NRL SuperCoach 2018 Stat Attack: Kalyn Ponga, Mitchell Moses, Paul Vaughan, most popular players
YOUR resident SuperCoach stats nerd Trent Copeland is back with the numbers on the NRL’s consistency kings, Kalyn Ponga, Mitchell Moses, Paul Vaughan, the most popular players, the players most affected by the new stats and more.
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THE 2018 season is almost here, and guess what … it’s stat time people!
Your resident SuperCoach — presented by hipages — stats nerd is here for another season to unearth the hidden gems each week that will get you ahead of the curve (your mates). Stats like highest projected scores, captaincy percentages, ownership nuances, and career/opposition trends.
Settle in for a huge opening edition including the consistency kings, the most hyped teenager this century at the Knights, Mitchell Moses, Paul Vaughan, the most popular players, the new stats and players affected most and more … Here we go!
Kalyn Ponga | 47 or 61.16 + 8?
If you haven’t heard the Ponga hype, well, you’ve obviously been living under a rock for the past 18 months, as this kid is the real deal. But is the new Knights No.1 going to join the elite of the SuperCoach world? Well, what I can tell you is the fact that Ponga is priced at $419,900 which equates to an average of around 47PPG — that’s unders.
Stats show us that whenever Ponga has been given an opportunity at fullback he has been great — in 2017 he averaged 61.16PPG in six full 80-minute games, albeit in a stellar Cowboys outfit. Ponga’s tryscoring record in the lower grades is beyond a joke, plus the goalkicking duties should be all his in a much-improved Knights outfit (normally adds approximately 8PPG to a player’s average — if they can actually kick) and all of this leads us to his extremely high 29 per cent ownership — third highest behind James Tedesco and Connor Watson. The risk lies in the fact that Ponga is at a new club, has just nine games of NRL to his name (having never had the rigours of a full NRL season at fullback) and the Knights have the worst opening draw of any team. Just how high can this superstar rookie go?
Join Tom Sangster, Rob Sutherland and David Campbell a the podcast crew discuss the latest cheapie news including the likely round one omission of Taane Milne.
Trades | 37 & 1.48
If you weren’t aware, the NRL has reduced the amount of regular season matches by one game (25 rounds now) for each team, and changed the bye/Origin structure. As a result, SuperCoaches now have 3 trades LESS this season. Yes, those little men at the top left of your team page will disappear even quicker!
It shouldn’t need to be said, but 37 trades does NOT equate to you being able to use two every week. 37 trades into 25 weeks = 1.48 trades per week. So what does this mean? Show some discipline!
In years gone past 40 trades into 26 rounds was the equation, with two trades per week and the three ‘big’ bye rounds seeing four trades available to trade-a-holics such as myself. This year, it’s just plain two per week even in the two major bye weeks, with one “SUPER trade week” between rounds 15 and 16 to set up for the last bye round and the run home.
“Quick Maffs” says if you use all available trades up until after the round 17 bye week that will have you with ZERO trades left with plenty of season remaining, and with easier bye-planning this year you will need some left to be competitive! Big Shaq knows all.
Mitchell Moses | 74.5 & 19
When looking into picking your SuperCoach starting squad each season, one great (and very easy for SuperCoach Stats subscribers) way of assessing potential breakout stars or ‘underpriced’ guns is looking at the post-origin splits and in Moses’ case the split between his old club and the new surroundings mid-season at the Eels. Let’s take a look …
Career averages (at the Tigers): 39.4PPG, 37.8PPG, 55.5PPG & 41.9PPG
Not too bad for a young half in a struggling outfit, but what I want to open your eyes to here is just how good Moses was when slotting into the halfback jersey at the Eels from round 11 last season. His totals were 14 matches and 788 points at 56.29PPG but the last six rounds after Origin returned scores of 110, 110, 33, 110, 53 and 31 for an average of 74.5PPG. Can he continue that type of form into 2018? A healthy 19 per cent of SuperCoaches obviously think so. And if he can, he’s significantly underpriced at $454,800.
