State of Origin: The NSW star Queensland must stop in series opener

The cliche says halfbacks are the ones who normally own the result in rugby league. But in next week’s State of Origin opener in Adelaide, the one player Queensland must stop is a front-rower.

Payne Haas leads the way upfront for the Blues. Picture: Getty Images

The largest group chat in Australia, at least in terms of kilograms per capita, has gone quiet this week. Payne Haas, Pat Carrigan and Tevita Pangai Junior have been bouncing ideas off each other for years.

Discussing the finer points of front row play. Picking apart opposition. Debating the strengths and weaknesses of their front row cohort. Critiquing each other’s games and offering words of encouragement when they have been deemed necessary.

Not this week though. Not next week either, we’re guessing. The good mates are about to go hammer and tong in the opening game of the State of Origin series and the winner of their personal duel may determine the outcome of the series.

You know how it goes. Mate against mate, state against state. No-one takes it more personally than the big boppers in the middle of the field.

For Haas, it could be a defining series. You could mount a compelling argument that the big Brisbane Bronco is the most important player in a sky blue jersey heading into Origin I.

Payne Haas shapes as NSW’s most valuable player. Picture: Getty Images

The result, they say, normally resides in the hands of the halfback but as good as Nathan Cleary is, Haas is the one who is redefining his position. News that he had left training early on Friday and watched with ice on his ankle would have been wildly celebrated in the Queensland camp.

The Blues monolith is averaging a tad under 60 minutes a game. He is hurtling for close to 200 metres in each outing. He is breaking tackles for fun and turning himself into an offloading machine — he has as many offloads this year as he had in the entire 2020 season, when he peaked at 25.

Perhaps the most eye-catching statistic relates to his play when he doesn’t have the ball, a phase of the game where Haas doesn’t often receive praise. According to the NRL website, Haas’ defensive efficiency stands at a stunning 98.4 per cent this year.

In 12 games, he has had more than 300 tackles and missed only five. Big men usually become vulnerable when fatigue sets in, but Haas seems impervious to the tyranny of time.

He is only 23 but he is well on his way to becoming the greatest front rower in the game’s history. Perhaps the only thing that can stop him is the lure of big money in French and Australian rugby union, although he made it clear this week that his priority was to win a premiership with the Broncos.

That would have been music to the ears of the Broncos given the recent turbulence around his future. Haas remains locked in a court battle with his former management, who negotiated an unsigned deal worth close to $6 million with Brisbane before their relationship fell apart.

That deal, which was left on the table, now looks like a bargain and Haas’ decision not to take it up may prove a masterstroke as he targets a contract that will catapult him among the highest earners in rugby league.

Payne Haas seems impervious to the tyranny of time. Picture: Getty Images

It’s the sort of money normally reserved for players in a rugby league spine, but Haas is worth every cent and if he hits the market on November 1, expect a bidding frenzy to ensue, driving up a price tag that is already expected to be measured in seven figures.

Million-dollar front-rowers are rare as hen’s teeth, but Haas will be worth that and more when he eventually settles his future, be it at Brisbane or with another NRL club. The Bulldogs are believed to be monitoring his contract negotiations with the Broncos closely.

Before then, Haas has an Origin series to win. Expect the talk nearer to the game focus on Cleary and his ability to own Origin but it starts with Haas. If he does his job and dominates Carrigan and co, NSW will have one hand on the Origin shield.

It’s pretty simple, if Queensland can’t stop Haas, they won’t stop NSW. The Blues will jump on his shoulders and the likes of Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell will run amok.

MAROONS TO LIVE AND DIE BY BOLD CALLS

Queensland State of Origin coach Billy Slater. Picture: Getty Images

Billy Slater’s first year as Queensland coach couldn’t have gone any better. A series win brought with it lashings of praise and a sense that the Maroons were on the cusp of a fresh dynasty under one of the sharpest minds in the game.

His second series could be more problematic, particularly if things go pear-shaped in Adelaide. Queensland will live or die on two huge decisions made by Slater in the lead-up to Origin I.

The axing of Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai came from left field, particularly given the loyal service the pair have provided to the maroon jersey over the years.

The axing of Dane Gagai and Kalyn Ponga from the Maroons team was a shock.

Ponga you can somewhat understand. His ongoing issue with head knocks made him a risky selection and with Reece Walsh flying for the Broncos, Slater erred on the side of caution.

Gagai was harder to grasp.

Sure, he was coming off a poor performance for Newcastle but Gagai has been a giant for the Maroons, always rising to the occasion in the Origin arena.

Slater left himself open to accusations of disloyalty by dumping Gagai, if not from Queensland, than certainly from sections of the NSW media.

The result in Adelaide will dictate what happens next. Should the Gagai axing backfire, Slater will face a barrage from NSW, much like Brad Fittler did last year when he dumped Josh Addo-Carr and Jake Trbojevic.

It was a blunder that ultimately contributed to the Blues’ series defeat 12 months ago. Origin is often decided by fine margins. You simply can’t afford to get it wrong in the selection room.

Originally published as State of Origin: The NSW star Queensland must stop in series opener