SuperCoach 2019 Player in Focus: Can SJ defy history with move?
Shaun Johnson’s switch from Warriors to Sharks during the off-season has caught the attention of SuperCoaches everywhere but the historical form of halves on the move needs to be taken into consideration.
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A change in scenery has tempted 15 per cent of SuperCoaches to lock in star playmaker Shaun Johnson for round one.
Currently the 26th most owned player in the game, Johnson ($603,000) will likely be recruited by a host of new sides for the 2019 season.
But will a move across the Tasman help or hinder Johnson’s SuperCoach output?
Formerly regarded as the SuperCoach ‘rollercoaster’, Johnson has developed into the most consistent halfback/five-eighth in the game in recent years.
The former Warrior averaged above 69 points for three consecutive years from 2015-2017, before dropping to a highly respectable 64.44 last season.
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The free-flowing brand of football played by the Warriors perfectly suited Johnson’s expansive style of play.
In contrast, Cronulla’s grinding, low-risk football may not allow the livewire Kiwi to roam the field as he has throughout his career.
Should new coach John Morris restrict Johnson’s attacking mindset, his SuperCoach productivity could suffer.
Regardless, history suggests halves struggle in the early stages of a club switch.
Forging combinations with a new-look spine is difficult to do, with cohesion among players an art that develops over time.
Look no further than the Sydney Roosters in 2019.
They may have won the comp, but it took almost half a season for James Tedesco, Luke Keary, Cooper Cronk and Jake Friend to develop a style suited to their individual games.
Here’s a rundown of how every halfback/five-eighth, who moved clubs for the 2018 season, fared in the opening five rounds at their new team.
For balance, only Ben Hunt’s average for 80-minute games at halfback for Brisbane were counted.
Likewise, only Benji Marshall’s 80-minute games at Brisbane were averaged out.
Mitchell Moses’ five first games after leaving Wests Tigers for Parramatta in 2017 were taken into consideration.
It’s bleak reading for prospective Johnson owners.
Of the nine halves to switch clubs, only Kieran Foran (+2) and Ben Hunt (+3) marginally increased their average in the early stages of their move.
Of the more SuperCoach-relevant players, Mitchell Pearce (-20) was one of the most significantly affected
However a move from the high-flying Roosters to low-lying Newcastle was an obvious factor.
Matt Moylan (-13), Mitchell Moses (-9) and James Maloney (-4) all experienced major drops in average in the early days in their new surroundings.
Don’t let the figures completely steer you away from Johnson, he’s more than capable of defying recent SuperCoach history.
However, the numbers do suggest that waiting on Johnson for a price drop could be the logical move to start the year.
VERDICT
Johnson should be in all sides prior to the Origin period, but wait for a likely price drop before picking him up at reduced value after the first month of the competition.
The weight of recent history, coupled with a move to a new club that will likely alter his SuperCoach-friendly style, is enough to avoid early on.
Originally published as SuperCoach 2019 Player in Focus: Can SJ defy history with move?
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