NRL season predictions: Your team’s finishing position, Roosters to slide as Parramatta finish first
In March, PAUL KENT had the Roosters completing a rare three-peat – but so much has changed since. Ahead of the NRL’s restart, he revisits his pre-season predictions with some huge changes.
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Rugby league is nearly back – which means it is time for Paul Kent to revisit his pre-season predictions.
The NRL 360 host laid it all on the line in March by backing the Sydney Roosters to do a three-peat – but all that has changed following a winless start for the defending premiers.
So after two rounds of competition, and then a hefty Coronavirus-enforced break, how do the 16 NRL teams stack up ahead of Thursday night’s resumption?
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EELS
Brad Arthur has assembled himself a formidable team this year and now, with a dream draw, the Eels are poised to make a comfortable run into the top four. They retain their home ground and play many “away” games at home, too. The Eels play twice only Manly and Brisbane from last year’s top eight.
Inside the club, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Ryan Matterson finish off the team list nicely. Campbell-Gillard is a State of Origin-calibre prop and the Eels got him for a song, while the younger Matterson is a strong chance to push his way into the Blues’ squad this season.
Around that the Eels’ pack is tough. Add the raw power Maika Sivo and Blake Ferguson bring to the edges, combined with Waqa Blake and Michael Jennings, will terrify the opposition.
Then you add Clint Gutherson, Mitch Moses and the game’s rising star, Dylan Brown.
If Moses can continue to improve and be more consistent, the Blue and Gold Army is in for a ride.
Prediction: 1st (3rd pre-COVID-19)
STORM
YOU can’t help but be full of admiration for the way Melbourne manage to be competitive season after season. Cameron Smith again remains the key and, so long as he is on the field, Melbourne are always a chance to do something great. Halfback remains
a key position and again it looks like coach Craig Bellamy will take a cautious approach. Jahrome Hughes seems set to get first crack but Ryley Jacks and, later in the season, Cooper Johns will compete for the role. The blessing is they will play behind a powerful pack.
The worry for Melbourne is a tough draw, playing four of last year’s top eight twice, with the other team they play twice the improved Newcastle.
Prediction: 2nd (4th pre-COVID-19)
RAIDERS
THE Raiders have the worst home ground advantage of any club, and will work under the worst possible conditions of any of the 16 NRL clubs.
They having to bus nearly three hours to every “home” game, or fly, and then return that night making recovery challenging. It might begin to tell as the season goes deep.
There were good signs in how they began the season, though. George Williams is a solid recruitment and was highly impressive in the opening two games, fitting quickly into his role. Like Josh Hodgson, will run the team, he could be a better signing than many anticipated and he will love the new six again rule.
Prediction: 3rd (2nd pre-COVID-19)
ROOSTERS
THE Roosters have the challenge ahead they might need. Forget about three in a row. They have a tough draw, playing four of last year’s top eight twice, and must come from a winless opening to the season.
The battle for the Roosters will be to give the start they have and make the top four, all in a shortened season. Still, the Roosters have done a magnificent job assembling this roster and nothing has changed there.
The premiers have lost Cooper Cronk and Latrell Mitchell but still have the strongest talent pool in the competition. Kyle Flanagan comes in at halfback, Josh Morris is a shrewd buy, while James Tedesco is the best player in the competition and still has improvement in him, as does Luke Keary at No.6.
Prediction: 4th (1st pre-COVID-19)
SEA EAGLES
Des Hasler did a tremendous job last year to take the completely overlooked Sea Eagles to the finals and they started this season just as impressively. So don’t expect anything to be different this season.
Hasler realised his pack was as good as any – Marty Taupau and Addin Fonua-Blake are two of the best yardage props in the game and unheralded edge forwards.
Then you add Jake Trbojevic as the third middle forward. With Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic creating opportunities in the backs, the Sea Eagles are in a good place.
Hasler has re-energised the club. The players are fit and enthusiastic, which creates its own energy inside the club confines. The big concern is the lack of a recognised dummy-half.
Prediction: 5th (5th pre-COVID-19)
PANTHERS
THE Panthers looked strong in their opening two games but have had a few hiccups during isolation. It remains to be seen how it affects them, keeping in mind how problems during last year’s pre-season created a hangover coach Ivan Cleary later admitted they struggled to recover from.
The Panthers seemed strong in their opening two games, with Nathan Cleary particularly impressive. With James Maloney no longer there to lead the team Cleary seamlessly stepped into the role and showed he was the leader many believed he was capable of becoming.
If they get it right they have the potential to go deep. Api Koroisau is a good foil and there is good depth in the forwards.
Prediction: 6th (7th pre-COVID-19)
RABBITOHS
LITTLE has changed in the Rabbitohs’ brief since COVID-19 – I’m still not sure about the Rabbitohs this season. They have possibly the best spine in the competition – and Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker, Adam Reynolds and Damien Cook are certain to drive many wins – and many are expecting the new six-again rule to benefit nobody more than it will Cook.
But already the Bunnies have lost James Roberts for an undetermined period while pressure remains on Mitchell.
He failed to finish his opening two games at fullback and coach Wayne Bennett has insisted Mitchell will start at fullback when the comp resumes but, tellingly, Bennett did not say how many minutes he would play there.
Souths teammates have been impressed with his efforts since he returned to training, which is a good sign.
Prediction: 7th (6th pre-COVID-19)
BRONCOS
THE Broncos started impressively and sparked a lot of hope for their fans.
