign and he seems to handle wet or dry (he won a Doncaster on a heavy 8). Arbeitsam should take some running down if he gets a breather in front but he could have company in the shape of Mandylion and Classic Uniform. Nettoyer and Moss ‘N’ Dale both love wet tracks and have rough claims, while Allergic pulled up with the thumps last start but is another that will love the track conditions and he is a rough place chance at big odds here if they go hard as it looks on paper.
BETTING STRATEGY: EGG TART on top but I could speck ALLERGIC the place (play the tote as I think he will drift) at big odds as well.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Moss ‘N’ Dale $15-$10 ($350 e/w @ $15/$4, $250 e/w @ $11/$3.30, $300 e/w @ $10/$3.10), Egg Tart $3.50-$3.20 ($1,000 @ $3.40, $500 e/w @ $3.40/$1.65, $500 @ $3.40, $300 @ $3.20), Nettoyer $101-$31-$26
R9 (5.35pm): ST LEGER STAKES (2600m)
OVERVIEW: A race where conditions will be key. I want to be with Libran if the track isn’t too wet or chopped up by this time of the day. He has won this race in the past and he finally draws a gate to sit closer. He is flying, the tempo was against him in The Metropolitan and he meets Patrick Erin 7kg better off from that race. Auvray also gets an 8kg swing on Patrick Erin and the knock is the wet track. He would need it to really dry out but gee I would be keen on him if it was a dry track (unfortunately that won’t happen!). Patrick Erin runs well again despite the 8.5kg rise in the weights, while Haripour is in winning form interstate but the form out of his last start win hasn’t really stacked up. One Foot In Heaven will appreciate a wet track and this extra distance as well.
BETTING STRATEGY: LIBRAN if it’s not too wet.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: One Foot In Heaven $7.50-$6.50, Wall Of Fire $14-$11, Haripour $3.60-$4
R10 (6.10pm): CELLARBRATIONS SPRINT (1000m)
OVERVIEW: Good race to finish the day but how wet the track is by now is the big question. The two that look hardest to beat are Esperance and Brook Magic. Esperance is going really well and his only run on a soft track early in his career suggests he likes wet ground (heavy unknown though). Brook Magic is a super fresh horse and this looks a real target race off a nice trial. Wet ground is no issue for her. The one that is over the odds if it’s really wet by now is Prince Mayted. He is a swimmer and his run was better than it looked at Rosehill last start where he had to cover ground. Bryan will be getting home but happy to focus around Esperance, Brook Magic and Prince Mayted.
BETTING STRATEGY: ESPERANCE on top but PRINCE MAYTED looks a good value each-way play if the track is really wet. Include BROOK MAGIC with Esperance and Prince Mayted in quinellas, trifectas.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Esperance $4.20-$4.60 ($1,200 x $2,400 e/w @ $4.60/$2)
TURF TALK
Matt Jones and Shayne O’Cass discuss their best bets for the weekend.
SO: The build-up is nearly over, it’s Everest time. I’ll ask you who you like in
a second, buddy, but hasn’t the rain given the race a whole new layer of intrigue?
MJ: It has. But I am still banking on the track not being bottomless. I have been an In Her Time fan for ages and I’m tipping her to beat Shoals and Santa Ana Lane. I could even make a case for Le Romain. I’ve had a small wager on him into The Monstar in the Kosciuszko.
SO: I am a Shoals man in The Everest. She has a lovely set of numbers and the wet is to her advantage. Vega Magic was huge in The Everest last year; got him second again. I think Jenny Graham might quinella The Kosciuszko with Victorem and Awesome Pluck. The Sydney Stakes is The Everest consolation. What a race.
MJ: I am sticking with John O’Shea’s Kaepernick after he ran super behind Redzel and has a fantastic Randwick record. He’s drawn well but there are plenty of dangers.
SO: Yes. Egyptian Symbol and it went up at $61. Haven’t they heard of Ryan Moore, or seen her wet form, or her fresh form, or watched her trial. I have a big tip in the two-year-old race but you go first.
MJ: Yes, I think Gary Portelli can win it with Disruptor. I loved the way he travelled up to them nicely under no pressure — he could be ready to explode. Will he handle the wet, but you’re the breeding man.
SO: He’s by a Sebring son (Dissident) out of a Snitzel mare. Tick, tick. Looked like Rough Habit in his trial. This is a nice colt, I reckon. I am a Dixie Blossoms man in the Craven Plate, she’s going to eat up the 2000m and loves the slop.
MJ: I’m with Invictus Prince. Remember when he ran second to Winx first-up? He has run on well over the mile and is looking for the 2000m trip now. I think he’ll handle a wet track.
SO: I know we concur about the St Leger. One Foot In Heaven has one foot on the till. Like that?
MJ: This horse finally gets a wet track, let’s just name some of the horses he has finished close behind this preparation — Avilius, Ace High and Unforgotten.
SO: That’ll do me.
Originally published as Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Everest Day at Royal Randwick