Panthers, Dragons, Raiders, Cowboys in danger as NRL finals race heats up
FIVE teams into the final three playoff spots won’t go. The middle of the premiership ladder is jammed and has set up a fascinating run to the finals, writes MATTHEW JOHNS.
FIVE teams into the final three playoff spots won’t go.
The middle of the premiership ladder is jammed and has set up an enormously interesting run into the final round.
From Penrith in sixth down to the 10th-placed Raiders, each game has huge significance and all the teams are on a tightrope.
The Panthers have risen to eighth after a great month but are equal on points with Manly and the Cowboys. They do, however, have the edge with their for-and-against record.
Their run into September is a tough one, though. They play Canberra, St George Illawarra and Manly, who are in the same desperate fight.
Sunday’s clash against Canberra is massive. The Raiders are a dangerous team and a loss will put Penrith in a perilous situation.
Manly’s run home is good and in the next two weeks they should book their finals position.
They taking on the horrendously out-of-form Bulldogs and the Warriors, who are doing an excellent impersonation of a side not trying.
In round 26 they tackle Penrith, so a shock loss in the next fortnight would be a disaster because you don’t want to face the Panthers in that last game if they need a victory to claim a finals spot. Manly will get there.
I’m not so certain about the Cowboys, who are on a worrying slide and face a difficult next three weeks. They play premiers Cronulla, the rejuvenated Tigers and the red-hot Broncos.
Crucially, their points differential is inferior to all these sides around them.
The team breathing down their neck, the Dragons, are +99 and North Queensland are only +36.
The Cowboys look to be in trouble.
Canberra are 10th and need to beat Penrith, Newcastle and Melbourne as well as have results go their way.
Their inconsistency and numerous narrow losses will cost them a place in September football.
Which brings me to the ninth-placed Dragons, who have the Broncos, Panthers and Dogs to come.
With a good points differential, two wins from three will get them in, which makes Friday night’s game in Brisbane a blockbuster for the Red V.
Wayne Bennett knows how to time a championship run and the Broncos are looking like a Bart Cummings-trained horse turning for home on Melbourne Cup Day.
The Ben Hunt move to hooker and subsequent adjustments in the Broncos’ spine have them looking far more dangerous.
To be fair, it hasn’t been put under pressure yet.
In their past two outings, they demolished their opposition and never looked under threat.
The loss of the reliable and defensively tireless Andrew McCullough may yet be a gigantic one when they get into September and the arm-wrestle kicks in.
Brisbane are all about attack, so McCullough’s ability to secure the middle defensively hasn’t been missed.
The Dragons are an enigmatic lot. When they win, they tend to win big, but where these dominant performances come from and where they disappear to is a mystery.
Paul McGregor’s decision to move Kurt Mann into the halves last week was a brilliant one.
I remember Kurt as a talented youngster at the Knights a number of years ago. He had the ability to play in the halves or fullback.
In recent years he was viewed as an outside back, but I’ve always believed him to be best suited in the creative positions.
Kurt’s display last week had a lot of Cameron Munster about it.
Run first, pass second.
His speed and footwork created opportunity after opportunity and took pressure off chief playmaker Gareth Widdop.
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If the Dragons try to grind their way to victory at Suncorp Stadium, they will lose.
To beat the Broncos you have to attack them relentlessly.
Melbourne blew them off the park 42-12 in round 17 by playing fast, positive football.
Parramatta did the same thing in round 21 to cause an upset.
The Dragons can’t let the pressure of this contest force them into playing conservatively. To win, they must attack Brisbane hard.
Originally published as Panthers, Dragons, Raiders, Cowboys in danger as NRL finals race heats up
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