Paul Crawley Files: NRL 2022 season preview, who will rise and fall
There are plenty of big names under pressure to keep their teams at the top or lift them out of the cellar. PAUL CRAWLEY takes a look at each team’s chances of success or failure in 2022.
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A new season brings fresh expectations for fans, and new faces to hopefully boost their chances of glory, but who makes the eight and which teams are in for a struggle. PAUL CRAWLEY analyses each team’s chances of success or failure in 2022.
BRONCOS
Last year’s finish: 14th
This year’s pass mark: Top eight
Premiership odds: $26
Crawley says: There was a time when the Broncos went into every season expecting to win the premiership. Right now even their most loyal fans would be thinking if they make the top eight it will be a minor miracle after what they dished up in that final warm-up against the Cowboys. Nevertheless, this is Kevvie Walters’ second season since taking over from Anthony Seibold and anything short of playing finals will be a fail.
Key man: Adam Reynolds is a proven top four halfback who provides great leadership and direction for what is an exciting young backline that features what I rate a red-hot centre combination of Kotoni Staggs and Herbie Farnworth, and I just can’t wait to see what the future holds for young Selwyn Cobbo.
Unsung heroes: In a side that has been bashed from pillar to post in recent years, Payne Haas just continues to get better and better. Now the arrival of Kurt Capewell and Ryan James adds some much needed experience, while Pat Carrigan’s return from injury will also make a huge difference.
RAIDERS
Last year’s finish: 10th
This year’s pass mark: Competing for top eight
Premiership odds: $26
Crawley says: Before Jamal Fogarty’s unlucky preseason injury I had the Raiders in my top eight. I just think losing the bloke specifically brought in to be the key playmaker and take pressure off Jack Wighton on the eve of the season is a massive setback. In saying that, if young Brad Schneider can just do his job and Josh Hodgson gets back to his best the Raiders could end up being one of the season’s big improvers.
Key man: I got a sense in that trial against Manly that Wighton is primed for a big season. When he pins his ears back and takes on the line he is as dangerous as the best of them. He just needs to look in the mirror and remind himself how good he is every week before he runs out.
Unsung heroes: Joey Tapine showed in the All Stars want an outstanding player he is and his front row combination with big Josh Papalii can be as good as any in the game. The Raiders forwards don’t get generate a lot of talk like some of the other heavyweight packs but they are a seriously tough and experienced with great depth.
BULLDOGS
Last year’s finish: 16th
This year’s pass mark: Competing for top eight
Premiership odds: $26
Crawley says: I know they’re coming off a wooden spoon but even so, what the Bulldogs dished up against the Sharks in that final trial was disturbing. The lack of discipline, the lack of combinations, it made you wonder what they’d been doing all summer. If they get it right they have the strike power to trouble some of those teams fighting for the bottom spots in the top weight. I just worry their tough draw to start the season might shatter all their confidence.
Key man: Matt Burton is going to be a hell of a player but it would have been great to have seen him given the chance to develop alongside a seasoned playmaker. That’s not a knock on Jake Averillo either because he is also a fine young player but together the two of them have been well and truly thrown into the deep end here.
Unsung heroes: Josh Jackson is one of the most whole-hearted players in the game. You just hope the rest of the Bulldogs forward pack roll up their sleeves and dig as deep every week, because talent is not the issue for blokes like Paul Vaughan, Tevita Pangai and Jack Hetherington.
SHARKS
Last year’s finish: 9th
This year’s pass mark: Top eight
Premiership odds: $21
Crawley says: This has the makings of a really good footy team. They have exceptional outside backs, a potentially really good combination of Matt Moylan and Nicho Hynes in the halves, and a tough pack that is only going to get better as the season rolls on and the influence of men like Craig Fitzgibbon, Dale Finucane and Cameron McInnes takes effect.
Key man: Hynes just seems to be one of those guys who takes everything in his stride. Sometimes young players who get a huge jump in salary forget that’s when the hard work should start. But this bloke looks as though he not only has the talent but the temperament to handle the extra attention he’s going to get living back in Sydney.
Unsung heroes: Hynes will be the bloke who pulls the strings but the fact Fitzgibbon wasted no time appointing Finucane as stand-in captain in Wade Graham’s injury absence shows what the new coach wants from the former Storm hardman.
