State of Origin 2018: We select NSW Blues team for Origin I — based on NRL statistics
NSW coach Brad Fittler says reputation counts for nothing for Origin selection. So The Daily Telegraph has crunched the numbers to reveal what the Blues side should be for Origin I.
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NSW coach Brad Fittler says he will pick his team for game one of the 2018 State of Origin series on form.
According to the league legend, reputation counts for nothing.
So The Daily Telegraph has crunched the numbers with the help of the Fox Sports Lab to reveal what the Blues side should be based on key statistics for each position.
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Blake Ferguson, James Maloney, David Klemmer, Tyson Frizell, Jake Trbojevic and Boyd Cordner are the only incumbents that would make the cut.
At the back, Sea Eagles fullback Tom Trbojevic edges out current No.1 James Tedesco.
While Tedesco has averaged 43 metres a game more than his counterpart, Trbojevic’s ball playing gives him the upper hand.
The Mona Vale Raiders junior has eight more linebreak assists and three more try assists than Tedesco.
Manly’s form in May heading into the series opener could prove make or break for Trbojevic, given the Sea Eagles have three straight games away from home against Brisbane, Melbourne and Canberra.
Ferguson has had his detractors but he can’t be denied on form in 2018.
A self-imposed booze ban is paying dividends and he currently leads the competition for metres gained — averaging a staggering 191 metres a game.
Remarkably, he’s run for more than 200 metres in five games so far this year, including 267 metres in round one against the Wests Tigers.
Raiders young gun Nick Cotric gets the nod ahead of the Storm’s Josh Addo-Carr on the left edge.
The flashy finisher has crossed the line six more times than Cotric so far this year but Cotric’s explosive running and ability to get his side out of trouble sets him apart.
The reigning Dally M Rookie of the Year averages almost six tackle busts a game and has already made five linebreaks.
Euan Aitken rocketed into contention after his performance against South Sydney in round five — where he stood up Greg Inglis to score a brilliant individual try.
And the powerful right centre has the numbers to back his selection — he’s averaging 116 metres a game, has scored five tries and made five linebreaks.
The reborn Luke Brooks has been the most consistent playmaker outside of Penrith’s James Maloney.
The Tigers halfback will test Fittler’s commitment to his form over reputation ethos.
The 23-year old has finally stepped up to the plate, showing he has the ability and maturity to lead a football team around the park.
His kicking has also been in fine touch to start the season and he has forced 11 drops out so far.
If the stats are anything to go by then NSW are in for a shake-up in their engine room.
Klemmer has copped some heat on the back of Canterbury’s poor start to the season but the numbers show the incumbent deserves to keep his spot.
He’s averaged 165 metres a game, which is 36 metres more than his nearest rival, Dragons big man Paul Vaughan.
Trent Merrin hasn’t played Origin since 2015, but the fit and firing 28-year old is leading a young pack at Penrith with experience and aggression and it’s showing in his stats.
He’s clocking up over 100 metres a game, has made two line breaks, created two-line break assists and set-up one try.
Blues skipper Boyd Cordner and Josh Jackson lose out to Angus Crichton and Tariq Sims.
While the Bulldogs captain misses out completely, Cordner is relegated to the bench.
Crichton has long been billed as perfect for Origin and If Fittler were to pick his side today, he’d have no choice but to go with the durable South Sydney backrower.
Jack de Belin sits on the bottom of the pack in terms of metres made but his impact across other facets of the game cannot be denied.
The Red V hard-hitter is stamping his authority in defence and playing with kind of mongrel needed to succeed in the Origin arena.
The same can be said for his teammate Tariq Sims, who’s aggression nullified the influence of Roosters halfback Cooper Cronk in the Anzac Day clash last week.
Originally published as State of Origin 2018: We select NSW Blues team for Origin I — based on NRL statistics
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