NRL finals preview: Timing’s off for Rabbitohs, Raiders
Canberra and South Sydney had very different results last start, but both could come back to bite them when the NRL finals kick off this weekend.
NRL
Don't miss out on the headlines from NRL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
NRL fans survey: Who is rugby league’s best player
NRL fans survey: Expand but leave Sydney clubs alone
Canberra’s shock loss to the Warriors on Saturday has led to a dramatic shift in the match-ups for week one of the finals.
If they had taken care of the Warriors as expected, the Raiders would have built momentum heading into a clash against the Sydney Roosters.
Instead, they have booked themselves a trip to Melbourne for a showdown against the minor premiers.
What’s the difference, you ask? The Raiders are in their first finals series since 2016 and need everything to go their way.
There is no such thing as a good loss and the result against the Warriors was something they didn’t need.
Stream every match of the 2019 NRL Telstra Premiership Finals Series before the Grand Final Live & On-Demand on KAYO SPORTS. Get your 14 day free trial and start streaming instantly >
Sure, they had already secured a top-four spot, but they have the least finals experience of the top-four teams. Even the Sharks and Broncos have them covered in this area.
A solid home win last Saturday after their gutsy golden-point away victory against the Sharks would have nicely topped off their preparations.
A short trip to Sydney to play a Roosters side coming off a tough loss to Souths was the viable next challenge.
But the Raiders missed their golden opportunity at a time of year when teams need to grab every advantage they can.
For the same reason, the Rabbitohs didn’t need to be facing the Roosters again a week after upsetting them.
The psychology of both finals favours the home teams.
The Melbourne Storm have lost just four games this season, two of them in golden point (against the Roosters and Manly). The others losses were by two points away to Cronulla and by four to the Raiders in Melbourne only a month ago.
The Storm led 18-0 after 30 minutes in that match against the Raiders but were overrun in the second half in what was Canberra’s best performance of the season.
Storm coach Craig Bellamy accused his players of relaxing and being complacent.
The wounds from that defeat will still be raw for Bellamy and his men and they don’t usually miss an opportunity to exact revenge.
The Storm have been the best side all season, conceding a miserly average of 12 points a game.
Canberra have to beat them at some time to win the comp but their best chance might well be in a few weeks when coming off a tough qualifying final win or, better still, in the last game of the season.
I think deep down Souths would have been feeling a little uncomfortable after the weekend despite climbing off the canvas to upset the Roosters.
It was just the performance coach Wayne Bennett would have wanted from his players before the playoffs but it all went a little pear-shaped following the win.
On Friday, they lost Sam Burgess to suspension and Dane Gagai to injury.
On Saturday, they learnt they would again be playing the Roosters, but this time their arch-rivals would have Luke Keary, Mitch Aubusson, Brett Morris and Siosiua Taukeiaho back in the side.
Then on Sunday, the Sharks stormed into form, and the finals, and are likely to be their opponents in week two should Souths lose to the Chooks.
LISTEN! Matty Johns, Brett Finch and Paul Kent have a look at the first week of the finals, Ben Ikin’s run-in with Sticky, why the Titans are such a mess and Russell Crowe’s book of feuds.
Subscribe to the Matty Johns podcast on iTunes, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
Two teams don’t often meet in the first week of the finals after playing each other in the final round of the regular season.
I experienced it with Penrith in 2017 when we were trounced by Manly at Brookvale on the last Saturday of the regular season and again faced them in an elimination final. We couldn’t wait. Saturday couldn’t come quick enough.
Facing the Sea Eagles again played right into our hands and revenge was sweet when we won by 12.
The Roosters will be feeling the same way. They dominated the first half last week and should have led by 20 points at half-time.
Now they have the chance to get one back on their arch enemy.
As I said in this column last week, timing is everything — and the Raiders and Rabbitohs might be ruing theirs after this weekend.
Originally published as NRL finals preview: Timing’s off for Rabbitohs, Raiders