NRL race to top eight: Three contenders chasing a finals berth
There’s just seven weeks remaining until the NRL finals and the race for spots in the top eight is heating up - but one heavyweight side may have already booked their October holidays.
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Is the top eight already set in stone?
There’s still plenty of football to be played, but with the Knights big win over the Tigers and Manly’s shock loss to the Warriors there’s a chance the eight finals teams have already been decided.
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But plenty can still happen in the seven weeks between now and the semi-finals - NICK CAMPTON has taken a look at every club’s run home and analysed how they could fare in the race to the playoffs.
1) Penrith Panthers, 23 points (+150)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Warriors (A), Rd 15 vs Sharks (H), Rd 16 vs Tigers (H), Rd 17 vs Broncos (A), Rd 18 vs Eels (H), Rd 19 vs Cowboys (A), Rd 20 vs Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: Still in the box seat to win the minor premiership. Apart from the Round 18 clash with the Eels they’ll be favourites in every game they play until the finals and even then the punters will likely prefer the Panthers over their western Sydney rivals. It’s getting to the point where Ivan Cleary might not mind a loss, just to shake off any complacency his charges might be feeling after eight wins in a row.
Predicted finish: 1st
2) Melbourne Storm, 22 points (+188)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Roosters (A), Rd 15 vs Eels (A), Rd 16 vs Sea Eagles (H), Rd 17 vs Rabbitohs (A), Rd 18 vs Cowboys (H), Rd 19 vs Tigers (H), Rd 20 vs Dragons (A)
Analysis: Melbourne could probably get by if they lost Cameron Smith or Cameron Munster, but losing both is too much even for the Storm to cover. It’s come at an awkward time, given they play top four rivals in the next two weeks and their grip on a top two spot could be a little shaky. Once they navigate this difficult fortnight it should be smooth sailing, but the ground might be too much to make up.
Predicted finish: 4th
3) Parramatta Eels, 22 points (+124)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Dragons (H), Rd 15 vs Storm (H), Rd 16 vs Rabbitohs (H), Rd 17 vs Warriors (A), Rd 18 vs Panthers (A), Rd 19 vs Broncos (H), Rd 20 vs Tigers (A)
Analysis: The win over Cronulla was of vital importance because it keeps Parramatta on Melbourne and Penrith’s tail and creates a buffer separating them from the Roosters. If the Eels can topple at least one of the teams ahead of them and get a couple of breaks along the way, a top two finish - and a home final in the first week of the playoffs - can still be theirs.
Predicted finish: 2nd
4) Sydney Roosters, 18 points (+174)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Storm (H), Rd 15 vs Tigers (A), Rd 16 vs Broncos (H), Rd 17 vs Raiders (A), Rd 18 vs Knights (H), Rd 19 vs Sharks (H), Rd 20 vs Rabbitohs (A)
Analysis: They just keep winning. Everybody is getting injured, the victories aren’t all that impressive, but so long as they keep winning it doesn’t really matter. So long as they’re reasonably healthy come the first week of the finals and make the top four (which is likely but not certain, their run isn’t the easiest) the dream of three straight premierships lives on.
Predicted finish: 3rd
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5) Canberra Raiders, 16 points (+27)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Broncos (H), Rd 15 vs Titans (A), Rd 16 vs Bulldogs (H), Rd 17 vs Roosters (A), Rd 18 vs Dragons (A), Rd 19 vs Warriors (H), Rd 20 vs Sharks (A)
Analysis: The loss to Penrith showed Canberra are a little bit off the best teams in the competition but a handy draw over the final seven weeks still has them in control and finishing fifth or sixth, and securing a crucial home final, still seems likely. What may concern Ricky Stuart is their lack of punch in attack - it’s now been 21 games since they scored more than four tries in a match, and that shows up in their poor for and against.