The big question for Brisbane: can they win the premiership with a halfback who the Storm thought was incapable of winning them a premiership?
Showing good signs early, Brodie Croft proved himself a highly suitable role player in the Broncos system, and benefited playing behind the most exciting forward pack in the competition. David Fifita and Payne Haas both began strongly and the time off has helped Matt Lodge.
Prediction: 8th (10th pre-COVID-19)
KNIGHTS
ADAM O’Brien is a quality signing for the Knights and saw in their opening two games how much of a difference he has made. The Knights look almost a different side defensively.
How Newcastle navigate through the new ruck interpretations could be crucial to their season.
It’s still all a learning process for the Knights, making O’Brien the perfect appointment. There’s a bright crop of young players coming through and a handy group of young and talented NRL players about to make the transition into quality, seasoned rep players.
Most notably Kalyn Ponga, who will benefit enormously from O’Brien’s arrival.
Prediction: 9th (8th pre-COVID-19)
SHARKS
I’M worried about the Sharks. Andrew Fifita had knee troubles most of the summer which threatened to limit his season and which have already impacted, again, on his enforced rest from COVID-19.
Fifita came back underdone, highlighting the concern the Sharks have for their big prop. There are also concerns over whether Matt Moylan is in good enough shape to play 80 minutes at fullback after battling a hamstring issue during pre-season, but the break has done him good.
The break, combined with Josh Morris’s release, has also seen Josh Dugan return from his weird place and hopefully ready to fire. Welcome back, Josh.
Prediction: 10th (11th pre-COVID-19)
WESTS TIGERS
I LIKED everything I heard out of the Tigers over the summer but the round-two defeat to Newcastle was disappointing. It was the kind of loss coach Michael Maguire cannot tolerate, a team that lost its shape and lost resilience.
I still believe the Tigers will be tough and competitive and in better shape than most of their opponents but the concern remains the roster. Hiccups in recruitment have meant the only big signing is the erratic Joey Leilua, who generally wins the game for you or loses it.
Ryan Matterson is a big loss, and Robbie Farah has retired. If anything, the COVID-19 break has given Luke Brooks time to recover from injury and now he won’t miss anywhere near as many games as he was going to.
Prediction: 11th (13th pre-COVID-19)
COWBOYS
VALENTINE Holmes was everything the Cowboys hoped for since arriving in Townsville; a strong trainer, the complete professional, and the touch of quality to ignite their attack. But his opening two games showed it will be some time before he is at the same level of form he was in the NRL when he left.
The Cowboys were disappointing against Brisbane and unimpressive beating Canterbury. They got a boost with the new draw, not having to play any of last year’s top four teams more than once.
They also get to play at home, which will become a valuable asset for those teams who can.
Prediction: 12th (9th pre-COVID-19)
BULLDOGS
THE big news for Bulldogs fans is the COVID-19 delay has allowed time for Kieran Foran to recover from shoulder surgery and, if not available for the Dogs’ first game, it won’t be long. In this way, no team has benefited from the suspended competition like the Bulldogs.
Having said that, the work is still ahead of them. It was troubling to rank the Bulldogs so low based on what Dean Pay is doing at the club, and in light of last year’s finish to the season with seven wins from their final 10 games.
But the Dogs are still restricted by salary cap troubles and it will be several seasons yet before they are in a position to recruit their way up the ladder.
However, they are buying in to Pay’s coaching, as evidenced by last year’s finish, and there is an expectation the Bulldogs will improve again this season.
It might not always show up in the results but, certainly, the performance.
Canterbury’s biggest problem is the young age of their spine. By NRL standards, those players are still learning the game.
Prediction: 13th (14th pre-COVID-19)
WARRIORS
THE Warriors have suffered several worrying injuries to their middle forwards during their isolation camp.
So much, a quiet SOS has gone out throughout the league given isolation laws have made it tough to replace them.
By basing themselves in Australia, unable to return home, the Warriors will do it tougher than any Australian-based NRL team and the trick will be how they accept it.
They could turn the camp atmosphere into a call to arms or they could slowly become homesick and disinterested. Attitude has always been the club’s problem in seasons gone by, but this time it is for different reasons.
Prediction: 14th (15th pre-COVID-19)
DRAGONS
THE Dragons were extremely disappointing in their opening two games. Both were winnable and, in a worrying reflection of the team, they found a way to lose both. I expected immediate improvement from the Dragons but saw little of it.
Based on the opening games, their defence is the worst in the NRL. I thought Shane Flanagan’s appointment as an assistant and his ability to get the entire team buying in to a defensive system would provide immediate benefit.
The lack of it shows how much work still must be done. Beyond that, the Dragons’ biggest worry is their strength in the outside backs and their ability to score points.
They will improve, but it will come too late in the season to make the playoffs.
Prediction: 15th (12th pre-COVID-19)
TITANS
ASH Taylor’s return to the Titans this year, and the positive vibes coming from him, are a strong sign for the Gold Coast, and he seemed to be in good shape in the opening two games. Already we have seen new coach Justin Holbrook’s effect on the club.
Over the summer he broke the Titans down to bare essentials before trying to rebuild their game and the first two games seemed to reveal a more structured, more solid and trustworthy Gold Coast outfit.
It’s what needs to be done but they also need a plan that is built on patience. Holbrook’s next job is to get a few of those highly paid players to begin justifying their price tags.
Prediction: 16th (16th pre-COVID-19)
Originally published as NRL season predictions: Your team’s finishing position, Roosters to slide as Parramatta finish first