Consistency | 5128
There is a SuperCoach Stats consistency marker, but the formula I’m using here is the past three seasons of data — games played, overall points and average to spit out the best of the best. This is about finding the most reliable (always in the top echelon of scorers), resilient (have to be playing most games to be in this list) and ultimately players dishing up “value” who are worth paying up for each year. Here’s the list:
Sam Burgess (67 matches): 1355 + 1718 + 2055 (wow!) = 5128 points (76.54PPG)
Cameron Smith (66 matches): 1504 + 1802 + 1577 = 4883 points (73.98PPG)
Simon Mannering (68 matches): 1637 + 1483 + 1658 = 4778 points (70.26PPG)
Anthony Milford (68 matches): 1402 + 1597 + 1552 = 4551 points (66.92PPG)
Paul Gallen (58 matches): 1825 + 1357 + 1264 = 4446 points (76.65PPG)
Jarrod Croker (70 matches): 1217 + 1722 + 1461 = 4400 points (62.86PPG)
James Tedesco (62 matches): 1419 + 1186 + 1782 = 4387 points (70.75PPG)
Jason Taumololo (68 matches): 1657 + 1555 + 1126 = 4338 points (63.79PPG)
Jake Trbojevic (69 matches): 1687 + 1507 + 1130 = 4324 points (62.66PPG)
Shaun Johnson (60 matches): 1300 + 1667 + 1269 = 4236 points (70.6PPG)
Andrew Fifita (60 matches): 1413 + 1586 + 1174 = 4173 points (69.55PPG)
Ethan Lowe (72 matches): 1259 + 1543 + 1340 = 4142 points (57.52PPG)
Gareth Widdop (68 matches): 1533 + 1202 + 1330 = 4065 points (59.77PPG)
Surgess is king! Obviously names like Thurston, Tuivasa-Sheck, Greg Inglis and Tohu Harris etc miss out due to major injuries, but this list gives you a great indication of who you can lock in and throw away the key. Gal the highest average, and the perennially underrated Ethan Lowe the only player with the 100 per cent games played record.
Paul Vaughan v Ryan James circa 2016 | 16.7 vs. 13.2
Ryan James was the breakout star forward of 2016, scoring 1750 points at a humungous average of 72.9PPG and PPM of 1.2 to finish third for overall points. Notably, 11 tries in 24 matches for a front-rower was the big difference-maker on his previous seasons. How did James go in backing that up? Last season he had 1314 points at an average of 59.7PPG and a PPM of 1.0 in 22 matches, with just THREE tries. A difference of 13.2PPG, but the relevance here is the regression to the mean of attacking numbers for a FRF.
Paul Vaughan was 2017’s Ryan James. An underpriced PPM gun at a new club offering slightly more minutes, who increased his numbers from 919 points at 51.1PPG and 1.3PPM at the Raiders to a whopping 1560 points at 67.8PPG and ridiculously high 1.4PPM – finishing eighth in overall points scored and an increase of 16.7PPG. The biggest increase in Vaughan’s numbers you ask? EIGHT tries! With the addition of big-minute man James Graham to the Dragons pack plus a likely regression of attacking numbers, you will be paying for the absolute ceiling at $602k.
Tui Lolohea | 46.7 v 59.9
The common perception with Lolohea is that he is set for a breakout year playing his “best” position at fullback for the Tigers while kicking goals. Let me paint a picture as to why it may not play out that way. Lolohea has had some incredible performances in his career, but by way of averages per position, his “best” position for SuperCoach is most definitely at No.6 where he averaged 59.9PPG across 13 matches for the Tigers last season. Compare that number to the 46.7PPG (albeit not consistently kicking goals during this period) Lolohea has averaged in his 22 matches at fullback and you have an interesting contradiction to popular thought processes.
Most owned | 10
Want to play it safe? Go with the herd? Well here are the most-owned players SuperCoaches worldwide are locking into their teams according to SuperCoach Stats with fewer than three weeks to go until the NRL begins.
