NRL teams round 20, SuperCoach analysis: Are Nathan Cleary, Tom Trbojevic gambles worth it?

Two greats of SuperCoach are ripe for the picking this week in Manly’s Tom Trbojevic and Penrith’s Nathan Cleary. But is now the time to move?

With Origin players backing up and three teams on the bye, it’s a sneaky tough week.

Meanwhile, SuperCoaches have huge decisions to make on two greats Tom Trbojevic and Nathan Cleary.

But is now the time to move?

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TO CLEARY OR NOT TO CLEARY?

* Nathan Cleary - If you’re new to SuperCoach (and NRL) then you may be wondering why there’s such a rush to bring Cleary – currently averaging just 62.4PPG from his five games so far this season – into teams. A quick look at Cleary’s previous season averages answers that. In 2020 he averaged 83PPG, 2021 it was 108PPG, in 2022 80PPG and in 2023 the Panthers’ star averaged 89PPG.

The rewards of owning Cleary are significant. The risks that come with buying him this week are also significant. Cleary has a bad history with injuries in general (he has not played 20+ regular season games in the past five seasons) and in particular this year.

He also comes with a hefty price tag ($805,300) and a BE (189) which makes it almost certain that you could wait this week and get Cleary for less money next week. For mine the risk is worth the reward. Surely the Panthers don't risk Cleary early again, and few players can go larger than the great man.

Nathan Cleary is set to return. Picture: Tom Parrish

TO TURBO OR NOT TO TURBO?

* Tom Trbojevic - One player who can go larger than Cleary is Manly’s Tom Trbojevic (he owns five of the top-20 scores in SC history). Another with a horrible injury history, Tommy Turbo was quiet in the centres in his first game back from a lengthy lay off but then reminded all those who had forgotten his ability with an easy 119 points against the Knights (back at his preferred fullback position).

Priced at $730K I can see why plenty are jumping on his back. My preference is to wait until Manly have ‘served’ their last bye in round 22 and grab Tom after that, as his run to the finals (Raiders, Warriors, Tigers, Bulldogs and Sharks) is appealing. It means missing what looks like a promising matchup this week (Titans at home) but the Roosters in round 21 then bye has me leaning to wait over hold.

Of course it helps that I have solid fullbacks (Tedesco/Campbell) but if I were in a position where I needed to trade a fullback (ie Fletcher Sharpe owners) then I could see myself grabbing Turbo this week.

Tom Trbojevic had a day out against the Knights. Picture: NRL Photos

WINNERS FROM TEAMS

* Greg Marzhew - Only 14 points on the weekend due to copping an early cork. But he’s been named this week and has Kalyn Ponga back in the side feeding him tries. Keep an eye on Late Mail.

* Reuben Garrick - Made it through only 63 minutes on the weekend. Garrick didn’t train all week because of illness but is on the team sheet this week and will play.

* Ben Trbojevic - Returns from concussion protocols in a crucial extra number for many, but he’s relinquished his starting spot with Karl Lawton preferred.

* Harry Grant - Named to back-up from Origin despite a sternum injury.

* (Most) Origin players - Dylan Edwards and Isaah Yeo are the only two confirmed rested so far.

LOSERS FROM TEAMS

* Api Koroisau - First the good news. Koroisau’s calf injury is not as bad as first thought and he’ll miss only 1-2 weeks. But for those with Koro as their top hooker, it’s time to sell. He’s the fourth most popular sell at time of writing.

* Blaize Talagi and Kayal Iro - Tough decisions here. Both are on the bye this week and therefore popular sells after making huge cash. The trade up to a genuine keeper or the trade down to free up money is definitely tempting. Equally though, both make for great 18th, 19th or 20th men for the run home after averaging around the 60 mark.

* Euan Aitken - Was emerging as a great POD for the run home but ruptured his pectoral against the Rabbitohs and is out long-term.

MORE BUYS

* Jayden Campbell - How good was he on the weekend? A popular buy heading into the game there were fears he might be stuck in a job share situation with AJ Brimson returning but that did not happen and instead Campbell lit up the left edge attack for the Titans.

Campbell added $120K to his price last week and with a BE of -30 looks set to add another $80-100k this week too. He and the Titans don’t have what I would describe as an ‘easy’ draw from here to home with Manly (at Brookvale), Sharks, Roosters and Panthers still to come.

But around those games are ones which look pretty nice in Dolphins, Broncos, Dragons and Knights. Available at fullback and five-eighth I wouldn’t talk anyone out of the JC ownership club.