TITANS
Last year’s finish: 8th
This year’s pass mark: Competing for top eight
Premiership odds: $23
Crawley says: Another of the teams who will have ambitions of finishing in the eight. But I just worry if it might be a case of one step forward and two steps back for a team with the NRL’s least experienced spine. Factor in fullback Jayden Campbell has played only seven NRL games, halfback Toby Sexton just four and dummy half Erin Clark 30, while AJ Brimson is now five-eighth after his switch from fullback.
Key man: With Jamal Fogarty gone, Sexton is now the chief playmaker with less than a handful of NRL games of experience and he only turned 21 on March 1. No doubt he has a real calmness about the way he plays but this is an extremely steep learning curve.
Unsung heroes: I love the Titans pack and especially the blokes like Moe Fotuaika, Isaac Liu and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui who are holding up the middle. Liu will become a Titans crowd favourite and they will soon see why he was held in such high regard by Trent Robinson at the Roosters. The bloke is all about work ethic.
SEA EAGLES
Last year’s finish: 4th
This year’s pass mark: Top four
Premiership odds: $9
Crawley says: Des Hasler is too good a coach not to find a way to fix what we all see. That is coming up with a plan to take some of the pressure off Tom Trbojevic this year so it doesn’t become another case that if you shut Turbo down you kill off Manly. There is just so much strike in this backline and the halves combination of Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran has the experience and class to execute whatever plan the mad scientist has come up with over the summer.
Key man: The stats say it all. In the past two years the Sea Eagles have won 68 per cent of games Tom Trbojevic plays in (17 of 25) and only 32 per cent of games when Turbo is not playing (seven of 22). There is not a player at any team who is relied on more heavily, not even Nathan Cleary.
Unsung heroes: His work sometimes gets lost in his brother’s giant shadow but make no mistake Jake Trbojevic is the heart and soul of this team. What he offers with and without the ball might not be as dazzling as Tom but it still makes him one of the competition’s most inspirational and valuable middle forwards.
STORM
Last year’s finish: 1st (Minor premiers)
This year’s pass mark: Grand final
Premiership odds: $5.50
Crawley says: The benchmark of the comp year after year, but you can bet the Storm will be extra motivated this year given way they blew that prelim final against Penrith. For that reason alone I will be shocked if key players like Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Brandon Smith aren’t absolutely primed when it matters this year heading into the finals. From what we’ve seen so far in the trials Xavier Coates, Josh King, Nick Meaney and Tyran Wishart all look great additions.
Key man: The hype around Ryan Papenhuyzen has almost been non-existent leading into this season. But I go back to the form Papenhuyzen was in before he got wiped out during Magic Round when judging who I think will be the key man for the Storm this year. Towards the end of last year he was getting back to close to his best, but a full off-season is only going to make Papenhuyzen better still.
Unsung heroes: In a team where Papenhuyzen, Munster, Grant and Brandon Smith hog a lot of the spotlight, Jahrome Hughes is such an underrated player. He was again the standout in the last trial against the Knights and looks ready for another big season.
KNIGHTS
Last year’s finish: 7th
This year’s pass mark: Top six
Premiership odds: $29
Crawley says: It might sound an unfair expectation to say the Knights should be aiming for a top six finish. But they did finish seventh last year and you don’t set out to go backwards. In saying that they had no choice but to let Mitchell Pearce go and rotten luck has again sidelined Jayden Brailey. They still have a gun pack, terrific outside backs and their skipper is one of the game’s best players (when Kalyn Ponga puts his mind to it).
Key man: Make no mistake, this is a huge year for Ponga to prove he is a player worth the million-dollar price tag his extraordinary talent commands. He has such a young spine around him in Chris Randall, Adam Clune and Jake Clifford, Ponga just has to find a way to lead by his actions every week, but especially against the heavyweight teams.
Unsung heroes: It doesn’t matter what position Kurt Mann plays he just goes out and gives it everything. But I really think taking over at No 13 jumper this year really gives a player who has spent his career as a Mr Fix It the chance to finally nail down his perfect position.
COWBOYS
Last year’s finish: 15th
This year’s pass mark: 14th or better
Premiership odds: $67
Crawley says: Now Cowboys fans don’t take this the wrong way, but of our 13 NRL journos recently asked for their season predications, eight tipped the Cowboys to run last. But from what we saw in the trial against the Broncos the Cowboys have it in them to shock a few people this year. I’m really looking forward to seeing how Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow develops at fullback.
Key man: I don’t know what went wrong with Jason Taumalolo last year. But when I heard assistant coach Dean Young recently talking up the fact Taumalolo was going to be playing big minutes this year I put the big fella straight back in my SuperCoach team. Two years ago Taumalolo was on his way to being one of the all-time greats. He’s still only 28.
