Stats reveal NSW weaknesses that still remain for State of Origin

THE Blues are blooding 11 debutants in a bid to grab back Origin glory, but two of the biggest culprits from last season’s Game Three loss are back for more punishment.

NSW's Boyd Cordner after NSW loss during Game 3 of the State of Origin series between the NSW Blues and QLD Maroons at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Picture: Brett Costello

STATISTICS from Game Three last year underline why the Blues have axed the players they have and where the 2017 State of Origin series was lost.

Queensland’s 22-6 triumph in the series decider at Suncorp Stadium owed much to their tiny missed tackle count of 11, compared with NSW’s 32, with debutant Cameron Munster and fullback Billy Slater making five tackle busts each in the match, and work-hungry winger Dane Gagai four.

NSW captain Boyd Cordner missed five tackles and five-eighth James Maloney four.

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Cordner’s left-edge channel is certain to be explored by the Maroons at the MCG next week, with their rookie Felise Kaufusi notably exposing the Cowboys in that section of the field in the biggest game of his life, the 2017 grand final.

In his three games for the Blues last year, fullback James Tedesco made 18 tackle busts and four line breaks for an average of 174 run metres. As a team, NSW made only 29 tackle busts for the three games, with Tyson Frizell and Maloney next best after Tedesco with four each.

NSW captain Boyd Cordner was exposed in defence during Game Three last year. Picture: Brett Costello

Queensland totalled 62 tackle busts in the 2017 series, a massive statement about their attack and NSW’s occasional loose defence. Gagai made 20 tackle busts alone.

Blues coach Brad Fittler said his NSW team “picked themselves’’ on form, but he’s talked enough about Origin football on Channel 9 — gee, how he can talk when he has to — that we can be sure he wanted to rid his side of players he felt could not be part of a winning outfit.

In Game Three, Laurie Daley was not well served by two forwards who have been axed by Fittler, namely Josh Jackson, who made 39m from seven runs in 38 minutes, and Andrew Fifita, who gained 54m from nine runs in 38 minutes, a big climbdown from his Game One exploits in a victorious side.

Billy Slater led Queensland with five tackle busts during Game Three last year. Picture: AAP Image/Dan Peled

Aaron Woods, shown the door this week after 14 Origin games, did his bit for the beaten Blues with 110m from 11 runs in 37 minutes. Blues backrower Frizell, a starter next Wednesday night, will need to do better than his 55m output from 47 minutes. Cordner, David Klemmer and Jake Trbojevic had more than respectable numbers in that match.

Queensland’s statistics from Game Three last year back up the retention of Gavin Cooper on their right edge and Josh McGuire, despite him missing recent club action.

McGuire has been reliable in his Origin career and made 34 tackles, as well as 125 run metres, in his 63-minute hand in last year’s series decider.

Cooper played 80 minutes in that encounter and his 37 tackles was one short of the team-best (by the now-injured Matt Gillett), as well as churning out 98m.

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THERE is a red flag for the Maroons coaches from the Fox Sports Stats survey of the past four NRL rounds.

David Klemmer, a strong Origin conveyance, has led the NRL in the past four weeks for run metres by a forward, with 181 run metres per game.

David Klemmer has led the NRL in metres made during the last four rounds. Picture: Brett Costello

Of the top 10 in the category over four weeks, the only other Origin forward to appear is Jake Trbojevic, with 153m.

This season Origin playmakers James Maloney and Ben Hunt top the rankings for kicks forcing a line drop this year with six each.

Hunt’s short kicking game has been a source of big improvement this year and now has its ultimate test from a posse of Origin marker chasers.

Recent Origin history says the Blues need to start well on Wednesday night.

Fox Sports Stats say NSW sides have been behind at halftime in 13 of the past 20 Origin matches and won only three of those.

Originally published as Stats reveal NSW weaknesses that still remain for State of Origin