Darren Lockyer analyses NRL finals contenders and pretenders
With the run to the NRL finals heating up, Darren Lockyer gives his blunt thoughts on Brisbane’s title aspirations and who he thinks will battle out the decider in October.
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Now is the time for premiership aspirants to get their acts together.
Titles aren’t won in August, but they can certainly be lost over the next month as we brace for sudden-death finals football.
From what I have seen of Melbourne this season, Craig Bellamy’s juggernaut is going to take some stopping.
I’m constantly amazed by the Storm’s cultural benchmarks. Everyone knows their role and when teams cultivate such a good understanding of how they are playing, they can even start experimenting by resting players in the latter rounds of the season.
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The Storm are just so in control of their game at the moment and losing the grand final last year to the Roosters has only amplified their hunger.
If they qualify again this year for the grand final, it will be their fourth consecutive decider, which is just a remarkable sign of their consistency and culture as a club.
It’s a massive credit for the Storm to still have the desire to set the standards they have.
The Roosters are still capable of winning back-to-back titles. History shows it hasn’t been done over the past 20 years since the launch of the NRL era in 1998.
The salary cap has really equalised talent and it’s so hard mentally for teams to find an extra edge after they have won the premiership. They have shown glimpses of what they are capable of and I have a suspicion they will peak at the perfect time.
Luke Keary had a concussion-enforced break during the Origin period. Jake Friend has suffered two injuries, and Latrell Mitchell’s self-belief took a hit when he was axed from the NSW Origin team.
But their tribulations suggest the Chooks have another gear for the finals. Cooper Cronk, eyeing a premiership farewell, will piece the puzzle together.
The Raiders are the dark horse of the competition.
They have a nicely balanced team and when you have a hooker like Josh Hodgson, who is England’s version of Cameron Smith, the Raiders possess a real weapon around the rucks.
The Raiders have put a lot of mental energy into fixing their defence this year and that’s eased the strain on their attack, allowing them to win some tight games.
With Melbourne and the Roosters, the Green Machine are in my top three premiership picks.
The jury is out on the Rabbitohs. They started the season on fire, but then they went quiet during the Origin period, a by-product of Sam Burgess’ injury and Cody Walker’s dip in form after he was dropped from the NSW Origin team.
I saw some good signs in their loss to the Storm last week. They pushed Melbourne right until the end.
The key is keeping Adam Reynolds fit and it’s important Walker gets their left-edge attack firing again. A big scalp like the Roosters in round 25 could be their catalyst to make a title surge.
Manly have had a fine season under Des Hasler but I suspect they need more time to give the title a shake.
Individually, they have some of the best weapons in the game. Tom Trbojevic does special things and Daly Cherry-Evans is superb under pressure. They have exceeded expectations this year and with Hasler’s big-game experience and ability to manage pressure, the Sea Eagles can go deep into the finals.
Parramatta have done well to rebuild their season and generate some momentum, but they need to go to another level if they are going to beat the top teams in sudden-death football and I don’t think they are capable of that.
Of the bottom half of the eight, Penrith are the team that can go on a run.
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James Maloney loves the pressure games, Nathan Cleary is developing a real dominance as a halfback, and Viliame Kikau can be their finals wrecking ball.
The Broncos will do well to make the finals. They have had a season of turbulence and they are still 12 months away at least from challenging for the premiership.
I’ve seen some real promise this year with the blooding of a host of rookies led by Xavier Coates, Herbie Farnworth and Pat Carrigan.
There’s still no guarantee Brisbane will make the finals. I sense they need to get a big scalp like South Sydney in the run home to make some waves in September.
But right now, the Broncos are building and have to be patient with their investment in youth to be a serious threat to Melbourne and the Roosters.
If they make the playoffs, I can’t see them going past week one.
The Sharks are still clinging on.
They are a hard team to read. I still believe they are adjusting to life with Shaun Johnson as a playmaker. Defensively, they are all over the shop and you can’t win big games when your ‘D’ is not in order.
But if Melbourne hold their form and ride their luck, I sense another “Perfect Storm” is brewing.
Originally published as Darren Lockyer analyses NRL finals contenders and pretenders
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