Matty Johns’ NRL Grand Final preview: Cameron Smith will lead Melbourne to victory

THE ability to control possession is behind the Cowboys’ amazing finals run. They won’t get it so easy against the Storm, writes MATTHEW JOHNS.

Cameron Smith can inspire and lead in the biggest games. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

THE ability to control possession is behind the Cowboys’ amazing finals run. They won’t get it so easy against the Storm, writes MATTHEW JOHNS.

BELIEF

Much of the winning and losing is done before you take the field.

Do you believe you are going to win? Do you believe you can win?

For the Cowboys, this is more than just beating a great football team, it’s about beating an icon. That’s what Cameron Smith is, even more so if you’re born north of Byron.

As Wally Lewis was more than a footballer to his generation of Queensland players, Smith is the same.

Smith is the greatest big-game player of all time. To his Queensland players, he’s their leader, their statesman.

Paul Harragon once described to me what it was like playing alongside Mal Meninga in the Australian team.

“You felt safe, it was like playing alongside your father, you knew he’d look after you and things would end well,” Harragon said.

AWKWARD: McLean the odd man out

Cameron Smith can inspire and lead in the biggest games. (Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

I watched Smith before Origin II and III of this year’s series. I watched the vision of Smith getting his Queensland players in a tight circle in the dressing room and giving his final instructions before they ran out.

Every set of eyes were glued to their captain. You saw the belief in them and you could see that belief grow as they listened and watched him. At that point I knew it wasn’t gonna end well for the Blues.

Michael Morgan and North Queensland have been incredible this September, but this is a whole new challenge.

You see, for a Queenslander beating: Maloney, Townsend and Gallen; Norman, Moses and Radradra; or Pearce, Keary and Cordner, is one thing.

Beating Cronk, Slater and Smith, is an entirely new challenge, both physically and mentally. The question is, do the Cowboys believe they can beat these men?

Only the player knows.

Melbourne have done nothing to provoke Jason Taumalolo. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

SILENCE ON TAUMALOLO

It’s not at all a surprise to hear total silence from the Melbourne Storm on the subject of Jason Taumalolo.

Last week Sydney Roosters enforcer Jared Waerea-Hargraves raised eyebrows when he called out Taumalolo in the lead-up to their match.

If Jared was after a reaction, he succeeded brilliantly, with Taumalolo’s running metres stretching almost from here to Gosford.

I have no doubt Storm coach Craig Bellamy would’ve threatened his players with the guillotine on any similar challenges to the young kiwi phenomenon.

I can’t think of another metre-making forward who I’ve ever seen that you’d pick ahead of Taumalolo.

Most of Morgan’s great work is happening straight off the back of a Taumalolo surge and fast play the ball.

Can the Storm’s middle defence curb Taumalolo’s impact? Reduce Taumalolo’s impact and you lessen the impact of Morgan. A crucial match-up.

THE WINNER

Melbourne.

Last week the Storm’s first-half attack put enormous pressure on their defensive line.

But that’s the thing about Melbourne, their defensive discipline allows them mistakes or even a poor attacking performance, and still be able to win.

In the first half, they made so many fundamental errors and gave away probably more seven-tackles restarts than they had all season, with a number of rushed and trick kicks. But at halftime they refocused and returned to fundamentals, until the ship found its course.

Full-time 30-0.

The scoreline after a substandard attacking performance shows the evolution of Melbourne. A team no longer content to just graft and grind. They initiate fast, attacking football.

Last Friday they were 5/10 in attack. If they’d been 9/10, the score would’ve been at least 50-0.

The key to the Cowboys’ run has been their ability to dominate possession in each contest.

Morgan’s kicking game has been the major factor. His 40/20s, in-goal repeat sets and high kicks that cause opposition error have handed the Cowboys extra sets and lion’s share of the ball.

Melbourne, better than any other team, identify an opposition’s strength and find a way to turn it into a weakness.

The Storm will attack Morgan from all angles to reduce his last tackle time.

North Queensland’s tough finals run will tell on them if they don’t once again dominate the possession stakes. And I just don’t see that happening.

The Roosters didn’t handle the pressure of being favourites last week. Melbourne will. A tight, tough first half, with Melbourne breaking away in the final 40 minutes of the 2017 season.

See you in March.

Melbourne by 16.

Originally published as Matty Johns’ NRL Grand Final preview: Cameron Smith will lead Melbourne to victory