Nick Quinn, Michael Manley: Expert tips, betting analysis for both Caulfield and Randwick

TAB tipping guru Nick Quinn talks Sydney, Herald Sun form expert Michael Manley gives you everything you need and more for Caulfield, while trainer Matt Cumani virtually hands you a winner.

Classy galloper Mr Quickie deserves a change of luck and he’s one of the headline acts on the bumper Caulfield program, says leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.

See what else captures Manley’s eye and that of TAB punting guru Nick Quinn on the owners and breeders’ race day.

CHECK OUT QUINNY’S RANDWICK PREVIEW BELOW

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BEST BET

MR QUICKIE (R4, No.1 $1.80)

Nothing has gone right for him at his last two starts where he has been held up each time in the All Star Mile and then the Doncaster Mile. Step up to 2000m will also suit and he’s a top class galloper on his day.

NEXT BEST

PIPPIE (R3, No.2 $2)

She returns to the scene of her Oakleigh Plate win where she used her blinding speed in the early stages to destroy her rivals. Look for her to do the same in this.

AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (R9, No.12 $5)

Brilliant three-year-old filly who possesses a withering finishing burst which she used last start to win at Sandown Lakeside. She’s drawn out but that suits her style of racing. By the last race swoopers might be to the fore.

BEST EACH-WAY

KUBRICK (R5, No.5 $7)

He’s been plagued by unsuitable wet tracks in Sydney recently. His firm track form is excellent where he’s been competitive against the best of his age group.

BEST ROUGHIE

I’M TELLING YA (R3, No.7 $21)

He’s racing in career best form and he’ll love the fast speed which will be set by Pippie. If she’s off her game or the track is playing to swoopers no surprise to see him run a big race.

Trainer Matt Cumani is upbeat about the chances of Declares War.

TRAINERS

MATT CUMANI

DECLARES WAR (R4, No.4 $6)

“This is the race we’ve set him for. He’s fourth run back and I think he’s ready to win.”

KHOEKHOE (R6, No.2 $14)

“He raced up to his jump-out when he won at Echuca in brilliant style last start. If he can reproduce that he’s got to go close.”

COUP DE TONNERRE (R6, No.5 $23)

“I was really happy with his second behind Khoekhoe. He’s more of a free goer than Khoekhoe and he’ll be in a good spot. He’ll run a big race.”

SAM FREEDMAN (assistant)

LYRE (R7, No.9 $6)

“She’s been freshened up since her last start in Sydney. She’s only had one jump-out which we were pleased with. She’s got improvement to come but she should run well.”

EARLY QUADDIE

1,3,6/2,4,7/1,4/1,3,5,6,10

$100 flexi for 111.11%

BIG6

1/1,3,5,6/1,2,5,7,10/4,9,10/2,10/8,12

$100 flexi for 41.66%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2,4,5,8,10,11,12,13,15

Race 7: 1,4,9,10

Race 8: 2,4,10

Race 9: 1,2,8,9,12

$100 flexi for 18.51%

FIRST LEG

Race 6

This is a tough assignment. Taking the field is certainly a sound option. We’ll take eight in the hope we can survive the first leg. They are KHOEKHOE (2), JUST A TRIBUTE (4), COUP DE TONNERRE (5), WRITE ON (8), RIVER NIGHT (10), TARCOOLA DIVA (11), MISS INBETWEEN (12), CHROME ANGEL (13) and ARCHIPETA BEACH (15).

1st Leg: 2,4,5,8,10,11,12,13,15

SECOND LEG

Race 7

Take four capable sprinters in this which are the two horses which finished third in Oakleigh Plate in the last two years CRYSTAL DREAMER (1) and EDUARDO (4). Add last year’s Blue Diamond Stakes winner LYRE (9) and track specialist HUMMA HUMMA (10).

2nd Leg: 1,4,9,10

THIRD LEG

Race 8

Two strong chances in the filly’s BROADWAYANDFOURTH (2) and KNOWLES (10). For value add in STAND TO ATTENTION (4) who came from well back to win his maiden at Kilmore with authority.