Bryce Cartwright 2RF | 5/8 ($260,300 | Titans) – 56.3 per cent of teams
Taane Milne 2RF | CTW ($192,800 | Tigers) – 49.1 per cent
Cameron Smith HOK ($667,400 | Storm) – 48 per cent
Lachlan Croker HFB | 5/8 ($164,600 | Sea Eagles) – 47.1 per cent
Matthew Lodge FRF ($208,900 | Broncos) – 45 per cent
Connor Watson 5/8 | FLB ($286,700 | Knights) – 39.9 per cent
James Tedesco FLB ($599,700 | Roosters) – 39.7 per cent
Johnathan Thurston HFB ($536,300 | Cowboys) – 37.1 per cent
Sam Burgess 2RF | FRF ($572,600 | Rabbitohs) – 33.8 per cent
Jason Taumololo 2RF ($668,400 | Cowboys) – 32 per cent
As you can see, there are lots of household names, with a few of the seemingly locked in cheapies. There is however certainly merit in ‘Ying’ing’ when others ‘Yang’ if you get my drift …
Kicks that go dead | -3
Have you heard about this new stat in SuperCoach 2018? Any kick error that results in an opposition seven-tackle set incurs a -3 point penalty to that player. Naturally the players who kick the most in this area are the best playmakers in SuperCoach, so who will it affect the most? The top 10 list for kicks dead from 2017 is quite alarming.
Josh McCrone – 10
Anthony Milford – 9
Shaun Johnson – 9
Mitchell Moses – 8
Daly Cherry-Evans – 8
Cameron Smith – 7
Adam Reynolds – 7
Aidan Sezer – 7
Billy Slater – 7
Blake Green – 7
Notable mention … Johnathan Thurston – 5 (in just 7 matches)
As you can see, the majority of players are SuperCoach GUNS! It’s not going to kill the scoring output all that much, but it may cap the ceiling of the higher-usage players somewhat, particularly in the mid-tier bracket of players like Kieran Foran and Luke Brooks who regularly average around 50 but are never in the “Gun” category.
David Nofoaluma & Jordan Rapana | 5 & 8 v 21
You know when you look at a player’s stats for a season and think to yourself … “Man, that’s a great season, but surely a bit of a fluke”. Well, David Nofoaluma and Jordan Rapana have changed the mentality around “upside” CTW’s coming with inconsistency. These two are the only two players to finish in the top five in the CTW category two years running, averaging 60PPG+ in the process. The base stats from work rate is key here, both men regularly taking 15+ hit-ups per game, tackle bust and offload numbers are through the roof and ultimately it’s like having Taumololo playing in the CTW for you!
Choosing between the two? Both possess ridiculous upside, with Rapana notching scores of 136, 170, 120, 132, 98 and 119 (yes, all in 2017!) and Nofoaluma with 109, 100, 98, 88, 95 and 89. The main difference between them being a mere eight tries to Nofo compared to 21 for Rapana. Twenty-one!!! Could Nofo ascend to No.1 this year?
There you have it. Season 2018 is less than two weeks away, plenty of tinkering to be done between now and then – so get studying! As always, hit us up on @SuperCoachNRL or @copes9 if there are any stats you would love to see. Good luck!
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MORE SUPERCOACH:
Full SuperCoach news section / Cheapie Bible 2018 / Tom Sangster’s team / Copes’ team/ Reigning champ’s team / Wilfred Zee’s team / Top 10 PODs / SuperCoach strategy 101 / Most popular SuperCoach players / Must-haves for 2018 / Pre-season casualty ward / Eels fans are biggest SuperCoach addicts / Former champ’s top 10 mid-rangers / Champion’s Choice: Alex Twal / CTW: Risk vs. reward / HOK: Smith or not? / Your club’s biggest selection issue / SuperCoach study guide: Broncos / Bulldogs / Cowboys / Eels / Knights / Panthers / Roosters / Rabbitohs / Raiders / Sharks / Sea Eagles / Storm / Tigers / Titans / Warriors
Originally published as NRL SuperCoach 2018 Stat Attack: Kalyn Ponga, Mitchell Moses, Paul Vaughan, most popular players
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