Muswellbrook preview: Tips, best bets and inside mail

Trainer Julie Holloway says it will be hard to contain her excitement if debutant Shreve is victorious at Muswellbrook on Sunday.

Racing is at Muswellbrook on Sunday.

Just after 12.45pm on Sunday a mighty roar might be heard coming out of Muswellbrook.

Julie Holloway has warned the general public.

“You’ll hear me in Sydney if he gets up,” Holloway said.

“It would be more than a thrill if he won. I reckon I’ll go through the roof.”

The Wyong trainer is talking about her debutant Shreve who goes around in the opening race for three-year-olds over 1000m.

The young horse is by Bobby’s Kitten who won a memorable Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (1000m) and the Grade 2 Pilgram Stakes and Grade 2 Penn Mile Stakes in America.

“His dad was a pretty handy horse,” Holloway said.

“He won the Breeders Cup and it was quite impressive. I watched the reply of it again the other day and it was a very impressive win coming from the back.

“If his son can be half as good as that I’ll be happy.”

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And one of the men in charge at Australian Bloodstock is the reason Holloway has the son of Bobby’s Kitten.

“I’ve known Jamie Lovett for a long time. He’s been really good friend and I rang him and asked him if he had one for lease and owned this one,” Holloway said.

“He always thought he had a bit of ability but would take time and that was fine with me.

“He’s going well but has taken a while to get where he is. He’s one of those horses that has quirkiness about him and it seems like we’ve sorted him out.

“He’s had a few preparations so I’m keen to give him a few runs now but he won’t have many, just a couple of starts so he can mature and learn his trade as a baby.”

Shreve ran third in his first barrier trial behind the handy type Fielding last December before being spelled for 18 weeks.

He’s had one 820m trial this time in and won it in fine fashion by more than three lengths.

He’ll be ridden by Kody Nestor out of barrier eight today and he will race Shreve positive out of the barriers in what looks like a decent enough field with the likes of Wategos, Arale and Klinsmann.

Holloway thinks her horse will match it with them for much of the way, if not all of the way on debut.

“He’s got a bit of speed about him. He’s got to do it in a race yet which is also a different story,” she said.

“From his jump outs, he’s shown a fair bit of gate speed so I think he can get across.

“He can look around a bit so he has the blinkers on but he also seems to have that competitive spirit and wants to do it.

“He’s shown enough to suggest he’ll go well but he’s still got to prove himself. He was only in a barrier trial and you don’t know how the other horses were doing and they were also probably just out there for a day out.”

MATT JONES’ TOP SELECTIONS

BEST BET

Race 4 No.7: AFEWCHOICEWORDS

The well-bred filly is now racing for Brett Cavanough after previously being in the Chris Waller yard where her form was good enough to be winning in this part of the state.

NEXT BEST

Race 1 No.8: WATEGOS

He’s back to his own age group here after running nicely on debut at the provincials and gets onto a slightly better track here to help second-up.

VALUE BET

Race 7 No.4: EUPHRATES DREAM

She’s drawn out which is the issue but her barrier trial form isn’t and she’s raced in stronger events than this last prep so they’re here for a win fresh.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 5, 7, 11

Race 5: 2, 4, 5, 7

Race 6: 1, 2, 5, 7

Race 7: 2, 4, 5, 9

TRAINER TO WATCH

Peter and Paul Snowden have three horses drawn poorly but they’re not coming out here to lose. Luisana is on debut and got better as its barrier trial went on and they’ve taken Arale off a bush trainer which says something.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Ashley Morgan will fancy his chances on Wategos, Hard To Excel and Street Candi in the first three races.

Ashley Morgan can get his day off to a good start at Muswellbrook.

INSIDE MAIL FOR MUSWELLBROOK

RACE 1

Wategos ran third on debut at Kembla Grange on a big track and will welcome a soft track now and the horse that won has come out and nearly won again and he races against his own age here which helps. Klinsmann has been given a good hit out at the trials to be ready fresh and showed enough in his first prep to have support here. Shikanic should push forward again and peaks now third-up so should be showing his best now. Arale has gone from a county stable to Peter and Paul Snowden which is rare to see but you wouldn’t think she’d go backwards under them and she ran well enough at her only two runs last time in. Shreve looks promising too and has plenty of gate speed so looks well placed in a 1000m event first-up.

Bet: boxed trifecta 7, 8, 9.

RACE 2

Discompose looks well placed at her home track and ticks all the boxes heading into this. She was a good second first-up and the stable has no doubt be waiting to get back to this track. Hard to beat. Freddie Eddie is placed well here too with the claim and good barrier. He also ran second first-up and loves the trip. Zapluck and Sipharderson have been going in lower grade but this much of a step up and they’re more than capable. Hard To Excel is more up to this grade too after showing enough in better races to date.

Bet: Discompose to win.

RACE 3

Kimwantstogetahead didn’t get a lot of luck first-up at Taree over 1412m and will probably have to weave through them again from a wide gate which probably makes her take a sit but she’ll be coming on. I Am Convincing likes to race forward and that’s why he’s been so consistent since a freshen up and all he has to do is hold his form and he’ll be fighting it out again. Miss Dungog just couldn’t sprint with them on debut over 1200m but the 1500m should suit now. Street Candi will want the speed to be on so she has the chance to have the last crack at them.

Bet: Street Candi to win.

RACE 4

Thunder Knob has been less than two lengths off them this time in and he’s placed six times from 11 starts. The trouble is, he hasn’t been able to convert one to win yet. Surely today is his day. Just One Look is showing improvement and is on a quicker back up now and gets a cushy gate and will have support. Luisana only got better as her 1045m barrier trial went on so 1280m fresh shouldn’t be an issue for a powerful stable. Afewchoicewords has been transferred from Chris Waller to Brett Cavanough he’s no doubt got something to work with after running close behind the winners at Newcastle and Kembla Grange.

Bet: Afewchoicewords to win.

RACE 5

Aperol Sprint is fit enough to be running this out strongly now. Perhaps the step up from a mile to 2200m last start was a tough too much but it would’ve had him ready for this 2300m now. Lord Tropicana ran over 2100m off a four-week break and is going into this another month between runs but has done well at this trip more than once in the past. Careering Away gets a good weight relief and possibly leads from an inside draw and has been racing more than anything in this race. He has placed 26 times but only won eight times.

Bet: Quinella 2, 4.

RACE 6

Ceasefire has run in a Kosciuszko already in his first eight runs and he’s won three times already and will be better for the first-up run at this track. Royale Return came from well back to run them down at Port Macquarie first-up then just ran into a runaway Bethencourt in town last time so this will be a good relief for him. Noble Beauty will also appreciate running in the bush for the first time since her debut and she’s won at the provincials and ran well in town along the way and loves the trip. Buffet Buster gets in with a winnable weight and its hard to knock his form.

Bet: Ceasefire to win.

RACE 7

Lightfast could end a good day for Paul Messara. He won well at Tamworth fresh then lost in a head bob here last start. He stays at 1000m which suits and gets barrier three where he can stalk the speed again. Maha’s Choice comes up from a top Melbourne stable to race for Brett Cavanough and he won two runs back before fading at Moonee Valley in March. These Melbourne city horses usually come up to the NSW bush and win quickly. Euphrates Dream trialled up in good fashion and this isn’t the hardest race she’s been in and might be the one to consider at decent odds.

Bet: Euphrates Dream each-way.

Originally published as Muswellbrook preview: Tips, best bets and inside mail