Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday
Lloyd Williams could have his first Melbourne Cup runner for 2022 after Point Nepean runs in Saturday’s Listed Andrew Ramsden at Flemington.
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Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters has an early look at Saturday’s Andrew Ramsden meeting at Flemington.
BEST BET
POINT NEPEAN (Race 7, No.10)
Developing stayer that has won his last two in good fashion and beat the Warrnambool Cup winner last time out. Expecting him to be hard to beat again.
VALUE BET
JUSTACANTA (Race 8, No.1)
Ran on well when not far away at Sandown but runs his best races at Flemington. He’s over the odds here.
EARLY QUADDIE
3, 5, 6, 7/1, 2, 3, 4, 5/1, 2, 4, 6, 10/8, 13, 14, 15, 20
$100 flexi for 20 per cent
BIG6
1, 2, 4, 6, 10/8, 13, 14, 15, 20/5, 6, 9/10, 11/1, 2, 3, 17/1, 2, 11
$100 flexi for 5.55 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 5, 6, 9
Race 7: 10, 11
Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 17
Race 9: 1, 2, 11
$100 flexi for 138.88 per cent
RACE 1 (11:55PM): NEXT GENERATION SPRINTERS HEAT 1 (1100m)
Tricky race to start with forecast showers not helping when assessing the track condition. Going a little wider with EL SOLEADO (7) each-way in the first race. Liked his last couple of jumpouts and he’s a strong type that should be in this for a long way. High-priced yearling DOULL (6) also jumped out well and should be competitive. ROYAL SIGNAL (10) was a solid debut winner and could show up again. GOLD BUCKET (3) showed speed when a comfortable winner at Cranbourne second-up and could go on.
SUGGESTED BET: El Soleado each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Doull $4.80 – $3.40.
RACE 2 (12:30PM): FLEMINGTON FILLIES SPRINT (1100m)
I Am Me’s scratching opens up the race. NO WAY EVER (5) won at Sandown first-up and wasn’t disgraced at Caulfield last time out. She’ll be fitter again for that and will run well with only 53kg. COMMANDS THE FIELD (3) did her best work late at Sandown and won’t be far away here. MISS MELBOURNE (7) was a strong first-up winner at Geelong and could go on with it. ARRANMORE (6) is a possible improver on firmer ground on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BET: No Way Ever to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Nothing of note.
RACE 3 (1:05PM): MAHOGANY CHALLENGE SERIES HEAT 2 (1700m)
Another even race for three-year-olds but CARLISLE (2) has a great on-pace racing style and showed plenty of fight to score at Sandown. He’s drawn barrier one and could control this race. SONORA (5) ran on well last start and shouldn’t be far away again. BRITISH COLUMBIA (3) won well at Pakenham and the form out of the race stood up during the week. GENERAL FIREPOWER (4) ran on well from the back at Sandown and should go well.
SUGGESTED BET: Carlisle to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sonora $7 – $6.
RACE 4 (1:40PM): LEILANI SERIES HEAT 1 (1400m)
The is possibly the hardest race of the day but happy to have a small bet on BUTTER CHICKEN (2) first-up. Her last two jumpouts have been good and she’s down a long way in class from contesting Group races in the spring. Her stablemate VESPERTINE (1) is consistent and should be thereabouts up to 1400m. ADELE AMOUR (10) drops from 1600m to 1400m but is unbeaten at this trip. WITCHFULTHINKING (6) will roll forward and could be tough to run down.
SUGGESTED BET: Butter Chicken to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Adele Amour $5 – $4.20.
RACE 5 (2:15PM) LEXYS MELBOURNE CUP TOUR HANDICAP (1600m)
Hoping VITRUVIUS (20) gets a run as he’s ready to win after two excellent efforts this time in, including a narrow second to the smart Sir Davy at Sandown last time. BARRETTA (15) might have choked down at Sale second-up but he’s better than that and is worth another chance. HIGHLAND JAKK (13) finished hard to score first-up and could measure up to this. HYPE (14) is an unknown quantity but he has solid Irish form.
SUGGESTED BET: Vitruvius to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Beltoro $4.20 – $3.60.
RACE 6 (2:50PM): SILVER BOWL SERIES HEAT 1 (1400m)
ICE PICK NICK (5) was outsprinted by the speedy Midwest at Caulfield but stepping to 1400m could bring significant improvement from the three-year-old. ARRAN BAY (9) was unlucky not to have won at Sandown first-up and will only be improved for that. STAR OF CHAOS (6) chased home the smart Illation in Adelaide last time and will be suited back at this level. CARDINAL GEM (13) was outsprinted over 1200m last time out and wasn’t disgraced in stakes class at his last 1400m run.
SUGGESTED BET: Ice Pick Nick to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Arran Bay $4.20 – $3.70.
