The root of the NRL’s unpredictable 2018 and the rising superpowers

THE 2018 NRL season is one of the most unpredictable in living memory, and the root of the bold new world can be found in the perils of the year before writes PAUL KENT.

WOLLONGONG, AUSTRALIA — APRIL 01: Kalyn Ponga of the Knights makes a line break during the round four NRL match between the St George Illawarra Dragons and the Newcastle Knights at WIN Stadium on April 1, 2018 in Wollongong, Australia. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)

IN alarming news, nothing makes sense anymore.

The Warriors and Dragons lead the competition and the early premiership smokeys, Parramatta, are running last.

Of the six teams that share the past four grand finals — Melbourne (seventh), North Queensland (14th), Cronulla (11th), Brisbane (12th), Canterbury (15th) and South Sydney (10th) — not one are in the top eight.

The ladder makes more sense if you turn it upside down.

This time last year a long groan was going around the game about all the player movement.

The big four at Wests Tigers soon became the big three, then the two big two, and finally the little one. Matt Scott was being wooed by the Knights. Kalyn Ponga was shopping himself around, Josh Dugan wanted to play fullback and not centre and Cooper Cronk was carefully plotting his exit.

Newcastle have proven they did not overpay for Kalyn Ponga.

The Broncos lost halfback Ben Hunt because they were unwilling to pay what St George Illawarra deemed his market value, for a genuine half, then spent almost the same to lure Jack Bird to play in the halves only to discover he is a centre or lock but not a five-eighth.

None of it made sense back then and even less of it makes sense right now.

But isn’t it wonderful.

For all the anguish the player movement caused last year, the hand-wringing over this supposed idea of loyalty (a myth in professional sport), the wailing over the value of a contract (a contract is there only to protect the interests of both parties and both can willingly agree to dissolve it), the extraordinary activity last year has provided one hell of a competition.

It was unprecedented and, in the end, accidental.

Because the previous broadcast deal was written to end last season many of the smart players around the game timed their contracts to end so they could renegotiate their new deals under the new salary cap.

That’s why there was so much player movement last season. It won’t happen again until 2022.

Last Saturday, Newcastle beat Brisbane.

Ben Hunt is another player who’s settled in well at his new home.

Seven of the starting 13 were not with the Knights this time last year. Two more, Connor Watson and Tautau Moga, were injured.

Of those nine, eight were from clubs that finished top four last year. The ninth is Jacob Lillyman, has played 14 times for Queensland.

The Knights are three from five. They have wins over Manly, Canberra and Brisbane and sit seventh, two spots ahead of Melbourne.

Yet the Knights are the quiet secret for why the loud pain we endured last season is good.

The fluidity of the market enabled them to completely regenerate their roster.

For a while last season the Knights looked like the dunces in the game.

Coach Nathan Brown sat on a fat nest egg of salary cap money but couldn’t find a nibble.

Scott knocked him back and so did Bird, James Graham, Cooper Cronk and several others. Ponga took the deal but most baulked when its value was leaked, wondering whether the Knights had paid overs.

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It might become the smartest signing in club history.

Fortune favoured the Knights, though.

As they failed to make a kill in the player market it looked like the Knights might be left sitting on their money.

But movement at other clubs forced some clubs to a position where they needed to offload talent.

The obvious example was the Mitchell Pearce pick up after the Sydney Roosters signed Cronk.

Once Cronk signed with the Roosters, Pearce was looking for a club.

With Manly under a salary cap investigation Pearce’s options were significantly reduced and a quiet word of the Manly troubles might have swayed him Newcastle’s way.

The Knights are not the only team to benefit from last year’s high turnover.

And the teams that came in late seem to have benefited most.

Blake Green has transformed the Warriors.

The Tigers also capitalised on the volatile market.

They suffered the loss of the three-quarters of the big four, Mitch Moses, James Tedesco and Aaron Woods.

At the same time, the Tigers struggled to land a solid signing, eventually throwing good money at Josh Reynolds to show there was not a smell around the joint.

After that Ben Matulino, Russell Packer, Robbie Rochow, Mahe Fonua and Corey Thompson rolled into town and now, after just five rounds, the Tigers have beaten Melbourne twice, the Roosters and Eels to sit fourth.

The Dragons recruited Hunt and Graham, plugging gaps, and the Warriors recruited a little old Melbourne steel in the likes of former Storm players Adam Blair, Tohu Harris and Blake Green.

They played slow poker and won.

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Originally published as The root of the NRL’s unpredictable 2018 and the rising superpowers