3rd Leg: 2,4,10

 

FOURTH LEG

Race 9

Several promising three-year-olds in action so it’s not an easy finish. Take BEEHUNTER (1) and TOORADIN (2) who will both be suited by a firmer track. Then add the filly’s MOONLIGHT MAID (8), SCORE (9) and AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (12).

4th Leg: 1,2,8,9,12.

SKINNY QUADDIE

Take the two impressive last start country winners, KHOEKHOE (2) and ARCHIPETA BEACH (15) and hope they are better than their rivals. Take EDURADO (4), LYRE (9) and HUMMA HUMMA (10) in the second leg. In the third leg take the filly’s BROADWAYANDFOURTH (2) and KNOWLES (10). Also stick with the girls in the last leg and come home with only MOONLIGHT MAID (8) and AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (12).

1st Leg: 2,15

2nd Leg: 4,9,10

3rd Leg: 2,10

4th Leg: 8,12

$25 flexi for 104.16%

FOUR $50 BETS WITH MICHAEL MANLEY

CAULFIELD RACE 4

VOBIS GOLD HEATH (2000m)

$50 win MR QUICKIE (1) at $1.80

Drops massively in class on his last two starts where he hasn’t had a lot of luck in. Damien Oliver goes on, he’ll be suited by stepping up in distance to 2000m and he looks a level above his rivals.

CAULFIELD RACE 9

THE VOBIS SIRES GUINEAS (1600m, 3YO)

$25 each-way AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (12) at $5/$2

Brilliant filly who can reel off a quick closing sectional. She’s drawn out which suits her style of racing. She also has Damien Oliver on and look for her to swoop home.

RANDWICK RACE 5

GROUP 1 CHAMPAGNE STAKES (1600m, 2YO)

$50 win KING’S LEGACY (1) at $2.60

Sprinted hard to win the ATC Sires’ Produce Stakes in the closing stages. 1600m should suit him even better. 40 horses have completed the Sires and Champagne double.

RANDWICK RACE 7

GROUP 1 ALL AGED STAKES (1400m, WFA)

$25 win on SANTA ANA LANE (1) at $5 and $25 win on PIERATA (2) at $4.20

There’s rarely little between this pair when they meet but SAL always has the upper hand. Both ran well behind Nature Strip in the T.J Smith Stakes and will be suited by step up to 1400m. Pierata’s advantage is that he’s drawn out.

MORE RACING

WEEKEND BEST BETS: WINNERS ACROSS FOUR STATES

RACE 1: 12.15PM BENCHMARK 78 (1400M)

JUMBO OZAKI (6) is racing consistently. Didn’t have the best of runs last start at Bendigo last start as he was three wide throughout where he fought on well for second behind smart horse in Big Night Out. He’s had four starts over 1400m for a win, two seconds and a third. Former Kiwi SIMPLY OPTIMISTIC (4) finished an unlucky fourth behind Coruscate at his first Victorian run as he was held up for a run. He loves it wet. SIKORSKY (9) was also unlucky in the same race. VILLA SARCHI (10) will get back but will love the fast speed, Finished on well for second behind Buffalo Rover in a race BATTLE TORQUE (11) finished third in. Former Tassie galloper SHOT OF IRISH (2) races well fresh. KAPLUMPICH (3) tends to fly under the radar. Ran on well when first-up fourth over 1000m at Bendigo. WRITE YOUR NAME (7) and can mix his form but is a better horse than last start failure at Bendigo indicates LEITER (8) was never a winning chance over 1100m last week at Caulfield. This is first attempt at 1400m

SUGGESTED BET: JUMBO OZAKI EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Simply Optimistic $8-$6 $300 @ $7.50; Battle Torque $15-$10 $240 e/w @ $13/$4

RACE 2: 12.50PM VOBIS GOLD DISTAFF (1400M, MARES)

CLARICE CLIFFS (6) ran on to finish second in the Bendigo Gold Bracelet behind Snogging after having had a good run. She should again be suited by the likely fast speed.

