Grafton races, tips, best bets and analysis
Fresh off tipping seven winners at Randwick, racing writer Matt Jones is keen on two Warren Gavenlock-trained horses with Country Championships ambitions at Grafton. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Plonka is without doubt Warren Gavenlock’s best horse racing on Thursday but the Coffs Harbour trainer doesn’t quite think he’s his best winning chance.
That’s because he has put Alternative Facts in a Benchmark 58 Handicap (1420m) as he tries to give her a confidence-boosting win before the Country Championships qualifier at her home track on February 15.
“I think she’s still a Country Championships contender,” Gavenlock said. “She needs to finish at the pointy end of this race, though. She just needs to carry the weight and run out the 1400m but she’s a big, strong mare.
Stream over 50 sports Live & On-Demand with KAYO SPORTS on your TV, computer, mobile or tablet. Just $25/month, no lock-in contract. Get your 14-day free trial and start streaming instantly >
“We were going down to Newcastle on Saturday but it was called off due to the heat, which was probably fortunate.
“She deserves this weight. I thought she was in a winnable race at Newcastle last weekend.
“I think she’s my best winning chance because of the race she’s in. This isn’t even half the quality of the Newcastle race, so we’ve got to be going into it expecting to win.”
Alternative Facts has run well without winning this time in.
She has always come from well back in her races and looked great on the line, which is why Gavenlock can be forgiven for thinking she should have won a race already this time in.
MATT JONES’S TOP PICKS
BEST BET: ALTERNATIVE FACTS (Race 2, No.1)
She has been running well without winning this preparation but this is the race for her. She just needs to hold her form and she will win a Benchmark 58 race.
NEXT BEST: PLONKA (Race 4, No.5)
He proved last start he was up to Open company horses in the bush when running second first-up. He’s undefeated second-up and loves this trip.
BEST VALUE: SCO MO EAGLE (Race 7, No.1)
We will have to rely on him behaving himself in the enclosure and on the way to the barriers.
If he does, he has the ability to win a Class 1 in the bush.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1, 2, 3, 6
Race 6: 14
Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 9
Race 8: 2, 4, 5, 9
TRAINER TO WATCH
ETHAN ENSBY can land two winners. Lets Torque A Deel and Flying Pretty look good hopes in the first and fifth races.
JOCKEY TO WATCH
BEN LOOKER nearly has a full book and should go close with Alternative Facts and Hubble.
SCROLL DOWN FOR MATT’S EXTENDED PREVIEW & TIPS
*****
“She was one of the only horses to make ground at Port Macquarie last start,” he said.
Gavenlock’s top horse Plonka is once again racing in the highest-quality race on the card, an Open Handicap (1215m), after he ran second in one first-up at Grafton over 1000m.
“I was thrilled with his last run in his first crack at open company when he was fresh,” Gavenlock said. “He got back a bit and hit the line well. He took a lot of ground off the leader, which ran well on its own.”
Plonka, who has already won a Highway Handicap, is undefeated in two second-up runs and has won twice and finished second in three attempts at 1200m, so things map well for him here.
He’s in a huge clump of horses rated a $26 chance to win the $500,000 Country Championships Final (1400m) at Randwick on day one of The Championships on April 4.
Notation is the $8 favourite for the rich series.
But if Plonka can put in two top runs in the next couple of starts he will attract notice.
It starts today and Gavenlock wants to see him win.
“He’s going to go close to winning,’’ he said. “My only concern is that the rail is out 4.5m but I expect him to get back and hit the line. We’re right on track at the moment. This is the lead-up run to the Country Championships.”
Plonka is set to start a raging odds-on favourite, while Alternative Facts may start around evens. Plonka’s main danger, Desert Marshal, is in very good form and coming off a win but has drawn gate 11.
Meantime, local trainer Dwayne Schmidt thinks this time next year he may be getting new stable edition Sco Mo Eagle ready for a tilt at the Country Championships, which is why he’s very excited to see him make his debut for the stable on Thursday.
The lightly raced I Am Invincible five-year-old started his career in New Zealand before having two runs for two seconds for Danny Williams at Goulburn.
But he was quickly sent up north by the owners for his own wellbeing and comes into today’s Class 1 Handicap (1215m) at Grafton off a 22-week spell.
“He bled at his last start and the owner sent him up here thinking the warmer climate might suit him better,” Schmidt said.
“It thinks he’s ready to go. If he was up earlier I would have liked to have a crack at the Country Championships this year with him but we’ll find a Highway for him.”
Schmidt will apply earmuffs before the race and likely get the pony to lead his horse to the barriers. Punters should take note of how Sco Mo Eagle handles the pre-race lead-up.