* Ronaldo Mulitalo - I must admit to being a bit surprised at Mulitalo being so high on the ‘buy’ list. He finally rewarded those (me) who jumped on him after the round 16 bye, delivering three tries and 136 points against the Wests Tigers last week. But the Sharks are on a bye and I’m never a fan of buying someone before they are named to play.

* Keaon Koloamatangi/Haumole Olakau’atu - I was bringing in one of these players leading into last week and struggled to split them. On the one hand I loved Koloamatangi’s terrific base. On the other Olakau’atu was $100K cheaper and had great attacking upside. In the end I picked the cheaper guy. Haumole scored less points, but thanks to a try it was just one point less. Honestly, would be happy with either.

* Izack Tago - Some bargain hunting going on here. The return of Cleary (above) should unlock Tago’s potential and at sub $400K he’s an absolute bargain. I like it.

* Connor Watson - Plenty are selling Koroisau and I think the majority are correct in making Watson the best replacement option. Bit risky with Watson slated to play a utility role for the Blues, but I would think that provided he does not get injured on Wednesday he’s a strong chance to back up for the Chooks.

* Tevita Pangai Jr - TPJ shredded the Rabbitohs last week scoring 90 points off the back of a try, linebreak and offloads galore. The Dolphins need him through the middle so now that he is fit I expect around 50 minutes to remain the usual. Attacking upside and minutes are tempting. A word of warning though, the South Sydney middles were pretty weak sauce and I don’t think Pangai Jr will get it as easy against the Panthers this week.

* Matt Burton - $200K cheaper than Campbell and $275K cheaper than Cleary. Great option for those looking for a cut-priced gun.

Matt Burton is at a cheap price. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

BRONCOS CALL ON REYNOLDS

Broncos captain Adam Reynolds is set to answer an SOS from coach Kevin Walters and make a shock return from injury to save Brisbane’s season.

Reynolds has been named on an extended bench for Saturday’s clash against the Knights in Newcastle as the Broncos attempt to snap a six-game losing streak.

The influential halfback suffered a torn biceps 10 weeks ago which was expected to sideline him for three-to-four months following surgery.

However Reynolds is nearing an early return in what would be a major boost for the under-pressure Broncos (7-10), who have slumped to 13th on the ladder in his absence.

Named in jersey No. 24, Reynolds trained with the top team at Red Hill on Tuesday and must pass a fitness test on Friday to have any chance of facing the Knights.

Broncos five-eighth Ezra Mam said Reynolds would be a welcome addition when he returns.

“We are not too sure when Reyno’s full return is but we are happy to have him back training with us,” he said.

“He is definitely helping and guiding us, especially our halves and spine. Having him on the park training is big for our team.

“When he comes back, we don’t know, but it will be a big impact for us.

“He has been very sad to miss out and he wants to come back as fast as he can. He’s doing great with his recovery and hopefully we can have him back soon.

“I have missed him on the field, but in saying that it has been a good opportunity for myself to step up and take control of the team. It has been a bit of growth for myself and handling the game.”

The Broncos haven’t won since beating Manly by one point at Magic Round in May and their quest for grand final redemption is hanging by a thread.

Reynolds would be a huge inclusion against the Knights and Walters has also named Origin quartet Payne Haas, Reece Walsh, Pat Carrigan and Selwyn Cobbo on the extended bench, pending Wednesday night’s series decider.

The Broncos have shown signs of improvement in recent losses to Penrith and the Dragons, but the bottom line is they need to start winning to have any chance of finishing in the top eight.

Adam Reynolds trains with Kotoni Staggs at Red Hill. Picture: Liam Kidston

NRL ROUND 20

RAIDERS v WARRIORS

Friday, 8pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders

1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jordan Rapana 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies

Bench: 14. Danny Levi 15. Trey Mooney 16. Ata Mariota 17. Zac Hosking

Interchange: 18. Adam Cook 19. Albert Hopoate 20. Simi Sasagi 21. Zac Woolford 22. Emre Guler

Warriors

1. Taine Tuaupiki 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Ali Leiataua 4. Adam Pompey 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Te Maire Martin 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Marata Niukore 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Dylan Walker

Bench: 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Jackson Ford 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Leka Halasima

Interchange: 18. Tom Ale 20. Bunty Afoa 21. Edward Kosi 22. Moala Graham-Taufa 23. Jacob Laban

RABBITOHS v TIGERS

Saturday 3pm, Industree Group Stadium, Gosford

Rabbitohs

1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Taane Milne 4. Richard Kennar 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Cody Walker 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Cameron Murray 12. Michael Chee Kam 13. Keaon Koloamatangi