TWITCHY FRANK (1) finished third in that race which was the same position she finished in last year before she won this race. She’s used to carrying big weights and can handle all conditions. She led last year and Mark Zahra could reprise those tactics. From her last six starts she’s run one second, four thirds and a fourth.

SHOKORA (3) tends to bob up when least expected. She’s had three runs this track and distance for two fourths in good company.

HONEY ESPRIT (5) has won two of her past three starts where she has led throughout.

SUGGESTED BET: CLARICE CLIFFS THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Part Time Lover $750 @ $17

RACE 3: 1.25PM VOBIS GOLD SPRINT (1200M)

Hard to go past the speed machine PIPPIE (2). Two starts ago she produced a whirlwind speed from the outset when she won the Oakleigh Plate. She then surprisingly didn’t lead when fourth behind Loving Gaby in the William Reid Stakes where she held her position throughout. That’s great form for this. She’s a Group 3 winner this track and distance third-up. Aside from her it’s an even race. ASHLOR (4) finished second to the in-form Diamond Effort at his last start a race where FINE DANE (6) finished third in. TELEPLAY (3) is a classy mare resuming. I’M TELLING YA (7) will relish the fast speed and is racing in career best form. FAATINAH (1), SIRIUS SUSPECT (5) and VAINSTREAM shouldn’t be far away.

SUGGESTED BET: PIPPIE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pippie $2.15-$1.95-$2 $1000 [twice] and $500 @ $2 | $500 @ $1.95; Teleplay $15-$13 $200 @ $14; Ashlor $10-$11-$9 $490 and $300 @ $11; Sirius Suspect $7-$7.50-$6.50 $400 @ $7.50 | $400 @ $7; Fine Dane $31-$21

Pippie looks one of the bets of the day.

RACE 4: 2PM GOLD HEATH (2000M)

Despite drawing an outside barrier MR QUICKIE (1) managed to get cluttered up and didn’t have every chance when mid-field in the Doncaster Mile. Similar story in the All-Star Mile before that. All of his recent starts have been in much tougher company than this. He’s a Group 1 winner and he also finished third in last year’s Makybe Diva Stakes. He’s also looking for 2000m. DECLARES WAR (4) should be ready to win after three goods runs back from a spell as he’ll be better suited over 2000m. He will carry four kilos less than Mr Quickie and has been set for this. THINK WE’RE DUE (7) showed good fight to lead throughout to win at Cranbourne last start. SENTIMENTALIST (6) bolted in with his hometown Cup at Stawell last Sunday.

SUGGESTED BET: MR QUICKIE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sopressa $11-$10 $200 @ $11

RACE 5 2.40PM VOBIS GOLD MILE (1600M)

Chris Waller has sent smart three-year-old KUBRICK (5) to Melbourne as he has been plagued by unsuitable wet tracks in Sydney. At his last appearance on a good track he won the Bondi Stakes over 1600m at Randwick defeating Pancho. He finished fifth in last year’s Golden Rose chasing home the likes of Bivouac, Exceedance and Yes Yes Yes. ICONOCLASM (1) fought on well for second behind Hellova Street in the Bendigo Mile. Third run back in he should be ready to fire. SO SI BON (3) is racing consistently as he usually does without winning. Blinkers and tongue tie go back on as well as Mark Zahra who has had three rides on him for three wins. MAMZELLE TESS (6) is racing in career best form. Last start she won the Group 2 Sunline Stakes at The Valley defeating subsequent Victoria Handicap winner Bam’s On Fire. BENITOITE (100 fought on well last start after working forward early due to being trapped out wide so her effort to finish third was sound behind Exasperate.

SUGGESTED BET: KUBRICK EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: So Si Bon $7-$7.50-$6 $300 @ $7 | $200 x $300 @ $6/$2.30; Mamzelle Tess $11-$8; Mahamedeis $13-$8 $300 @ $11 | $200 @ $9

Expect Kubrick to show significant improvement if the track is rated better than soft.