“He’s a nice horse by a super sire and is a big, strong fella,” Schmidt said. “He’s a beautiful looking animal but his manner will play a big part in how he’ll race.
“He’s a very highly strung horse and isn’t the easiest to train. He’s a big animal and he knows his strength. He is easy to ride though, and he trialled really well. He was only in second gear. It was close to the run so we didn’t want to knock him around.”
No Doubt A Lady is Schmidt’s other main chance on the card, a Maiden Handicap (1115m).
“She’s got a fair bit of ability but seems to find trouble wherever she goes. She’s only a light horse,” he said. “She probably should have won her last start after running up a few backsides. We’ll probably just try and go around them rather than be pretty.
“She and Sco Mo Eagle are my best chances, while the others are resuming. Lunar Lustre always runs a nice race when fresh.”
MATT JONES’S INSIDE MAIL
RACE 1 (1.15pm)
This should be the day for Lets Torque A Deel. His one win came at 1000m but he’s a stayer and should enjoy the 2230m. Pressing Matters is bred to run this right out and finished second last start at the track when he made a long run. South Bend is by former Melbourne Cup winner Americain and will be on the speed and trying to hold on. He just hasn’t quite had the stamina to figure of late. Steppin’ Out will also be on the speed but will be vulnerable late.
BET: LETS TORQUE A DEEL to win.
RACE 2 (1.50pm)
If the best version of Alternative Facts turns up she will be the one to beat. She has been running on well all preparation without winning and has slightly disappointed her trainer because he had her pencilled in as a Country Championships horse. She needs to win here. Mummentum is what may ruin those plans. She was great first-up and should end up in a better spot to strike in the straight. Yarrinup Flyer is a big improver second-up.
BET: ALTERNATIVE FACTS to win.
RACE 3 (2.25pm)
Mini Me has placed at her past four runs but they have all been at Sky 2 meetings and she’s been more than 2½ lengths off the winner at her past three runs. No Doubt A Lady has drawn awkwardly but brings better form into the race and with luck should figure in the finish. It was hard to take a lot out of debutant Holiday In Dubai’s quiet trial but this is a weak field for a first start and has good barrier draw.
BET: NO DOUBT A LADY to win.
RACE 4 (3.05pm)
Desert Marshal has been on top of his game for a while but this is the first time in many starts when he’s drawn wide. Plonka is much better suited to 1200m and he’s having his final run before a Country Championships tilt. He got home very well first-up in the same grade last start over 1000m and looks in fine form. Evopex goes well fresh and at the track so he can return to best form. Any rain would help. Triage is the each-way hope.
BET: PLONKA to win.
RACE 5 (3.40pm)
Atyaaf gets out to a trip that should suit. He’s third-up and nice and fit to run it out strongly against an average field. Flying Pretty will also be near her best at this distance and comes off a pretty good run over 1700m. Will also get the cushy run in transit. One of Real Gent’s two wins was at a mile and after four runs over 1200 to 1400m he’s ready to be a winning chance at his new home track. Tiomo has been running well without winning.
BET: ATYAAF to win.
RACE 6 (4.15pm)
Vampirina Diamond put in a huge run when second last start over 1700m because she was jumping up from a 1300m race. It was a big effort for a filly. Has the fitness to win and her rivals aren’t in form. Italian Tune has only had two starts so there has to be some upside being by Pierro. Also has barrier one. On breeding, Arizona Belle will run this out and at her best she’s a place hope.
BET: VAMPIRINA DIAMOND to win.
RACE 7 (4.50pm)
Sco Mo Eagle has been sent up to Dwayne Schmidt after two eye-catching runs for Danny Williams last winter. The I Am Invincible five-year-old looked the part in a lead-up trial. Montana Mist likes to lead and won a $40,000 maiden at Ballina last start. May be vulnerable late. Bondi Boy, formerly trained in Sydney, will win one around here soon for new trainer Donna Grisedale. Vivendo Il Sogno is a big chance if he starts, while The Memory Man drops in grade.
BET: Quinella 1, 2.
RACE 8 (5.30pm)
Things panned out perfectly for Gold Bracelet on debut a fortnight ago but she was good enough to take advantage of that and put a gap in them. It could happen again here from barrier two. Zellymay ran third and seventh in her two trials and that’s basically what she did before winning on debut last start. Queenofthecastle might swoop past them both. She’s in form and looking for 1215m. Gypsy Queen will be coming hard late.
BET: Exacta 4, 5.
Originally published as Grafton races, tips, best bets and analysis