Unsung heroes: In what was a forgettable year for the Cowboys in 2021, Coen Hess was one bloke who could hold his head high. The way he responded to the challenge Todd Payten put to him when moving Hess from the edge to the middle ultimately saw him judged the team’s player of the year. Again, in footy years, Hess is still relatively young (only 25), so his best years should still be ahead of him.
EELS
Last year’s finish: 6th
This year’s pass mark: Prelim final
Premiership odds: $13
Crawley says: It will not surprise me one bit to see the Eels playing in the grand final given the way they finished last season. Just when we were ready to write them off they found a toughness and resilience we hadn’t seen from this team before. I know at some point the conversation will revert back to the fact Brad Arthur still hasn’t taken them past week two of the finals. But I reckon the way they bowed out against Penrith was not a sign of defeat, it was a significant step in the right direction.
Key man: You could name any number here as the Eels’ key man, whether it be Gutherson, Moses, Mahoney or Paulo. But for mine it’s the tough little hooker who will be having his final season for Parra before Mahoney heads to the Bulldogs. It showed last year when he was injured Mahoney is the one player this Parramatta team can’t live without.
Unsung heroes: Not too many players give more for their team than Clint Gutherson. I still remember when he was first thrown into the captaincy role the Eels were a club going through hell. Now they are a fair dinkum threat to finally end that premiership drought, and if they get there no one would deserve it more.
PANTHERS
Last year’s finish: 2nd (Premiers)
This year’s pass mark: Top four
Premiership odds: $5
Crawley says: I liked what Jarome Luai said this week when asked about the challenge of winning back-to-back titles. Luai put it this way, saying “we want to be hunters if that makes sense … we don’t want to really be classed as the hunted”. That’s a great attitude. Still, while the bookies have them as favourites, history is against them, so is the fact they’ve lost Matt Burton, Kurt Capewell and Paul Momirovski.
Key man: This is Nathan Cleary’s chance to do what Andrew Johns, Johnathan Thurston and Cameron Smith never did (go back-to-back). But Cleary’s fitness will be crucial given over the past two years the Panthers have won 92 per cent of games when he played, but only 60 per cent when he doesn’t.
Unsung heroes: I still don’t think many fans other than the Panthers diehards would remember Dylan Edwards played the grand final with a broken foot. Not only played but was one of the best. In a team blessed with exceptional talent this bloke is so underrated, but so valuable.
RABBITOHS
Last year’s finish: 3rd (Grand finalists)
This year’s pass mark: Top four
Premiership odds: $10
Crawley says: Jason Demetriou has sure been handed one enormous challenge taking over from Wayne Bennett while losing his gun halfback and beloved skipper (and replacing him with a one game rookie in Lachlan Ilias). I also question if Jaxson Paulo is ready to star at left centre in Dane Gagai’s absence. Although if Latrell Mitchell stays fit and not suspended he will make a massive difference.
Key man: With Reynolds gone the pressure on Cody Walker goes up another notch. Walker was outstanding last year and despite that intercept pass tried his guts out in the grand final. But no one will miss Reynolds more.
Unsung heroes: The Souths pack get very little recognition but have a wonderful mix of youth and experience, and a new captain that is as courageous and talented as any forward in the game. The other thing Cameron Murray also has is a cool head which will be very important in a playing group where Latrell and Cody lead the way with passion and emotion.
DRAGONS
Last year’s finish: 11th
This year’s pass mark: Competing for top eight
Premiership odds: $41
Crawley says: I just can’t understand what the bookies have against the Dragons. They keep telling us they are one of the favourites for most losses, yet the way they played against last year’s grand finalists in the Charity Shield didn’t suggest that. Tyrell Sloan looks an unbelievable talent, and how fit and strong did Zac Lomax look in Mudgee? Ben Hunt also looks primed for a big year, and they just have so much depth and experience in the forwards.
Key man: Hunt has copped it ever since he arrived at the Dragons and mostly because of the huge money the club signed him on. But he has proven time and again when he is playing in a quality team he is a fantastic footballer. There’s simply not a more valuable player at the Dragons, not just because of his salary.
Unsung heroes: When Anthony Griffin made the call that he wanted Andrew McCullough as his dummy half going forward because he could basically get him for half the price it would have taken to keep Cameron McInnes, there was a massive blow up. But McCullough just continues to be such a solid player and great value for money.