RACE 6: 3.20PM THE SHOWDOWN (1200M, 2YO)

KHOEKHOE (2) charged home from last on the turn when he ran down his stablemate COUPE DE TONNERRE (5) to win at Echuca at his second start where he ran the second fastest last 200m for the day. Geelong debut winner ARCHIPETA BEACH (15) camped on the speed and then was eased to the middle of the track when she was an impressive winner. JUST A TRIBUTE (4) finished on strongly to defeat Ready For Caviar at Benalla. TARCOOLA DIVA (11) improved when second here last week.

IDEAS MAN (1) didn’t handle the heavy track last start at Caulfield. He hasn’t won since his debut at The Valley. RIVER NIGHT (10) broke through for well deserved win here two starts ago then had a luckless run in the Bendigo Gold Dash where she was trapped wide. Adelaide visitor BEAU ROSSA (7) flew home at her debut to finish third. Mark Newnham has brought down WRITE ON (8) who finished third at her debut at Kembla Grange where she led.

SUGGESTED BET: KHOEKHOE EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: River Night $8.50-$6.50; Tarcoola Diva $13-$9; Archipeta Beach $7-$5.50 $300 @ $7; Halvoya (2E) $17-$12

RACE 7: 4PM BEL ESPRIT STAKES (1100m)

EDUARDO (4) resumes from a spell and he looked sharp in a recent Cranbourne 800m jump-out. He finished third in this race last year. He had two runs last spring for a first-up third to Faatinah and then a close-up fourth to Nature Strip both over 1000m at The Valley.

Classy filly LYRE (9) returns after being freshened up after two starts with her last one a fourth behind Probabeel in the Group 1 Surround Stakes at Randwick. She’s a Blue Diamond winner at this track. HUMMA HUMMA (10) loves this track and distance and she races well fresh. CRYSTAL DREAMER (1) is Mr Dependable in this type of race. He hasn’t started since he finished third in the Oakleigh Plate. Previous starts this track and distance he defeated Gytrash. Ex Perth galloper ACHERNAR STAR (2) makes his Melbourne debut and he races well fresh.

RUNSON (7) has struck form again. Only run down by the in-form Diamond Effort at his last start over 1200m at this circuit. WILLIAM THOMAS (8) was slowly away and couldn’t sprint home here last week. He’s won two from three this track and distance and dry track will suit.

SUGGESTED BET: EDUARDO EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Eduardo $8-$5.50; William Thomas $17-$15 $400 @ $15; Miss Iano $230 @ $23; News Girl $15-$17-$16 $500 and $450 @ $17

RACE 8: 4.40PM VOBIS GOLD DASH (1100M, 3YO)

Should be good speed in this and by the end of the day they maybe playing away from the fence. BROADWAYANDFOURTH (2) resumed with excellent run on effort for fourth behind Ancestry on a heavy track here on a day which played to on-pacers. She showed a stack of talent last spring which ended with an 8th in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. Hardest to beat should be KNOWLES (10) who finished second in that race at Caulfield. She’ll be better suited on a firm track. STAND TO ATTENTION (4) also showed promise last spring and he resumed with impressive run on effort to win his maiden at Kilmore. SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (1) should be able to lead clearly which improves his chances. FELICIA () has had two starts in Adelaide for two four lengths wins. If MASKED CRUSADER (19) gains a run he’ll be hard to beat. SCREENAGER () has claims.

SUGGESTED BET: BROADWAYANDFOURTH EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Knowles $6.50-$4.60 $300 @ $6; Masked Crusader (3E) $500 @ $2.80.

Affair To Remember only needs to repeat her Sandown performance to be right in it in the last race.

RACE 9: 5.15PM VOBIS SIRES GUINEAS (1600M, 3YO)

AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (12) flew home to run down a smart filly in Sierra Sue to win at Sandown last start. She recorded the third fastest last 400m for the day and she was only second-up. Classy filly MOONLIGHT MAID (8) finished on strongly for first-up sixth in the Sunline Stakes. She’s back to her own age group. BEEHUNTER (1) wasn’t suited by the wet track and was also trapped wide throughout when sixth behind The Lifeline. TOORADIN (2) tried hard in the same race to finish fourth and he’ll also be better suited by a firmer track. OCULAR (3) is racing well. SCORE (9) finished on well for second in the Bendigo Guineas behind a smart horse.

