State of Origin back-up rater game 3: Which stars will and won’t play after Origin
Only a handful of stars have been rested post-Origin so far this season – most due to big travels from Perth. But State of Origin 3 is a different beast.
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We’re almost at the finish line of the 2025 representative rounds. But this one could be the most important to pay attention to given what has unfolded so far.
After Origin Game 1, we only saw a handful of Storm stars rested from action. The rest played on.
After Origin Game 2, it was only the international borders between Australia and New Zealand that saw the Panthers and Warriors contingent miss a game. The rest played on.
So after a gruelling Origin period involving a trip to Perth, will we finally see the mass restings that have been mooted all season? That’s what we’re here to discuss.
With only two games outside of NSW after the decider at Accor Stadium, the travel loads on the tired superstars is less than previous games. But when adding in factors such as days between games, ladder position and cumulative workload hopefully we can paint a clearer picture for you.
So let’s dive in!
From least likely to most likely to back up
Latrell Mitchell, Hudson Young, Josh Papali’i
We’ve started with the easy one. These players rate a zero per cent chance of backing up due to the fact their clubs – the Rabbitohs and Raiders – are on the bye.
Likelihood: 0 per cent chance of backing up.
Brian To’o | 2.7 per cent owned
The revelation emerging about a knee injury sustained during Round 17 makes it hard to fathom how To’o will play two games inside five days. For his own longevity, plus the decent backup options available, I believe he will earn a rest after Origin 3 and miss the Western Sydney derby against Parramatta.
Likelihood: 30 per cent chance of backing up.
Cameron Munster | 39.4 per cent owned
We’ve been waiting for Munster to earn a rest. We thought after Game 1 it would happen. Then we assumed the travel from Perth after Game 2 would be too much. Surely after Game 3, he will earn it?
In his favour is a short trip to Newcastle from Homebush for a Saturday afternoon game. But with a view towards the finals and hopefully the club going one better than last year, I do think now could be the time he earns a break as he traditionally has at some point post Origin.
Likelihood: 33 per cent chance of backing up.
Xavier Coates | 6.8 per cent owned
Coates has never been more important to his club side. Their outside back stocks have taken a serious hit this season, and struggles with his ankle have already kept him from backing up after Games 1 and 2 this series.
I can see Melbourne again being cautious with Coates to make sure his body is right for the rest of the year.
Likelihood: 40 per cent chance of backing up.
Payne Haas | 51.4 per cent owned
No one’s chances of backing up are spoken about more than big Payne Haas. And history is unfortunately not on his side for this one – but by now we all know history doesn’t mean much to Payne as he’s constantly rewriting what we thought was humanly possible.
Haas has traditionally only backed up in two of three post-Origin fixtures for the Broncos. And considering he’s already two from two and had to travel interstate on both occasions, logic says he won’t play.
But with an upcoming bye in Round 20, I’ve no doubt Michael Maguire will want to see him out there in Round 19 provided he’s still standing. I’ll sit on the fence.
Likelihood: 50 per cent chance of backing up.
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Tino Fa’asuamaleaui | 47.8 per cent owned
As we said after Game 2, don’t be shocked to see a reduced role for Tino after Origin. And adding weight to this is an on-going sternum injury which has seen the hulking forward not quite at his damaging best.
He played a season low 37 minutes after Game 2, and we could see similar output in Round 19. Albeit the local derby against the Broncos on Sunday should bring out the best in him.
Likelihood: 50 per cent chance of backing up.
Harry Grant | 11.6 per cent owned
A lot were taken by surprise to not only see Grant back up post Origin 2, but play the full game which eventually went into golden point. You know Craig Bellamy was glad to have him out there, but with a view towards finals I would be shocked if he did that again.
Likelihood: 50 per cent chance of backing up.
Stephen Crichton | 6.9 per cent owned
The Bulldogs skipper has seemingly been managed all series due to an on-going groin concern and to-date has been blessed with two byes directly after Origin games. He’s not as lucky this time with a Saturday evening game looming and travel required to Queensland.
As such, Crichton gets the dubious ‘will see how he pulls up’ from the game rating.
Likelihood: 60 per cent chance of backing up.
Nathan Cleary | 32.1 per cent owned
Again he’s unlikely to goal kick, but otherwise there’s not much preventing Cleary from playing on Sunday after Origin as the Panthers chase a return to the finals to keep their hopes alive of a fifth straight title.
He will need to get through injury free, and any potential issue will make Penrith act on the side of caution, but they need him.
Likelihood: 60 per cent chance of backing up.
Isaah Yeo | 9.6 per cent owned
For a player of his scoring potential, his ownership in SuperCoach is super low. This is all set to change on the run home given his price point. And it could start as soon as Round 19 with Yeo odds on to back up from Origin game 3.
Likelihood: 70 per cent chance of backing up.
Jarome Luai | 8.7 per cent owned
Has a long travel to New Zealand and he’s just emerged from an infection which saw him spend three days in hospital and miss Round 17. So with his club also chasing victories to avoid a fourth straight wooden spoon, he will be there for the Tigers.
Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.
Zac Lomax | 10.6 per cent owned
Lomax’s fitness is finally back to his best after looking a little exhausted after Origin 1. With a huge game against the defending premiers and three days off between games, you’d expect him to do everything he can to play.
Likelihood: 80 per cent chance of backing up.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | 5.3 per cent owned
There’s a lot on Hammer’s shoulders with a shift to fullback in Game 3. The ‘Phins playing the first game of the round also doesn’t help his chances of recovery. But a short trip from Homebush to Shark Park in the Sutherland Shire does.
I expect Hammer to play barring injury.
Likelihood: 70 per cent chance of backing up.
Connor Watson | 19.6 per cent owned
Likely to only play limited minutes off of the bench, Watson is set to feature significantly for the Chooks and is key to their fortunes for the run home.
Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.
Robert Toia | 25.9 per cent owned
A long turnaround is a good thing, and Toia will be odds on to show up in Round 19 for the Chooks despite his massive workload so far this season.
Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.
Tom Dearden | 4.7 per cent owned
Dearden’s one of the fittest men in the competition and only an injury would prevent him from showing up for his beloved Cows.
Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.
Angus Crichton | 4.4 per cent owned
We know Angus will want to play for his Chooks and had an impeccable record of backing up for his club last year. He’s the closest to Payne Haas on the scale of being ‘built different’ and should get through his usual 80 minutes.
Likelihood: 75 per cent chance of backing up.
Gehemat Shibasaki | 20.2 per cent owned
If you asked me at any point if I expected to be writing about Shiba’s ability to back up, I would’ve said zero per cent. Yet here we are, and the 27-year-old has well and truly earned his spot.
Barring injury, the Broncos have a decent amount of time to travel back to Brisbane for their Queensland Derby against the Titans. So I fully expect him to play and show off that newly minted Queensland spirit.
Likelihood: 90 per cent chance of backing up.
Pat Carrigan | 14.5 per cent owned
There aren’t many “sure things” in this game, but Carrigan backing up to play a Queensland derby on Sunday after Origin is one of them. His bench role in Origin won’t take as much out of the tank, plus there’s that whole ‘club pride’ thing which will make him want to get out there and bash the Titans.
Likelihood: 90 per cent chance of backing up.
Jacob Kiraz & Reece Walsh
The two 18th men for this game will only be required on field should calamity strike. So expect them both to suit up in Round 19 for their clubs.
Likelihood: 100 per cent chance of backing up.
Originally published as State of Origin back-up rater game 3: Which stars will and won’t play after Origin
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