KFC SuperCoach NRL 2023: The mid-range winners and losers

Guns and Cheapies is the tried and tested method for SuperCoach success. But don’t dismiss the merits of some of all mid-ranged priced players. We review the popular picks.

Some are guns of the past working back from an injury, others look to have increased opportunity due to roster moves in the off-season.

Then there are the traps, popular picks who you probably should avoid.

Rob Sutherland rates the best and worst of the popular picks priced between $350K and $565K.

BUY

Brandon Smith HOK $478,200

Before the season started I had Smith as a SuperCoach must-have and I saw nothing in the pre-season (nor from the Tibby Cotter bridge while stalking the squad) to change my mind.

A legitimate gun at his position when a starting hooker available at a mid-trange price. Sign me up.

Christian Welch FRF $464,000

Cheap to start 2023 due to an Achilles injury limiting him to just a single game in 2022, Welch averaged 59PPG in 2021 and I expect the Storm to give him all the minutes he can handle this year. I’m not expecting Payne Haas/Joe Tapine numbers but he should get close as he’s a willing worker and has a sneaky good offload to go with it.

Tanah Boyd finished 2022 well for the Titans. Picture: Dave Rowland/Getty Images

Tanah Boyd HFB/HOK $384,600

As I wrote in my team reveal where I had Boyd as my HFB2: Word out of the Gold Coast is that Tanah Boyd is partnering his old Keebra Park High teammate David Fifita on the right edge of the Titans. Boyd played the final five games of the season at halfback and averaged a very respectable 60PPG while doing so. Boyd looked solid if not spectacular in the trials and his dual position could come in handy as we swing between premium hooking and halfback options.

HOLD

Eliesa Katoa 2RF $411,100/Teig Wilton 2RF $493,600/Luke Garner $435,100/

Marata Niukore 2RF $419,500

I’m bracketing the four backrowers, as opposed to ‘workhorses’ who push through the middle, where they play 80 minutes you should expect base stat production in the 35-40 PPG range. All have significant attacking upside though and this is why plenty are prepared to take the punt on them. Former Warrior Katoa (16.6% ownership) is now at the Storm where he looks set to play close to 80 minutes on an edge for the team that scored more points than any other in 2022. Wilton (14.8% ownership) appears to be locked in on the left at the Sharks now with Wade Graham to start from the bench in his final season. Wilton averaged 61PPG as a starter in 2022 and is priced at a $150K discount to that season average (as he averaged considerably less when coming off the bench). Garner (14.6% ownership) was another pre-season darling after shifting from the wooden-spoon Wests Tigers to the reigning premier Panthers. Set to fill the left-edge hole created by the departure of Viliame Kikau all signs pointed to Garner being a SuperCoach steal. Garner’s pre-season form was lacklustre though, with just three runs in 64 minutes against St Helens, and his ownership rate has plummeted. Niukore (2.6% ownership) is the POD of the lot. Used as a Mr-fix-it by the Eels swinging between centre, edge and middle, Niukore appears locked in on an edge at the Warriors for 2023. Across the 12 games Niukore started at either 2RF or lock in 2020-22 (per rugby league project) he averaged a good if not spectacular 50PPG.

Of the four, Wilton is the one with the most appeal; however, Graham lurking on the bench is a big worry and I can see why many are just putting him on the watchlist for now while we see how the minutes play out in the opening two rounds. Katoa is a gamble I could take, Garner is one I wouldn’t while Niukore’s low ownership adds to his appeal.

Tom Gilbert FRF/2RF $494,100

In the pre-season I was ALL IN on Gilbert based off his 2022 form and development with the Cowboys. Now at the Dolphins and limited to just one trial my enthusiasm has waned somewhat. One for the watchlist rather than my round one team now.

Adam Elliott 2RF ($564,500)

Former Raider Adam Elliott was very much a cognoscenti consensus pick in the pre-season and it is easy to see why as when he played more than 55MPG in 2022 Elliott averaged 70PPG. That’s why I’m keen. Now the but. Osteitis pubis has hampered Elliott’s pre-season meaning we have not yet seen him in action. Even if selected to play round one I can’t risk him.

Newcastle Knights recruit Adam Elliott. Picture: Newcastle Knights

Daniel Saifiti FRF $484,000/Jacob Saifiti FRF $437,400

The departure of David Klemmer and Mitch Barnett leaves plenty of minutes to fill in the middle rotation at the Knights. Barnett is effectively replaced by Adam Elliott but Klemmer’s 61 minutes per game are up for grabs. The Knights did add Jack Hetherington to their line-up but, all due respect to Jack, while he has played big minutes in the middle (in 2021) he’s a perennial suspension risk and even when available for selection he’s not really a 61MPG guy. Sooo long story short, I expect the Saifiti twins to get more time on ground in 2023.

Neither knocked it out of the park in the pre-season though which has me looking elsewhere for now.

The Saifiti twins.

