NRL finals 2017: Matthew Johns delivers his preview of the first week of the finals
MATTHEW Johns runs his eye over the NRL finals combatants, revealing the toughest game, biggest hurdles and whether the Storm can be beaten.
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MATTHEW Johns runs his eye over the finals combatants, revealing the toughest game, biggest hurdles and whether the Storm can be beaten.
ROOSTERS V BRONCOS
The crucial tactic
The Broncos are defensively vulnerable to teams who play fast, open, positive football.
In the Broncos’ good back half of the year, Melbourne and Parramatta played them in this fashion.
Melbourne beat them 42-12 in round 17, while the Eels got them 28-14 in round 21 and 52-34 in round 25.
The Roosters like to engage teams in a middle-field power battle but if they get bogged down in this, they’ll play into the Broncos’ hands.
The Broncos will again start with Sam Thaiday at hooker and play simple, high completion rate football early. You can bet after 20 minutes Brisbane will be 10 sets out of 10 in an attempt to subdue the tricolours.
If the Roosters find the balance between ball movement and control, they win.
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No Darius Boyd
This is a huge factor. Darius sets up so much of the Brisbane attack and organises their defence line from his talk at the back.
The Broncos have problems defusing high attacking kicks and having the vertically challenged Kodi Nikorima at the back isn’t going to help the problem.
To be any chance of winning the title the Broncos desperately need Boyd’s experience and composure.
If Brisbane are forced to play next week, there’s no guarantee Darius’ hamstring will be right, so a win on Friday night and a week off is absolutely vital to their premiership chances.
Who wins?
With Darius Boyd in the team it would be difficult to pick, but with him in the stands, and the Broncos being forced to again reshuffle their spine, the Roosters will be too strong and through Pearce and Kerry, creative enough to win.
Roosters by 10
STORM V EELS
Key man
Semi Radradra and his ability to do something completely out of the box is a huge factor in Parramatta’s ability to pull off an enormous upset.
Everything the Eels plan this week on the training park, such as set sequences and little trick shots to break open the Storm’s defence, will almost certainly not worry Melbourne.
No team reads and reacts better than the Storm.
But Semi’s a completely differently story. You can’t plan for him. His size, speed, power and ability to perform the unorthodox is an X-factor in this.
Radradra scored four tries two weeks ago and three last week. Saturday afternoon’s a greater challenge, but who knows?
If Semi has a special night the Eels just might be able to pull off rugby league’s greatest challenge, beating Melbourne in Melbourne.
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Careful what you wish for
Parramatta coach Brad Arthur fired the first barb of the finals series by calling for the referees to crack down on wrestling and allow teams to play football.
I’m not sure whether a fast, open game of football would do Parramatta any favours, with the Storm’s attack the best in the NRL.
It takes me back to State of Origin III in 2015 where, with the series up for grabs, the NSW coaching staff called for the officials to pull the teams apart and make it a fast, open affair.
The referees granted them their wishes and Queensland smashed NSW 52-6.
Who wins?
This is the best Melbourne Storm side I have seen. They can beat you in a tight arm wrestle and they can out-football you if the style of the contest requires it.
They have Plan A, Plan B and probably Plan C. Parramatta will give some cheek but Storm by 14
MANLY VS PENRITH
Key Men
Daly Cherry-Evans gives them direction, Blake Green composes the team, while Tom Trbojevic gives the attack a cutting edge. But without forward momentum none of this works and Martin Taupau is Manly’s best metre man. When Marty plays well, Manly win.
For the Panthers, young Nathan Cleary faces an enormous challenge, not just as the chief playmaker, but as the only playmaker for his team. Peter Wallace will create a bit out of dummy-half, but Tyrone May and Dean Whare are runners, not ball players.
Cleary’s come a long way as a creative player since early in the season and this match provides opportunity to take another step forward in his career.
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Penrith’s week that was
With the Matt Moylan situation dominating headlines, only the Panthers players know how much of a distraction this has been.
An experienced playing group has the ability to shrug off just about anything and focus on the job at hand. But as the stories of Moylan’s apparent unhappiness at Penrith started to hit the headlines a few weeks back, the young Panthers’ form has dipped.
Who wins?
Penrith’s terrible start to the year has come back to bite them. They had to go on a long winning streak just to play finals football and I feel they’ve spent their pennies.
Manly by 8
SHARKS VS COWBOYS
Tactics
Both sides have drifted away from their strengths in recent times.
The Sharks’ premiership-winning campaign was all about attacking the opposition through a middle-third assault, using speed men to fatigue and then pierce through a tiring defensive line.
Of late, they have abandoned this and seem more intent on pushing the ball through their first receivers.
Likewise, the Cowboys will be better served making dummy-half Jake Granville a more focal attacking point, particularly with no Johnathan Thurston. The Cowboys without JT don’t create the same attacking threat with sideways ball movement.
Key return
Wade Graham and Jack Bird’s inclusions are enormous for Cronulla. Graham provides so much variation on the left side, as well as really stiffening up their defence.
Bird oozes the sort of confidence you need to make a run through the finals. Bird has a superiority complex. When in doubt, give him the football.
Who wins?
I’m predicting this will be the tightest of the week one matches. The Cowboys are tough, gritty and will challenge the Sharks with their big middle men, particularly the NRL’s best forward Jason Taumalolo. But at home, expect the Sharks to grind away to a tough win.
Sharks by 2
Originally published as NRL finals 2017: Matthew Johns delivers his preview of the first week of the finals
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