Matty Johns State of Origin preview: Selection errors, Nathan Cleary v Selwyn Cobbo

Far more than just a great player, Billy Slater has one of the best rugby league minds writes Matty Johns in his preview of where Origin I will be won and lost.

The Blues return home to NSW for the first time in two years, but that doesn’t automatically give them home-ground advantage.

Matty Johns breaks down the Penrith Panthers’ influence on the Blues, why Wayne Bennett’s advice can ignite Cameron Munster, the Nathan Cleary-Selwyn Cobbo battle and why coaching Queensland will be the stepping stone to bigger things for Billy Slater.

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THE BILLY FACTOR

I can’t wait to see what brand of football this Queensland side produces with Billy in charge. Slater has one of the best rugby league minds I’ve ever encountered. I’ve never worked with someone who has anywhere near the attention to detail that Billy has.

He understands the big, he understands the small.

Slater will bring his own style, and that’s not just good for Queensland, it’s good for rugby league.

Queensland coach Billy Slater is one of the best minds in the game. Picture: Zak Simmonds

The game needs a fresh approach.

There are too many coaches just copying what the Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers are doing.

A coach gets sacked and the next day he’s in line to get another job.

I believe that at the end of the series, Slater will be one of the most sought after coaches in rugby league, and I expect him to succeed Craig Bellamy at Melbourne.

The Maroons ambushed NSW in Origin III last year. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE?

The crowd will be all blue and will lift the New South Wales team, and will no doubt exert pressure on the referee but the slippery conditions lean in Queensland’s favour.

During the Maroons’ recent decade of dominance, Accor Stadium always guaranteed a tight, low-scoring affair which slowed the Queensland playmakers’ ball movement and gave our defence a distinct advantage.

If you look at the make-up of the Blues you see that we are pass-centric in the creative positions.

Queensland’s most famous upsets have been driven by spirit and an aggressive defensive mindset.

The Accor Stadium surface will suit that.

Jake Trbojevic’s passion will be sorely missed by the Blues. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

NSW OMISSIONS

It’s the predicament of success. Do you pick the incumbent who’ve got the job done previously, or reward those in better form?

I think it’s a really tough call not naming Jake Trbojevic and Josh Addo-Carr in the extended 22-man squad.

It’s not just what a player brings as far as form and talent.

Some coaches in the past have selected men who are out of form based purely on their ability to lift for the big occasion, and how they lift those around them.

They’ll miss Jake Trbojevic’s passion. He knows how to get himself up and his passion lifts his teammates. Prior to the team being named if you were to tell me James Tedesco was ruled out, I would have nominated Jake Trbojevic as the Blues’ skipper, such is the absence of

leadership with him not in the squad.

And they will miss Addo-Carr’s infectious personality. Josh binds the team together, he makes camp fun, he brings smiles to player’s faces.

Success is not just about the night of the game.

“RUN THE F … ING BALL, CAMERON”

These were the words Queensland coach Wayne Bennett yelled at Cameron Munster at halftime in Origin I, 2020.

In the second half he did indeed run the football, and Queensland overran the Blues in an upset victory.

This Queensland team will run the football, first and foremost, they are a huge run threat.

Daly Cherry-Evans in the No. 7, Munster in the No. 6, Ben Hunt and Harry Grant in the No. 9, and Kalyn Ponga in the No.1.

The Blues middle defenders will be put under pressure all game, doubly so if Queensland can start generating fast play-the-balls. Once again, on the slippery surface, run first, pass-second football is an advantage.

(L-R) Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo and Brian To'o are just three of Penrith’s Origin cohort. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

THE PENRITH CORE

At the very core of NSW is the creative combination of Isaah Yeo, Jerome Luai and Nathan Cleary. The Blues’ most successful teams have had creative combinations, and there’s no better in Rugby League than the Penrith trio.

Given the importance of combinations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Liam Martin and Stephen Crichton in the starting line-up, in particular Martin.

Edge back-rowers are the most crucial players for creatives and I see Liam Martin suiting Isaah Yeo’s ball playing style more than Tariq Sims and Cam Murray.

Nathan Cleary’s pinpoint kicking can nullify Queensland’s attacking weapons. Picture: John Appleyard

CLEARY V COBBO

Nathan Cleary’s kicking is a huge strength of New South Wales. Nathan puts the ball exactly where he intends, and no doubt he’ll look to put rookie Selwyn Cobbo under maximum pressure.

It’s a great battle, because even though Selwyn’s career is in its infancy he’s already shown how damaging he can be on kick returns and broken play.

In the very near future he’ll be the most damaging kick returner in rugby league.

Cleary will look to nullify Cobbo’s early tackle impact by putting high kicks to him and not giving him any time to get into second gear.

This match-up is one of the most crucial.

WHAT DECIDES THE GAME

The two halfbacks hold the key. Kicking will go a very long way to decide the contest.

If Nathan Cleary is given time and space for his last tackle options he will kick Queensland to death.

There’s pressure on Daly Cherry-Evans. So far this season his football has been inconsistent.

Defensively he tends to get disconnected with the players around him and the Blues will target his side.

Originally published as Matty Johns State of Origin preview: Selection errors, Nathan Cleary v Selwyn Cobbo