SELL

Josh Hodgson HOK $385,000

In 2015 Josh Hodgson, with a full head of hair, came to Australia and made an instant impact playing big minutes at hooker for the Raiders. That year Hodgson played 24 games, 2016 it was 23 and in 2017 23 again (in the regular season). Fast forward to 2018, the widow's peak is far more pronounced and the first long-term injury (knee) strikes, restricting Hodgson to 11 games. Hodgson bounced back from that to play 21 games in 2019. Then the ‘even-year curse’ struck again and Hodgson played just nine games in 2020. Rinse repeat, 2021 he played 20 games, then 2022 – none. Now at a new club, and seemingly crucially, in an odd numbered year, Hodgson is interesting many SuperCoaches. Which is reasonable as the canny Englishman has been a 55+PPG hooker in the past and is now at a club (Parramatta) with a top-tier spine and very little competition for minutes at his position. What we saw of Hodgson in the pre-season indicates he has lost little in defence, but offers little by way of attack. For the same price I much prefer Tanah Boyd.

Holy moly, Hodgo 💪🤯❗️#PARRAdisepic.twitter.com/zReZVGvMF0

— Parramatta Eels (@TheParraEels) January 20, 2023

Josh Addo-Carr CTW $532,500/Xavier Coates CTW $466,900

Both wingers will at some stage in 2023 go on a try-scoring spree and boast 3RA (three round averages) in, at least, the 75-85PPG range. But will you catch that lightning in a bottle to start the season? Maybe, and for those that take the punt and it pays off congrats. Personally I prefer a premium centre like Murray Taulagi as he has much better base, throws more offloads and plays for a team with the best opening two month draw of any in the NRL.

Origin speedsters Josh Addo-Carr (NSW) and Xavier Coates (Qld) are prolific if not reliable SuperCoach scorers. Picture: Peter Wallis

Tevita Pangai FRF/2RF $525,600

Last year was very much a season in two parts for one of the most mercurial forwards in the game. TPJ started the season playing big minutes on an edge and averaged 59PPG over his opening 10 games. After that the Bulldogs opted to deploy Pangai in a mix of bench, lock and edge roles and he averaged just 39.9PPG over his final nine games. At his best Pangai is a SC game winner with the game’s best offload game and a destructive running style matched only by the likes of David Fifita. Tipped to play through the middle when he plays TPJ could be worth owning - however, a pre-season injury means we won’t see him in round one.

Addin Fonua-Blake FRF $550,200

Remember Dance Monkey by Tones and I? That catchy tune is one we were all bopping to over the back end of 2019. Seems a long time ago now doesn’t it? Well so was the time when AFB was relevant as a topscoring FRF. In 2019 the wrecking-ball (I’m contractually obliged to use that term at least once per article) averaged 66PPG. In 2020 that dropped to 60PPG, in 2021 to 58PPG and in 2022 to 52PPG – all despite Fonua-Blake’s minutes staying largely steady.

Luke Thompson FRF/2RF $512,400

Comparing Thompson’s 2022 average, and thus 2023 starting price, of just 49PPG to his more impressive 2021 output of 66PPG suggests there might be a bargain dual-position option lurking here. I’m not so sure. Rather I think Thompson’s 2021 stats were boosted by a try/tackle bust rate that his 2020 and 2022 stats suggest are the outlier rather than the norm. And to top it off the big unit was injured in the pre-season and may miss the entire season.

Luke Thompson of the Bulldogs. Picture: Jason McCawley/Getty Images

Hayze Perham CTW $370,900

Bulldogs coach Cameron Ciraldo dropped a good old fashioned pre-season bombshell in January declaring that Hayze Perham had his nose in front of Jake Averillo in the race to play fullback for the Bulldogs this year. Immediately Perham’s stocks soared as SuperCoaches love a cheap(ish) fullback available in their CTW, not to mention the big-spending Dogs look to have plenty of points in them in 2023. I’m not convinced just yet myself.

Perham spent 2021 and 2022 largely playing in the Parramatta NSW Cup side. Which is not a slight on him, the Eels spine is a tough one to crack, but I would note that his NSW Cup stats are hardly exciting reading. In 2022 Perham moved between fullback and centre playing 17 games, scoring nine tries and racking up 14 assists (though it must be noted half of that total came in just two games against the Dragons). Those are solid numbers but it’s a big step up to the NRL. Perham did not look ‘bad’ playing fullback in the final pre-season game, but nor did he look fantastic. Pass for me.

Izaac Thompson CTW $336,700

The right wing at the Rabbitohs appears to be Thompson’s for round one, but it’s not a lock. Also the price is steep for a guy with just two NRL starts to his name with round one owners paying a premium for Thompson scoring a try in each game.

Kotoni Staggs is a big risk to start the season with.

Kotoni Staggs CTW $511,900

On his day Staggs is one of the best CTW in SuperCoach. He can really get lost in his own head though and the consistency in terms of scoring just is not there for me so early in the season. Maybe later when our increased salary caps mean you can take more chances in the backline but not early.

Erin Clark HOK/2RF $494,500

The recruitment of Sam Verrills frees up Erin Clark to move to lock for the Titans. Clark showed his ability as a link backrower in rounds 18-21 (inclusive) last year averaging 60PPG of which 40PPG came in base. The very small sample size is an obvious concern though and it looks like Isaac Liu has beaten Clark for the starting lock role for now.

Kalyn Ponga 5/8|FLB $530,600

Yes the price is tempting, but new position, concussion worries and a pre-season injury all have me wary.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL 2023: The mid-range winners and losers