ROOSTERS
Last year’s finish: 5th
This year’s pass mark: Grand final
Premiership odds: $6
Crawley says: They had everything go against them last year but just kept fighting to the death. Now they get Luke Keary back with Teddy, Joey Manu and Victor Radley all fit and ready to go. Throw in Lindsay Collins up front and it is easy to see why Roosters fans are so excited.
Key man: I think last year showed why they can’t win the comp without Keary. He’ll also take enormous pressure off young Sam Walker, while his premiership-winning combination with Radley and Tedesco will terrorise opposition teams.
Unsung heroes: Big Jared Waerea-Hargreaves carried the Roosters pack last year on his back and you can bet he will be there to do the same this year. Now 33, he is undoubtedly up with the great front rowers of not just the modern game, but all-time.
WARRIORS
Last year’s finish: 12th
This year’s pass mark: Competing for top eight
Premiership odds: $41
Crawley says: Roger-Tuivasa-Sheck’s exit is as big a loss as any team suffered. Shaun Johnson will make a difference, and they have a good pack and some exciting young backs (with Reece Walsh the standout). But even allowing for obvious talent, it will shock me if the Warriors even get close to top eight.
Key man: It’s amazing that the Warriors wanted Johnson back given how he was unceremoniously sent packing a few years back. But he now gets the chance to be that player the Warriors wanted from him previously.
Unsung heroes: The Warriors’ will be counting down the days to Tohu Harris returns from his knee injury about mid-season. In his absence they are going to need to likes of Addin Fonua-Blake and Matt Lodge to take up the slack.
TIGERS
Last year’s finish: 13th
This year’s pass mark: Better than 13th
Premiership odds: $67
Crawley says: The TAB has them as $3.50 wooden spoon favourites, so the expectations have to be realistic. If the Tigers can improve on where they finished last year they will be on the right track. They’ve recruited reasonably well with Jackson Hastings, Tyrone Peachey and the Englishman Oliver Gildart three who can make a difference. But in the wake of their horrible 38-0 final round loss to the Bulldogs, attitude is the biggest thing that needs to change.
Key man: Luke Brooks showed what he is capable of when he was the Dally M halfback of the year in 2018. I just hope the club doesn’t regret not letting him trying and get a fresh start in Newcastle. This year Hastings will take some of the pressure off him while Adam Doueihi is sidelined.
Unsung heroes: Daine Laurie, Luciano Leilua and Stefano Utoikamanu were three who gave it their all last year along with Doueihi and Jacob Liddle (also now sidelined with a knee injury). But having Tim Sheens back could be the key to taking the Tigers to the next level.
10 BIGGEST TALKING POINTS FOR 2022
1: Are Panthers good enough to go back-to-back?
They kick-off as the TAB’s $5 premiership favourites, paying just $2.60 to make the grand final and $4.50 for the minor premiership. But you only need to look back over the years to realise the enormous challenge ahead of the Panthers. The Sydney Roosters are the only side of the NRL era to win consecutive premierships (2018-19). Prior to that, you go all the way back to the Brisbane Broncos in 1992-93 (the Broncos also claimed consecutive titles 1997-98 but ’97 was in the split Super League comp). There’s no doubt Ivan Cleary has a more than capable squad, especially if Nathan stays fit. But they have lost Matt Burton, Kurt Capewell, Paul Momirovski and Tyrone May from last year’s grand final squad.
2: Can anyone stop Turbo claiming a double Dally M?
Tom Trbojevic’s 2021 was arguably the greatest individual season by a player in the game’s history. And the scary thing to remember is Trbojevic won the Dally M Medal last year, despite only playing 15 regular season games that included a phenomenal 25 tries, 30 try assists and 29 line breaks. So just imagine if he can stay injury-free. Though the competition for the game’s top individual honour looks fierce with Nathan Cleary, James Tedesco, Nicho Hynes, Daly Cherry-Evans, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes, Cody Walker, Luke Keary, Jack Wighton, Ben Hunt and Latrell Mitchell all likely to figure prominently on the leaderboard at some point.
3: Who will be rookie of the year?
It was a red-hot rookie class in 2021 with Sam Walker claiming the top prize in a field that also included Reece Walsh, Daine Laurie, Josh Schuster and Stefano Utoikamanu. This is always the great unknown but the names jumping out of the pack right now are Xavier Savage, Lachlan Ilias, Ezra Mam, Tolu Koula, Paul Alamoti, Jeremiah Nanai, Jack Howarth and Sean Russell. It’s one of the real highlights every year watching a new generation of young stars explode.