Bench: 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Tallis Duncan 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Siliva Havili

Interchange: 18. Dion Teaupa 19. Fletcher Myers 20. Liam Le Blanc 21. Thomas Fletcher 22. Jacob Host

Tigers

1. Jahream Bula 2. Luke Laulilii 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Solomona Faataape 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. David Klemmer 11. John Bateman 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Fonua Pole

Bench: 14. Latu Fainu 15. Alex Twal 16. Sione Fainu 17. Jordan Miller

Interchange: 18. Justin Matamua 19. Heath Mason 20. Reuben Porter 21. Solomon Alaimalo 22. Apisai Koroisau

KNIGHTS v BRONCOS

Saturday 5.30pm, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Knights

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Krystian Mapapalangi 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Will Pryce 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott

Bench: 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Dylan Lucas

Interchange: 18. Tyson Gamble 19. Mathew Croker 20. Thomas Cant 21. Fletcher Sharpe 22. Thomas Jenkins

Broncos

1. Tristan Sailor 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Deine Mariner 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Joshua Rogers 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Xavier Willison 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington

Bench: 14. Blake Mozer 15. Tyson Smoothy 16. Josiah Karapani 17. Martin Taupau

Interchange: 18. Vaa Semu 19. Cory Paix 20. Reece Walsh 21. Selwyn Cobbo 22. Patrick Carrigan 23. Payne Haas 24. Adam Reynolds

STORM v ROOSTERS

Saturday, 7:35pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Grant Anderson 6. Tyran Wishart 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero

Bench: 14. Sualauvi Faalogo 15. Christian Welch 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Alec MacDonald

Interchange: 18. Reimis Smith 19. Joe Chan 20. Dean Ieremia 21. Chris Lewis 22. Lazarus Vaalepu

Roosters

1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii 4. Sitili Tupouniua 5. Dominic Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Terrell May 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Connor Watson

Bench: 14. Sandon Smith 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Naufahu Whyte

Interchange: 18. Ethan King 19. Siua Wong 20. Blake Steep 21. Jake Elliott 22. Salesi Foketi 23. Michael Jennings 24. Zach Dockar-Clay

PANTHERS v DOLPHINS

Sunday, 2pm, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith

Panthers

1. Daine Laurie 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Paul Alamoti 6. Brad Schneider 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Luke Garner 13. Matt Eisenhuth

Bench: 14. Trent Toelau 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Luron Patea

Interchange: 18. Isaiah Iongi 19. Mavrik Geyer 20. Soni Luke 21. Tyrone Peachey 22. Jarome Luai 23. Brian To’o 24. Liam Martin

Dolphins

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Max Plath 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Kenny Bromwich

Bench: 14. Josh Kerr 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Trai Fuller

Interchange: 18. Sean O’Sullivan 19. Tesi Niu 20. Anthony Milford 21. Mason Teague 22. Oryn Keeley

SEA EAGLES v TITANS

Sunday, 4:05pm, 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Sea Eagles

1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tommy Talau 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Nathan Brown 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Toafofoa Sipley

Interchange: 18. Caleb Navale 19. Clayton Faulalo 20. Jamie Humphreys 21. Corey Waddell 22. Taniela Paseka

Titans

1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Erin Clark 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall

Bench: 14. Isaac Liu 15. Klese Haas 16. Keenan Palasia 17. Josiah Pahulu

Interchange: 18. AJ Brimson 19. Joe Stimson 20. Tanah Boyd 21. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 22. Jaylan De Groot

COWBOYS v BULLDOGS

Sunday, 6:15pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville

Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Braidon Burns 6. Jake Clifford 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Jake Granville 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Sam McIntyre

Bench: 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Jamal Shibasaki 17. Griffin Neame

Interchange: 18. Thomas Duffy 19. Semi Valemei 20. Valentine Holmes 21. Tom Dearden 22. Jeremiah Nanai 23. Reece Robson 24. Reuben Cotter

Bulldogs

1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Blake Wilson 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Josh Curran 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann

Bench: 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Poasa Faamausili 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Lipoi Hopoi

Interchange: 19. Harry Hayes 20. Drew Hutchison 21. Hayze Perham 22. Jeral Skelton 23. Chris Patolo 25. Kitione Kautoga

Originally published as NRL teams round 20, SuperCoach analysis: Are Nathan Cleary, Tom Trbojevic gambles worth it?