Predicted finish: 5th
6) Newcastle Knights, 15 points (+71)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Sea Eagles (H), Rd 15 vs Cowboys (H), Rd 16 vs Warriors (A), Rd 17 vs Sharks (H), Rd 18 vs Roosters (A), Rd 19 vs Dragons (H), Rd 20 vs Titans (A)
Analysis: What a difference a win can make! All of a sudden, the Knights have gone from being caught in the churn of teams clamouring for seventh and eighth to being in the box seat for a fifth/sixth finish and a home game in week one of the finals. They have three winnable games in the next three weeks - if they win all three they’re just about guaranteed their first finals berth since 2013.
Predicted finish: 6th
7) South Sydney Rabbitohs, 14 points (+52)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Cowboys (A), Rd 15 vs Sea Eagles (H), Rd 16 vs Eels (A), Rd 17 vs Storm (H), Rd 18 vs Tigers (A), Rd 19 vs Bulldogs (H), Rd 20 vs Roosters (H)
Analysis: The Rabbitohs weren’t impressive against the Broncos but they did what needed to be done and are still on track for a top eight finish. With the Eels, Storm and Roosters in their future, it’s crucial that South Sydney get the wins when they can - victories over North Queensland and Manly in the next two weeks might just be enough to secure a finals spot.
Predicted finish: 8th
8) Cronulla Sharks, 14 points (+44)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Titans (H), Rd 15 vs Penrith (A), Rd 16 vs Cowboys (H), Rd 17 vs Knights (A), Rd 18 vs Warriors (H), Rd 19 vs Roosters (A), Rd 20 vs Raiders (H)
Analysis: The Sharks will be filthy they let the match against Parramatta slip away - a win would have put them up in fifth and, incredibly, in striking distance of the top four. As it stands, their destiny is still in their own hands - the matches with the Knights and Raiders are their most important of the season.
Predicted finish: 7th
9) Manly Sea Eagles, 12 points (-48)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Knights (A), Rd 15 vs Rabbitohs (A), Rd 16 vs Storm (A), Rd 17 vs Tigers (A), Rd 18 vs Bulldogs (A), Rd 19 vs Titans (H), Rd 20 vs Warriors (A)
Analysis: Des Hasler was not tolerating injury as an excuse following the Sea Eagles loss to the Warriors, but Manly players keep dropping like flies and unless the Silvertails can rally their season could just about be done in the next two weeks. A loss to Newcastle will have them two wins outside the eight, and losing to Souths in Round 15 could almost be the end. It’s still there for Manly if they’re good enough, but taking down the Knights without Tom Trbojevic and Addin Fonua-Blake would be a herculean feat.
Predicted finish: 9th
10) Wests Tigers, 10 points (-12)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Bulldogs (H), Rd 15 vs Roosters (H), Rd 16 vs Panthers (A), Rd 17 vs Sea Eagles (A), Rd 18 vs Rabbitohs (H), Rd 19 vs Storm (A), Rd 20 vs Eels (H)
Analysis: The clash with the Knights was the Tigers biggest game of the season and they didn’t just lose, they copped a beating that might shatter their finals hopes for another 12 months. Newcastle have more talent than the Tigers, and losing Harry Grant was a hammer blow, but there can be no excuse for such a display in a game of this importance. A win over Canterbury this week may only delay the inevitable - they play the entire top four in the next seven weeks.
Predicted finish: 10th
11) New Zealand Warriors, 10 points (-131)
Run home: Rd 14 vs Panthers (H), Rd 15 vs Bulldogs (A), Rd 16 vs Knights (A) Rd 17 vs Eels (H), Rd 18 vs Sharks (A), Rd 19 vs Raiders (A), Rd 20 vs Sea Eagles (H)
Analysis: Their for and against is terrible. They are two wins outside the eight. Six of their final seven games are against top eight sides. They have spent the entire season away from home. Their roster is constantly changing and could be depleted even further with no warning whatsoever. They have not beaten a top eight side all year. The fact they even have a mathematical chance to make the finals is a credit to everyone at the club. It’s unlikely - to the point divine intervention may be required - but not impossible.
Predicted finish: 12th
Originally published as NRL race to top eight: Three contenders chasing a finals berth