Entering the NRL SuperCoach No Go Zone: Biggest mistakes of 2024

NRL SuperCoaches have got these calls blatantly wrong. It’s time to hit that ‘Trade’ button because we’ve picked apart the credentials of a host of popular buys.

When scrolling through the list of most popular players it’s clear SuperCoaches have it blatantly wrong on a number of names.

Then underneath them is another tier of players who we can mount serious cases against, yet are not complete no-gos just yet.

So reach for that ‘T’ button because below we pick apart the credentials of a host of popular purchases.

NO GO ZONE

Xavier Savage - FLB/CTW, Raiders, $350,200 - Owned by a massive 20 per cent of SuperCoaches, Savage is little chance of playing round one. The speedy fullback/winger was one of the better cheapies in his breakout season of 2022, making $174,700. But he fell out of favour last year and seems a fair way down Ricky Stuart’s pecking order.

Sebastian Kris, Jordan Rapana and Chevy Stewart are all seemingly ahead at fullback (note Kris had three Pacific Championships games count towards his suspension and will therefore miss just the opening round of the season). The likes of Nick Cotric, Albert Hopoate and Rapana appear ahead at wing.

Xavier Savage fell out of favour last season. Picture: NRL Photos

Chevy Stewart - FLB/CTW, Raiders, $204,300 – Speaking of the Canberra fullback spot, plenty are backing Stewart to win the role for round one and he’s currently in 30 per cent of teams. This huge ownership is no doubt based at least partly on the suspension of Kris.

However, as per above, it was revealed this week that Kris effectively had his suspension reduced and will only miss one round. In other words, even if Stewart wins the role, there is every chance he plays just one week and then burns a hole on our bench indefinitely.

Brendan Piakura - 2RF, Broncos, $426,800 - The departure of Kurt Capewell leaves an edge back row spot at the Broncos. Piakura is tipped to take it and he’s therefore the 17th most popular player in SuperCoach. But is there really room for improvement? Piakura averaged 57 minutes last season, which is already considerable, while there is talk Pat Carrigan will drift wider at times to spell Piakura in 2024.

It would certainly be a huge ask for Piakura, who has just 15 games of NRL experience, to step straight up to Capewell’s average of 76 minutes, which is what SuperCoaches need to ensure decent price rises. With so many great mid-range options at 2RF (Viliame Kikau, Beau Fermor, Josh Curran, Shaun Lane etc), Piakura is not a risk I’m willing to take unless we get solid mail he’s set for 80 minutes.

Tom Flegler has joined the Dolphins. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

Thomas Flegler - FRF, Broncos, $475,600 - Flegler has left the Broncos for the Dolphins and therefore attracted plenty of interest at 21 per cent ownership. However, Flegler already played decent game time at the Broncos last year (44 minutes) so to make the purchase worthwhile he’d need to up that to around 60 minutes at the Dolphins.

It’s hard to see that happening in a pack including the Bromwich brothers and Tom Gilbert. With only five tries over his NRL career, the improvement won’t come from attacking stats.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck - CTW, $539,600 - At 16 per cent ownership, SuperCoaches are buying on name and not output. RTS averaged 62 over his last five seasons in the NRL, almost solely at fullback where he’d make 20 runs a game.

This year he is priced at an average of around 53, which equates to a discount of approximately $100,000. But that’s nowhere near enough given RTS has been out of the game for two years and will switch to centre, where his base stats will be significantly down.

HAVING SECOND THOUGHTS ...

I’m not completely ruling out these guys. In fact, I own three of them. But there are some serious arguments against.

Kayal Iro - CTW/FLB, Sharks, $219,900 - Currently the fourth most popular player at a massive 40.4 per cent ownership. However, the former NSW Cup Player of the Year needs plenty to fall his way just to play round one. Specifically, he needs Siosifa Talakai to switch to the back row or bench, which would be a big call on a former Origin player.

Failing that, he needs at least one injury in a relatively settled backline. And even if that injury were to eventuate, Kade Dykes could be the player to step up given his ability to play just about every position in the backline. There’s plenty of water to go under the bridge here but Iro is likely more of a mid-season purchase.

Ryan Papenhuyzen is aiming to return from serious injury.

Ryan Papenhuyzen - FLB, Storm, $645,600 - First the good. Pap comes in at a discount of around $300,000 on his price of 2022 and is therefore extremely popular. That year he produced one of the great SuperCoach seasons in averaging 90. But there are plenty of question marks this time around. Will he play round one? Are his injury woes behind him? Have the injuries taken away his main weapon – pace?

With Nick Meaney emerging as a more than serviceable goalkicker, will Papenhuyzen take the kicking duties (that’s a 10-14 points per game question)? With so many question marks, and so many great buys available in a stacked fullback position, is it worth taking Pap on and going the anti-POD? I’m leaning that way.

Jayden Brailey - HOK, Knights, $330,000 - The third most popular player in SuperCoach and it’s easy to see why when looking merely at the numbers. Brailey averaged 58, 59 and 58 in his last three seasons before last year’s ACL injury. However he begins 2024 priced around 25 points per game – or $260,000 – under that. Money for jam, right?

Well, maybe, but there are serious drawbacks. Phoenix Crossland excelled as Brailey’s replacement last season and surely earns himself at least some game time, meaning Brailey won’t play 80 minutes any more.

Brailey is still value if he plays 60 minutes, but anything under that won’t lead to much cash generation at all. Further, there may even be better buys in the price range with Parramatta coach Brad Arthur on the record saying he wants an 80 minute hooker. Both his hooking candidates sit at a very similar price to Brailey in Brandan Hands ($342,300) and Joey Lussick ($313,700).

Originally published as Entering the NRL SuperCoach No Go Zone: Biggest mistakes of 2024