Matty Johns NRL finals preview: Can Roosters pass Cowboys’ pressure test, and will Broncos weather the Storm?
MATTHEW JOHNS runs his expert eye over two massive NRL preliminary finals and makes a brave prediction ...
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MATTHEW JOHNS runs his expert eye over two massive NRL preliminary finals and makes a brave prediction ...
ROOSTERS VS COWBOYS
PRESSURE TEST
North Queensland are so relaxed. They’ve defied the odds, gone above everyone’s expectations, maybe even their own and have reached the final four without Matt Scott and Johnathan Thurston.
In the sheds after last Saturday night’s victory over Parramatta, the Cowboys’ players were cracking open cans of XXXX and grinning from ear to ear.
They are in a beautiful place. They have momentum, confidence and are playing with an underdog spirit that generates incredible energy and togetherness in a playing group.
The pressure is on the Roosters. Last week the Eels buckled under the weight of expectation. The week before against Melbourne, the Eels were energised by the challenge of being heavy underdogs, which in a big game is a luxury. As favourites they looked a different team.
The most crucial factor is how the Roosters handle the pressure of the occasion.
For the Cowboys, football is fun at the moment. On Friday night they’ll explode onto the field and go for broke.
The Roosters have to match that energy. If they play nervously they’ll lose.
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MICHAEL MORGAN
Thurston’s deputy has become the Sheriff of North Queensland. Morgan has been amazing in the last few weeks.
Last Saturday night he controlled the contest through his kicking, a true sign of a playmaker at the very top of his game.
One of the keys to the Cowboys’ two finals wins has been the amount of possession they’ve been able to generate. And that’s down to Morgan’s ability to find the right play at the end of sets. Whether it is grubbering into the in-goal or smashing the ball high and forcing an error.
Morgan is getting huge help from Lachlan Coote. I see the two chatting constantly in games, scheming, planning.
Coote is to Morgan what Morgan was to Thurston, a second-in-charge who reacts to and compliments anything the primary playmaker does.
YARDAGE BATTLE
It will be ferocious. The game’s best yardage man, Jason Taumalolo, up against the likes of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Dylan Napa in the middle.
I expect the Roosters’ outside backs to do a lot of the hard yardage work, to allow their forwards to exert the majority of their energy on defending the likes of Taumalolo. Who wins the yardage battle, wins the contest.
WHO WINS?
Momentum v freshness? From this distance, I’ll go for the Roosters, having benefited from a two-week preparation.
There’s some questions regarding Mitchell Pearce’s temperament, but Luke Keary’s calmness has brought out the best in Pearce in 2017 and I expect them to get the job done.
The Roosters’ key is to start fast and well. Chasing points ain’t fun when you’re on the big stage and you’re expected to win.
Roosters by 6
STORM V BRONCOS
FILL THE BOYD
The Broncos were better against the Panthers last week but still not great.
Darius Boyd’s return gives the Broncos a significant boost. His pass selection is outstanding, as is his defence. Boyd not only organises the defence, but often leads the kick-chase and will work hard from marker before returning to the back to talk the Broncos’ defenders into position.
But the Broncos will need to improve more than a little bit to really challenge the Storm.
STORM SURGE
The Storm worry the Broncos more than any other team because they attack them relentlessly.
Of all the Storm teams I’ve seen this is the most complete because they can hurt you in so many ways.
They can go with their traditional style of play which is to drill through the centre of your defence. The more momentum they get, the straighter they will play.
Or they can beat you with their width, which is a new string to their bow.
The ability to play sideline to sideline, bypassing the centre field. They hit you on one edge, then immediately hit you over the other side of the field.
There’s far more variation in their attacking shapes as well. They can go with their traditional “block” shapes in a rigid or they can suddenly start just firing the ball through passages of adlib football through the hands with long, wide passes.
The ability to change tact is why they’ve been so dominant.
WHO WINS?
The Broncos have struggled against sides who play open, fast football.
Last week the Panthers played too conservatively and right into the Broncos’ hands. The grind suits Brisbane just fine.
Melbourne are the best attacking outfit and the Broncos’ holding-style defence means Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Billy Slater will be given ample time to play and attack their target defenders such as Ben Hunt, Anthony Milford, Kodi Nikorima and Benji Marshall.
Melbourne by 16
Originally published as Matty Johns NRL finals preview: Can Roosters pass Cowboys’ pressure test, and will Broncos weather the Storm?
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