SUGGESTED BET: AFFAIR TO REMEMBER THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ocular $7-$6 $300 @ $7; Moonlight Maid $6-$4.80; Don’ttelltheboss $15-$13

QUINNY’S TAKE

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn looks for a winner at Royal Randwick on the final day of the Sydney autumn carnival and finds one for a blast in the last Caulfield on Saturday.

BEST BET

KEMENTARI the place (Randwick, Race 8, No. 2)

Will Kementari bounce back to his best in the Hall Mark Stakes? Picture: AAP

VALUE BET

MOONLIGHT MAID (Caulfield, Race 9, No. 8)

LAY OF THE WEEK

GYTRASH (Morphettville, Race 6, No. 1)

CAULFIELD

RACE 9: VOBIS SIRES GUINEAS

An open way to end the day, which is the theme of the program. Despite the wide gate, Affair To Remember has been posted a $4.40 favourite. He won well at Sandown and with Damian Oliver in the saddle should be respected.

The runner that interests me is the $6 second elect, Moonlight Maid. This race is over 1600m, a trip where she won the Group 2 Edward Manifold at Flemington last spring. She will take improvement from her first-up run and looks a good each-way play.

The other runner I am respecting is Beehunter. He ran well at Sandown then was not suited by the tempo last start and can feature here.

SUGGESTED BET: MOONLIGHT MAID EACH-WAY

Moonlight Maid is good each-way value in the last at Caulfield on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

ROYAL RANDWICK

RACE 3: JHB CARR STAKES

Punters are wasting no time in backing Rubisaki to claim a sixth straight victory. Patrick Payne’s filly attracted a bet of $10,000 at $1.70 within minutes of the market opening and has firmed to $1.60. She looks a good anchor for multi bets. Akari is on the second line of betting at $7.50 and looks the logical danger. She chased home Rubisaki into third last start and can place again.

SUGGESTED BET: RUBISAKI THE WIN

RACE 7: ALL AGED STAKES

A splendid edition of the All Aged Stakes, with Santa Ana Lane $4.20 favourite after the barrier draw. After an eye-catching second last start in the T.J Smith Stakes, Santa Ana Lane should appreciate stepping to 1400m. Pre-post bets on Santa Ana Lane include $2000 at $4.50 and $2000 at $4. The only negative with Santa Ana Lane is that he is winless in six starts since claiming the 2019 T.J Smith Stakes.

Defending champion Pierata and Newmarket Handicap winner Bivouac are on the second line of betting at $4.80. Bivouac is the hardest runner to assess. He looked brilliant winning the Newmarket at Flemington before fading at The Valley in the William Reid. Then he was set an impossible task in the T.J Smith after being hooked back at the start. He must be respected.

At longer odds, there has been money for Tofane, who has been backed from $15 into $13, including one bet of $500 at $14. The Mike Moroney-trained mare comes into the race after an eye-catching fifth behind Nature Strip in the T.J Smith Stakes and should be included in the multiples at longer odds. One punter has had $1000 on Fasika at $19.

SUGGESTED BET: SANTA ANA LANE THE PLACE

Santa Ana Lane hasn’t won since taking out the TJ Smith Stakes last year. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8: HALL MARK STAKES

Enigmatic Kementari could return to the winners’ list for the first time since he won the Randwick Guineas in March, 2018. He worked home well for third when having his first start as a gelding at Rosehill Gardens, but is winless his past 11 starts.

He has been backed from $4.80 into $4.60. He is the runner to beat, but the way to play it might be to have four units the place and one unit the win. The James Cummings stable has the top three in the market, with Deprive $4.40 favourite and Everest placegetter Trekking at $6.

SUGGESTED BET: KEMENTARI THE PLACE

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Originally published as Nick Quinn, Michael Manley: Expert tips, betting analysis for both Caulfield and Randwick