Rugby World Cup: Wallabies coach Michael Cheika facing tough choice over his openside flankers

WALLABIES coach Michael Cheika has the welcome headache of deciding which of his outstanding No. 7s will start at the World Cup.

Michael Hooper of NSW during the Super Rugby match between the Queensland Reds and the NSW Waratahs. Pic Darren England.

It was once unthinkable that George Smith could be replaced.

It became unthinkable that David Pocock could be replaced.

Now it seems unthinkable that Michael Hooper can be replaced.

​And if you want to really talk unthinkables, don’t think about this: Smith - Australia’s greatest ever openside flanker - is available again but now appears surplus to requirements.

​Such is the brain freeze of a conundrum surrounding the occupant of the Wallabies no.7 jersey at the Rugby World Cup later this year.

Hooper and Pocock will go head-to-head in Canberra on Friday night and though most personal duels on a field get over-hyped, this will be a stage worthy of a few jazz hands.

As well as defending a Super Rugby title, Michael Cheika has a World Cup squad to finalise in coming months and the open side flanker area would - at once - be the easiest and hardest column on his Excel spreadsheet.

David Pocock is in impressive form for the Brumbies after two years out through injury.

Easiest because he has no shortage of candidates. Hooper is the incumbent Wallabies captain, Pocock has returned to superb form from two seasons out with injury, Liam Gill is all class, Matt Hodgson is a competitor, Sean McMahon is a straight beast and Smith is now eligible from his French base in Lyon.

Hardest because Cheika said on Friday he wouldn’t take three no.7s to the World Cup ... so six has to go into two.

At the risk of blasphemy - no Smith? - Pocock and Hooper are the two, and McMahon and Gill will have to sell their back row versatility.

But the even harder part for Cheika, possibly the hardest selection decision he’ll have ever faced, will be choosing between Hooper and Pocock to start.

They won’t both run on. Two sevens equals one less line out option, and unlike Smith, neither Hooper or Pocock have any history in another position.

At best they’ll play together when one comes off the bench.

But who starts? It’s a decision no-one has yet had to make, given Hooper got his chance as Pocock’s injury replacement in 2012. In two seasons since, the tyro has been on the dais for best player in every one of his Tests.

Cheika said at the weekend he’d never coached a player as consistent as Hooper, and with his exceptional attacking skills, drive and under-rated defence (he’s third in the tackle count for all Super Rugby), logic says Hooper keeps the no.7.

But Cheika has to pick a team to win a World Cup, and that’s where Pocock’s stocks surge.

Stopping tries is just as crucial as scoring them and Cheika will have to decide how importance he places on both to succeed in tournament rugby.

Pocock is the best on-baller in Australian rugby and is an expert in the art of strategic ball theft, or disruption. That sort of skill is invaluable in a World Cup, and feared by rivals.

Everyone remembers the 2011 quarter-final in Wellington but Pocock’s ability to help defuse rival pressure in the Wallaby redzone was consistent when he was playing, and is arguably missed.

It’s very roughly hewn data but during Pocock’s days (2008 - 2012), the Wallabies conceded 19.8 points a game. In the Hooper years since, the Wallabies have conceded 24.5 points a game.

What else do the stats say? Pocock’s winning percentage from 46 Tests in gold is 61%, and Hooper’s is 52% from 42 games.

Hooper has yet to beat the All Blacks in six Tests, Pocock did it twice from nine and the Brumby has the edge against South Africa as well.

World Cup pool rivals? Both are undefeated against Wales, and Pocock bats at 50% against England compared to Hooper’s 33%.

But as any skint punter will tell you, stats can’t predict the future. Form does a much better job, and when form comes in a high-pressure game, it’s as close as you’ll get to Biff’s sporting almanac.

So much is on the line for the Waratahs and the Brumbies in Canberra on Friday, and perhaps when the dust settles, Cheika will have a better idea on who will be his no.7.

Or perhaps not. When you’re paid to think about unthinkables, perhaps his head will just hurt even more.

Originally published as Rugby World Cup: Wallabies coach Michael Cheika facing tough choice over his openside flankers