RACE 7 (3:30PM): LEXUS ANDREW RAMSDEN (2800M)
POINT NEPEAN (10) has worked up to this trip with two strong wins over 2400m, including last time out when he defeated the subsequent Warrnambool Cup winner Witchachar Star. He’ll be hard to beat. WARNING (1) was well held in the Warrnambool Cup but will be fitter and should find this easier. SPLENDIFEROUS (11) was an outstanding winner in Adelaide last time out and will go well again. LUNCIES (2) will find this much easier than the Sydney Cup and can improve sharply.
SUGGESTED BET: Point Nepean to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Splendiferous $4.80 – $3.50.
RACE 8 (4:10PM): VRC-CRV WINTER CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES HEAT 1 (1400m)
JUSTACANTA (1) looks over the odds in early betting after his excellent fourth at Sandown last time out and his Flemington record is terrific. He’s a great each-way chance. MORVADA (3) fought on well to score at Listed level in Adelaide last time and is well suited here. TRIPLE MISSILE (17) did a good job when fourth in the Wangoom Handicap first-up and will be fitter for that. BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (2) is a Group 1 winner capable of running a big race fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Justacanta each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Morvada $6.50 – $6
RACE 9 (4:45PM): SANTA ANA LANE SPRINT SERIES HEAT 2 (1000m)
Interesting straight race to finish but putting WHIPCRACKER WAY (11) on top after he was a touch unlucky when second to Starry Legend at Sandown second-up and he’ll only be fitter. HOW WOMANTIC (2) has a good first-up record and should be one of the hardest to beat. Three-year-old filly DOSH (1) will give her rivals weight but she has enough talent to threaten first-up. FINE DANE (5) is usually around the mark and is worth putting into multiples.
SUGGESTED BET: Whipcracker Way each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Dosh $4.40 – $4
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Flemington, Scone and Eagle Farm.
BEST BET: I AM ME (Scone – Saturday, R6 No.13)
VALUE BET: KEMENTARI (Eagle Farm, R8, No.1)
LAY OF THE WEEK: SPLENDIFEROUS (Flemington, R7 No.11)
ANDREW RAMSDEN (2800m)
Flemington, R7, 3.30pm
Competitors are racing for a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup with the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott trained Splendiferous a firming favourite from $4.80 into $3.40 since the barrier draw.
Splendiferous comes into this after successive victories including the Port Adelaide Cup last start but, for mine, she is now rock-bottom odds.
Last month Point Nepean fended off Through Irish Eyes at Caulfield, but I anticipate the Maher and Eustice-trained Through Irish Eyes will reverse the result here.
Through Irish Eyes ran fifth in the Ramsden last year won by Realm Of Flowers and can race his way into Melbourne Cup contention with a win.
At around the $5.50 mark I am happy to be with him each-way.
There has been early support for Luncies, backed from $8 into $6.
Luncies was well held last start in the Sydney Cup but his previous form was solid and he us worth including in the multiples.
THE TIP: THROUGH IRISH EYES each-way.
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2500M)
Morphettville, R8, 3.52pm
Alegron is a worthy favourite on the back of a strong win last start in the VRC St Leger at Flemington.
Damien Oliver reminded everybody why he is one of the greatest jockeys on the planet by weaving a clear passage aboard Alegron who then showed his class with a 2¼-length victory.
That victory followed a third placing in the ATC Derby behind Hitotsu and if he can hold his form he is again the one to beat.
John Allen will ride undefeated galloper Detonator Jack, who is on the second line of betting at $4.80.
Allen has an amazing record in the race having won four of the last six including the past two aboard Explosive Jack and Russian Camelot.
Detonator Jack was a dominant last-start winner at Sandown and must be respected but my one concern is the wide draw.
The runner at long odds who is worth including in the trifecta and first four is Commander Harry, who placed behind Detonator Jack at Sandown last start and from a nice draw can run a strong 2500m.
Commander Harry has trimmed up from $26 into $19.
THE TIP: ALEGRON win.
TAB DOOMBEN 10,000 (1200m)
Eagle Farm, R8, 4pm.
The Snowden-trained Mazu has been a revelation winning five straight starts.
He heads the market at $2.70 and from a good draw looks the one to beat.
The rejuvenated Kementari is also worth saving on, or even a place bet.
Once a nightmare for punters, Kementari has won two of his past three starts including Group 3 Hall Mark Stakes.
Kementari was well backed in pre-post betting from $26 into $8 and is now $9.
THE TIP: MAZU win, KEMENTARI each-way.
3YO PLATE (1400m)
Eagle Farm, R4, 1.33pm
The money has come for the Rob Heathcote-trained Startantes, backed from $4.20 into $3.60.
On what could be a big day at Eagle Farm for the James Cummings stable, which currently has seven runners engaged, I anticipate one of the better winning chances is Ingratiating.
He steps up to 1400m for the first time in his career and has a good second-up record with two wins and a second from four attempts.
With Nash Rawiller in the saddle I’m happy to be with him each-way at $10.
Arentee has returned from a spell with two dominant wins and despite the step up in grade must be respected.
At $9.50 I’m happy to also have a saver on him
Minsk Moment was strong late to win last start, the only negative is the wide draw but warrants respect.
THE TIP: INGRATIATING each-way.
Originally published as Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday
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