Anthony Griffin: Roosters have slight edge over Storm
Former NRL coach ANTHONY GRIFFIN lifts the lid on the best game plans for the Roosters v Storm preliminary final blockbuster.
Roosters
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ROOSTERS
Strengths
Fresh and in form, the Roosters have had the luxury of a week off. They thrashed the Rabbitohs 30-6 in a first-half blitz in week one. They scored the most tries in the regular season (4.5 per game) and were second only to the Storm in defence, averaging 15 points a game.
The defending premiers know what this time of year is all about. Coach Trent Robinson has timed their run beautifully. They have the same playmaking group, led by Cooper Cronk, that won the title last year, while Luke Keary and James Tedesco have a better combination.
Plenty of finals experience and representative players, highlighted by the fact Angus Crichton is coming off the bench and Ryan Hall can’t make the 17. The Roosters love playing at the SCG — they have won their last nine games there at an average scoreline of 37-8.
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Weaknesses
The loss of Jared Waerea-Hargraves to suspension is huge. With him, over the past two years, they win 77 per cent of games, without him it’s 44 per cent. Preliminary finals before 2018 have also been a problem. They lost three in a row before last year.
Even though they scored the most tries they finished the season with the worst completion rate in the NRL – 72.9 per cent. This leads to an issue that the Storm exposed in their two meetings (rounds six and 15). The Roosters did not score a second-half try against Melbourne.
They led 20-0 in round six and won in golden point. In round 15 the Storm ground out a 14-12 win after scores were locked 12-12 at halftime. The Roosters have trouble playing out a strong 80 minutes. In their two losses to South Sydney this season they led at halftime however in their other five defeats they were either level or behind at the break.
Mindset
This game was always going to happen. We need to beat the best to win the competition. It has worked in our favour — we are at home and well prepared after the week off. We know how to beat them in September and we have improved and are in better shape this year.
Despite the loss of JWH, we have the depth to cover him. We still haven’t put our best 80 minutes together. This Saturday there are no second chances and the Storm are finals specialists who will fight to the death. If we want to be the first club to go back-to-back in 26 years everything must go on the line now. Leave nothing to chance in our preparation and nothing in the tank on Saturday night.
If I were the Roosters
I would challenge my forwards to get over the top of the Storm pack. Without JWH everyone has the opportunity to give more to the team. Go after them physically and control their play-the-ball speed.
Smith will have plenty of width on his passes. Be there for Munster and Hughes’ footwork. Effort on effort – once you’ve made a tackle your job has just started – get to marker and cover Smith and push hard under the ball. Across the park get our line speed up and go and get their halves at every opportunity.
One pass at a time, pick off their shape and always start with Smith – don’t ever leave him unchecked. Our kick defence needs to be perfect as their wingers are quick, they scored three tries last week off the boot. Kick to our right side and keep Papenhuyzen and Addo-Carr in that corner. If we can isolate Papenhuyzen we can physically dominate him and give Tedesco a chance to jump over him.
They have never been able to handle our left edge attack and their right edge has been a problem. Send plenty of sets that way and kick in behind or over Vunuvalu if he gets up too early. Daniel Tupou must hold the sideline for a pass or kick. Inside balls for Tedesco are always an option and Joseph Manu is always dangerous given early ball or short side opportunities. Finally, be prepared to get in a scrap for 80 minutes (or longer). They are not going to go away, we have to finish them or they will finish us.
STORM
Strengths
Melbourne are shooting for their fourth grand final in a row. Coach Craig Bellamy and Cameron Smith have been doing this since 2006. Melbourne were runaway minor premiers and are ranked No.1 in the NRL in both attack and defence. They only conceded 12.5 points a game in the regular season and backed that up in two finals, averaging only six points after shutting the Eels out last week.
They play with a lot of control — 79 per cent completion rate (second in the NRL) — and once they have built pressure have weapons in Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr and Ryan Papenhuyzen. The Storm were first in line breaks at 5.6 per game. After a disappointing effort in week one against Canberra they were back to their ruthless best last week. They destroyed Parramatta in the first 20 minutes and lead 22-0 at halftime.
Weaknesses
Their starting side has been unsettled over the last five weeks. In round 23, Brodie Croft was replaced by Jahrome Hughes at halfback and Papenhuyzen started at fullback. Last week Bellamy made a massive call in dropping premiership winning centre Will Chambers in favour of Curtis Scott.
It is all about their right edge defence which has been a constant problem. Last week they weren’t tested against an Eels team who completed only 15 sets at 50 per cent. This week they up against a Roosters left edge that has troubled them since ripping them apart in last year’s grand final.
The Storm have never played at the SCG and it is a ground with its own feel. The inexperience of their playmakers is a question mark as Hughes and Papenhuyzen are a very new combination. They are both in their first full season of NRL and are five weeks into a partnership with Smith and Munster.
Mindset
At some point we had to beat the Roosters to win the competition so this week it is. We have been in this position four years in a row and we know how to win the big games. Our season has been brilliant on both sides of the ball and we deserved the minor premiership. The loss to the Raiders was a blessing in disguise – it gave us an extra week to get our game to where it needs to be for a preliminary final. After leading the competition all year, we aren’t finished yet. We owe these guys one and nothing would be sweeter then ending their season. The SCG is just another ground. The last time we played them we beat them at the Adelaide Oval, so bring it on.
If I were the Storm
We need our best defence of the season in the first half. The Roosters exploded out of the blocks in last year’s grand final and in round six this year. In round 15 in Adelaide we scored first and ground out a 14-12 win. It all begins in the middle. Go after Lui and Taukeiaho up front and target Friend if he starts.
They have lost their enforcer Waerea-Hargreaves, and Taukeiaho, Cordner and Friend haven’t played much football in the last eight weeks. Roll down the middle third of the field off Smith and get Munster, Hughes and Papenhuyzen to run looking for offloads or short passes.
Gradually build our width and make the Roosters’ forwards continually tackle, reset and cover inside balls and changes of direction from our playmakers. Kick left through Munster and Smith and have a watch on early shifts by Keary to Mitchell on our right.
Defensively, our right edge has to be perfect. Get an extra man on that side whenever possible to take care of Keary, Cordner and Mitchell. Cronk and Aubusson are less of a threat and Olam and Vunivalu will get their job done on Manu. Finally, on last play we need pressure on their halves and their big jumpers in Tupou and Tedesco. We troubled them with our running game on fifth play in Adelaide so be in shape from our red line because they can get passive and give you a chance.
HOW THEY PLAY
Two extremely well drilled defensive units. Don’t expect a lot of points. This is shaping as a heavyweight bout that will go the distance. The last time they met it was a low scoring and intense contest. Melbourne never show up unprepared. The Roosters will be fresh and hungry.
Watch for their line speed in defence – they can take it to another level in big finals. The Storm will be patient and build pressure with Smith conducting the show. I think they will take the Roosters on through the middle more than they have in the past – hit a lot of leads from their big forwards and use the speed and footwork of their Nos.7, 6 and 1.
The Roosters will attack the Storm’s right edge. They have cracked them for six tries on that side in their last three meetings. Cordner and Mitchell are class, big game players – look for them to get plenty of ball.
In finals, the halves get you home and this is where the Roosters have an advantage. Cronk and Keary won a competition together last year. Their combination has improved – Keary has been outstanding and Cronk will be craving one last dance before he finishes. I think these two guys will steer the Roosters to a narrow win.
PREDICTION: ROOSTERS BY 4
Originally published as Anthony Griffin: Roosters have slight edge over Storm