Ladbrokes Late Mail: Football gods come back to haunt Richmond as it arrives at Adelaide Oval to take on Port Adelaide as underdog
Injuries are huring Richmond, with all the punting money landing with Port. See the best bets for AFL, NBA, EPL, A-League and The Championships in this week’s Ladbrokes Late Mail. PLUS watch the video.
Opinion
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Two seasons without a major injury was a gift to the Tigers from the football gods but as the footy lord giveth, the footy lord can taketh away.
It is only Round 4 and Richmond has none of its leadership group able to play this weekend.
It has left it a rank outsider against the Power.
Port Adelaide had some impressive patches last week — despite kicking themselves out of the game — and look like a certainty here. It has been the year of the underdog but Richmond will struggle to cover the loss of its top liners.
As Port dropped its first match of the season last week Essendon had its first win.
The question is this: how much of their groove did the Bombers get back?
If Brisbane is as good as we think, the Lions should be worth an investment in a flip-of-the-coin game.
The Q clash is only weeks away and after years as a battle of the cellar dwellers both the Lions and Suns could be in the eight when it rolls around at the end of April.
A one-point loss in round one followed by back-to-back wins as a big outsider has the Gold Coast no longer favourite in Ladbrokes’ most losses market.
That title has been taken over by Carlton, which faces the Suns this Sunday in a game in which Gold Coast will start a firm favourite.
Watch the most losses market after the result.
If the Blues lose they will shorten significantly for the second week in a row.
In a season where things were supposed to turn around, the market suggests Carlton could be headed for another wooden spoon.
NBA
The NBA playoffs are a week away and this year things will be different.
LeBron James won’t be playing in the post season for the first time since 2005.
Not only was that before you could stream the NBA on a smartphone, it was before smartphones were invented.
And for those many, many punters who bet on the LA Lakers rising on the back of one of the best ever smartphone streaming will not be necessary.
Aside from the Golden State Warriors the Lakers were the best backed team with Ladbrokes to win this season’s title.
The bookies were so confident there would be no such fairytale they had no issues with a Lakers title meaning a wipe-out on the trading floor.
The Warriors had slightly more money on them but the discrepancy in price made the Lakers a significantly worse result.
Over in the Eastern Conference the Bucks were the subject of a significant plunge.
Ladbrokes will be cheering for Milwaukee to misfire in the playoffs; so too Toronto.
One punter will be doing the opposite.
He’s placed two bets in the past couple of months; one of $7000 at $4.75 and another of $3000 at $3 on Milwaukee being the conference representative in this year’s NBA Finals.
EPL
There is only a month left in the English Premier League season and the title race between
Manchester City and Liverpool remains ultra competitive.
Manchester City remains the favourite with Ladbrokes at odds of $1.53 and is not expected to have any issues taking three points from their match against Crystal Palace this weekend.
But Crystal Palace did chalk up a shock win against Manchester City earlier this season and there is $10 available with Ladbrokes for Palace to pull that off again.
Liverpool faces a much stiffer challenge against Chelsea and its title odds of $2.50 will lengthen significantly if it is unable to get the job done on Monday morning.
The Reds have not beaten Chelsea in the English Premier League since 2016 and the $1.62 available does look on the skinny side.
Chelsea is $5.20 to record an upset win and give Manchester City the clear upper hand.
A-LEAGUE
It will be a finals preview at AAMI Stadium on Saturday when Melbourne City host Adelaide United in what shapes as an intriguing betting encounter.
City is the favourite with Ladbrokes at $2.25 and has proven to be a very reliable betting team this season.
It has won seven of eight games as home favourites for a clear profit and has not lost to Adelaide in their past six meetings.
That said, you can’t rule out Adelaide.
The Reds made it two wins on the trot with a classy performance against Wellington Phoenix and have won six of their past 13 games on the road.
The winner of this game could potentially finish the weekend in fourth on the ladder and will be in the box seat for a home final.
NRL
There is no coach in the NRL under more pressure than Gareth Brennan.
The Gold Coast Titans were expected to be big improvers in 2019 but have not looked like winning a game this season.
They are staring down the barrel of the first 0-5 start in their history.
The Penrith Panthers didn’t let punters down against the Wests Tigers last weekend and they’ve been well backed to keep their winning form against the Titans at the price of $1.60.
It wasn’t easy, but Melbourne Storm maintained its unbeaten start to the season with a win against the Canterbury Bulldogs last Sunday and has been heavily backed to take its record to 5-0.
The North Queensland Cowboys have been absolutely friendless for the third week in a row and just about all of the early money has been for the Storm.
The money looks spot on.
The Storm has won its past eight games against the Cowboys and Paul Green’s team has won only one of its past seven games as home underdogs.
South Sydney is the only side shorter than the Storm with Ladbrokes this weekend and recent history suggests the Bunnies will be far too strong for the New Zealand Warriors.
The Rabbitohs have won seven of their past eight games against the Warriors and New Zealand has lost their past four games on the road.
BEST BETS
HORSE RACING
Avantage to win the Arrowfield 3YO Sprint @ $4.60
Avantage has recorded seven wins from eight race starts and is one of the most exciting three-year- olds in the country. She looked beaten in the Birthday Card Stakes but just kept on finding. She should only benefit from that effort. Barrier five is ideal and she is a proven winner.
NRL
Canterbury to cover the line (+6.5 Points) against St George Illawarra @
$1.90
The Bulldogs were unlucky not to come away with the two points from their match against the Storm and could give the Dragons a scare this weekend. The Dragons have covered the line in only three of their past nine games at home while the Bulldogs are 7-4 against the line as away underdogs over the past 12 months.
AFL
Hawthorn to cover the line (-15.5 Points) against St Kilda @ $1.90
Hawthorn has won eight of its past nine games against St Kilda and has been a winning betting play against the line as favourites over the past 12 months. The Saints have won only two of their past 18 games as underdogs and their record against the line is not much better.
SUPER RUGBY
Jaguars to beat the Sharks @ $3.20
The Jaguars returned to winning form against the Bulls last weekend and have played better rugby than their record suggests this seasons. They have won five of their past 10 games as away underdogs for a big profit and the $3.20 on offer is well over the odds.
Which female athlete should be cast in bronze at Oval?
As she continues her calls for a statue of a female sportsperson to be built at Adelaide Oval, Natalie von Bertouch gives her suggestions for whose should be sculpted first. CAST YOUR VOTE IN OUR POLL
Why it’s time Adelaide Oval had a statue of a female athlete
It’s time for a statue of a female athlete to be built around our great Adelaide Oval. But who should it be, Natalie von Bertouch asks SA’s sports lovers.