4: Will Rabbitohs fire or flop?
It won’t come as a great shock the Rabbitohs have been the best backed to drop out of the top four given history shows every time Wayne Bennett has left a club previously they have fallen off a cliff (except the Raiders in Bennett’s early years). Now throw in the fact the Bunnies have also lost their much-loved skipper Adam Reynolds along with the hugely under-rated Dane Gagai and Jaydn Su’a. In rookie coach Jason Demetriou’s favour is he’s had an outstanding apprenticeship and also worked side-by-side with Bennett for several years, so he already has the respect of this playing group. Another major plus is that he gets back a highly motivated Latrell Mitchell in round two who has everything to prove after being rubbed out of last year’s finals series.
5: Can Adam Reynolds give life to a former powerhouse?
Watching the Broncos get lapped by the Cowboys in their final trial must have been a huge concern for everyone involved. Yes, of course it’s only a trial. But it’s not as if the experts are ranking the Cowboys up with the premiership heavyweights either. The one major positive for Brisbane fans was that Adam Reynolds didn’t play, because there is just no doubt the veteran halfback will give them direction and provide outstanding leadership when he takes the field. But make no mistake, Reynolds’ ongoing fitness will be the ongoing storyline this year because he will have to play the majority of the regular season games if the Broncos are to have any chance of fighting their way back into the top eight.
6: Is this the team to end Parra’s premiership drought?
There was not a more impressive trial performance than what Parramatta turned on against the premiers. No doubt the Panthers had five of their best sidelined but it was still impossible not to be blown away by how switched on and in sync the Eels looked. From Mitchell Moses’ composure to Dylan Brown taking the line on. Gutherson was also in great touch, and how good does young Will Penisini look? Up front, Junior Paulo was an absolute beast, while Reed Mahoney hit the ground running in his return. I maintain if Mahoney played that semi-final against the Panthers last year the Eels would have won the game. It counts for nothing now, expect it gives added motivation with Parra’s premiership window banging in the wind. With Mahoney, Isaiah Papali’i and Marata Nuikore all leaving at the end of the season, it might be a case of now or never for this generation of Eels.
7: Will Queensland’s ‘three wise men’ produce an Origin miracle?
Billy Slater has put the band back together with Cameron Smith and Johnathan Thurston joining Queensland’s coaching staff. Now the job for the Maroons’ three wise men is to come up with a plan to stop what many rate the greatest NSW team in Origin history. It’s going to be fascinating to watch the coaching styles every bit as much as the likes of James Tedesco, Tom Trbojevic, Latrell Mitchell, Nathan Cleary and Damien Cook going head-to-head with Cameron Munster, Daly Cherry-Evans, Kalyn Ponga, Harry Grant and Ben Hunt.
8: Will generation next reignite the Red V?
St George Illawarra’s management made a brave but daring call extending Anthony Griffin’s contract before the season even kicked off. But judging what we saw from the Dragons in the Charity Shield this could be a defining move if it allows everyone to focus on the real job at hand, creating the right environment to allow what looks to be an exceptional crop of youngsters to prosper. Tyrell Sloan, Cody Ramsey, Zac Lomax, the Feagai twins and Tom Amone all look to have bright futures. Griffin has also put together some real experience and depth in the forwards, and how good did Ben Hunt look against the Rabbitohs in Mudgee? It was enough to get the Dragons a spot in my top eight.
9: Can Burton reinvent Bulldogs?
There is no question young Matt Burton is a freakish talent, and he reminds me so much of a young Brad Fittler that I can’t wait to see how he grows as a playmaker in the years to come. Nevertheless, Burton’s about to be thrown in the deep end because the Bulldogs have the toughest draw to start to the season of any club. And if they don’t start fast against the Cowboys and Broncos their season could be over before it even gets going after they take on last year’s top four teams (Sea Eagles, Storm, Panthers and Rabbitohs) in succession. Then they play the Broncos again followed by the Roosters and Raiders. For all the hype about their off-season recruitment, I fear reality is about to bite.
10: Who will be first coach sacked?
Which leads us to the next big talking point that is sure to come up in conversation sooner rather than later, which coach will be thrown overboard first? As awful as it is to mention names you can’t ignore the obvious contenders are Todd Payten, Kevvie Walters, Michael Maguire, Trent Barrett and Adam O’Brien. In fairness, I don’t have any of their teams in my top eight. It still reckon it’s a guarantee each of these five will come under pressure at some stage this season.
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