Paul Kent’s finals formguide: The most important factor in finding a winner in NRL premiership race

From Ricky Stuart to Andrew Johns, Darren Lockyer and Greg Bird, history is littered with absentees that can mean the difference between winning and losing a premiership, says PAUL KENT.

Nathan Cleary is vital to Penrith’s hopes in the finals. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

As everyone knows, the simplest and most accurate way to select the NRL champions in any particular season is to take a look inside the casualty ward at the N*R*L 4077th and mark down the teams taking up all the beds.

Whichever team occupies the fewest beds, well, there’s your grand final winner.

Come this time of year, healthy rosters are the biggest form guide anybody can follow to predict the eventual premiers, to say nothing of appearing like they actually know something about this game, which can often save face after a poor mid-season showing in the office tipping comp.

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Injuries and suspension have as big a bearing on a team’s success as star factor and a flexible salary cap. The inflexible truth, though, is one injury to the roster can just about be sustained.

Two is just about fatal.

Nathan Cleary has the Panthers humming heading into the finals.

Injuries and suspension not only begin to question a team’s depth, they interfere with their cohesion which, the smart ones will tell you, can be equally as debilitating.

Three years ago the Sydney Roosters acknowledged the validity of the science by refusing to allow halfback Cooper Cronk to withdraw with injury even though Cronk cracked in half his shoulder blade a week earlier.

The game became a virtual cat-and mouse chase, as every time the Storm had the ball Cameron Smith looked up from dummy-half and Cronk would offer him a glimpse of where he was standing in the defensive line and Smith would call the plays accordingly.

Once Smith’s head went down to pick up the ball, though, Cronk would scoot to another part of the field and Smith found himself directing traffic at solid, but fully healthy, defenders.

Cronk was then able to run the Roosters’ attack all the way to victory.

It has not always turned out this well.

Cooper Cronk and the Roosters outsmarted the Storm in the 2018 grand final. Picture: Brett Costello

In 2011, the Broncos were having a solid shot at the premiership when the ball went high in the air and as it came down fate got involved, as it can have a bad habit of doing, and Darren Lockyer collided with teammate Gerard Beale and broke his cheekbone.

There was a lot of talk about Lockyer playing with a face mask to protect his face the following week in the preliminary final but, ultimately, Lockyer failed to make the field and the Broncos went down 26-14 to eventual premiers Manly.

Cronulla was in superb shape in 2008 to make a premiership run, right up until Greg Bird had an altercation with his then girlfriend and was stood down for the season. Once Brett Seymour did his knee in a warm-up before the preliminary final the Sharks were properly cooked.

That same season a grapple tackle cost Cameron Smith a grand final appearance and the Storm, the minor premiers, got flogged 40-0 by Manly even though just one starting player was missing from the team, such was the toll.

Much is still made of Michael Morgan’s purple run to lead the Johnathan Thurston-less North Queensland Cowboys to the grand final in 2017 where, at the final hurdle, they failed to overcome Melbourne.

What if the Thurston-less Cowboys were not Thurston-less?

Newcastle had two seasons cut short when Andrew Johns was injured in a finals loss to the Dragons, enough to be unable to play the following week against the Roosters, who eliminated them.

The Roosters did a similar job a year later, eliminating the Knights when Johns went down, this time, with a neck injury.

Perhaps the greatest example goes all the way to 1993 when Canberra was as close to unstoppable as a team could get, losing just four games all season as they steamed towards the finals.

Then Ricky Stuart broke his leg in a meaningless 68-0 win against Parramatta in the penultimate round.

The Raiders did not win another game. They lost the final game of the season 32-8 to Canterbury surrendering the minor premiership to the Bulldogs in the process, and then went out in straight sets in the finals, with defeats to eventual grand finalists St George and Brisbane.

All that said, and computed, a quick look at the form guide for this year’s finals series presents one clear winner, with a couple more a chance at the odds.

Victor Radley will make a welcome return for the Roosters this weekend. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

The Roosters have enough injuries to claim a spell on the Western Front, with 10 guaranteed starters unavailable for the finals series.

Also, as well as the Roosters have performed, by way of reference, they have not beaten Melbourne, Penrith or Souths this season. Need a spell.

Their opponents Gold Coast are without AJ Brimson, with Kevin Proctor back and Ash Taylor also expected back for the finals. Unlikely.

Parramatta is borderline, with season ending injuries to two certain starters, Reed Mahoney and Maika Sivo, which is the limit a team can sustain. Each-way chance.

The Knights are without two potential starters, Edrick Lee and Lachlan Fitzgibbon, with a host back this week and will be close to full strength. Need luck.

Souths get several players back from suspension in the finals, Keaon Koloamatangi and Liam Knight but, worryingly, will not get back Latrell Mitchell or the injured Josh Mansour. Prefer others.

The Panthers are in great shape for the finals. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

Manly is strong from a roster point of view, with no sure starters absent beyond Manase Fainu, who has been unavailable all season. Dark horses.

Melbourne will have several sidelined on Friday but have only Max King and Brenko Lee missing for the entire finals series, making them almost full strength. Strong chance.

The team in the best shape is Penrith, which has only Scott Sorenson unavailable from its full squad and, although he is expected to be available later in the finals series, the Panthers are in such strong shape he is unlikely to be used.

It leaves the Panthers as clear favourites for the title, and best bet of the day.

You can take that to the bank.

Originally published as Paul Kent’s finals formguide: The most important factor in finding a winner in NRL premiership race