NRL finals analysis: How Broncos and Dragons match up

BRISBANE will face St George Illawarra in a do-or-die NRL finals encounter — we run the rule over the their blockbuster clash plus the remaining NRL playoffs fixtures.

THE Dragons will have to win their first game in Brisbane in nine years on Sunday to extend their season after a gripping finish to the NRL home-and-away rounds this afternoon.

The Broncos start the NRL finals series on Sunday as they started the season — with a showdown with former clubmate Ben Hunt’s Dragons.

Hunt’s long-awaited first game for St George Illawarra in round 1 resulted in a cherry-ripe Dragons team putting a 34-12 win over the Broncos at Kogarah Oval, the only meeting this year between the two teams.

Tevita Pangai Jr and the Broncos were thumped by the Dragons in the only clash between the two sides this season. Picture: Getty Images

Brisbane’s 48-16 win over Manly qualified the Broncos in sixth place on a percentage basis when, incredibly, they and Penrith both finished on 32 points and a plus-56 points differential after 25 rounds.

The NRL said the Broncos would be scheduled to play a Sunday afternoon elimination final against the Dragons, with the series to start on Friday night with the Storm-Rabbitohs qualifying final.

Penrith will host the eighth-placed Warriors in the first of Saturday’s two matches.

St George Illawarra have lost their last nine matches at Suncorp Stadium, going back to round 4, 2009.

The Broncos booked a home NRL final with a thumping win over the Sea Eagles. Picture: Getty Images

The Dragons may have Gareth Widdop back from a shoulder injury and centre Euan Aitken (hamstring). They are awaiting the results of a scan for their NSW Origin back-rower Jack de Belin.

Brisbane expect hooker Andrew McCulliogh back from his one-week rest due to concussion and also Alex Glenn (hamstring).

The winners of the two qualifying finals will enter the preliminary final. One of these games pits the Roosters versus the Sharks, with the other between Melbourne and South Sydney.

The other two finals games are sudden-death affairs.

The four finals clashes in week one are:

ANALYSIS: WEEK ONE NRL FINALS MATCH-UPS

FRIDAY NIGHT: STORM (2) V RABBITOHS (3)

Melbourne used to have the wood over the Bunnies. They recently had a run of five consecutive wins but the ledger titled back slightly after the Rabbitohs gained a confidence boosting 30-20 victory when they met in Sydney last month.

Melbourne’s home is often called a fortress but this year the aura has not been as intimidating with four losses. Souths will start underdogs but have seven wins and five losses in away games and with skipper Greg Inglis back from injury in style against the Tigers on Thursday night they should be capable of a rousing showing.

The stats tell us Souths have been the better attacking team this winter and the Storm the superior tackling team. Melbourne like to try and frustrate Souths by pinning them deep in their own half and milking mistakes.

The champagne individual clash will be between Souths hooker Damien Cook, the hooker who inspired NSW to their State of Origin win this season, and the great Melbourne captain Cameron Smith. The tactical exchange between coaching great Craig Bellamy and finals debutant Anthony Seibold, seen as a rising star, will also be fascinating.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: PANTHERS (5) V WARRIORS (8)

Penrith breathed some belief back into their season under caretaker coach Cameron Ciraldo with a defiant win over below-strength Melbourne on Friday night.

The Warriors tuned up for the finals with a four-point win over the dangerous Raiders on Saturday.

The Warriors won seven games outside New Zealand in the regular season, casting doubt on the theory that they can’t win big games on the road,

The opening 20 minutes appears key in this finals encounter, judging by the trends of this year’s two showdowns.

Penrith lost 36-16 in round 24 in Auckland, but prevailed 36-4 in round 17 at home.

Their win in Melbourne on Friday night was achieved with only 42 per cent of possession and only two line breaks. James Maloney’s return from a knee ligament problem lightened the organisational burden on his NSW Origin teammate Nathan Cleary.

Maloney has a week of football under his belt and Reagan Campbell-Gillard has had five games back after a five-week injury absence.

SATURDAY NIGHT: ROOSTERS (1) V SHARKS (4)

You can make a case that the winner of this game has as good a chance as any of winning the grand final.

Nine of the past 11 premiers have been one of the two best defensive teams in the regular season in terms of points against.

The Roosters average 15 points per game conceded this year, with the Storm next with 15.1 points. The Sharks (17.6 per game) had the third best defensive record.

Cronulla won a seventh game from their past nine rounds with today’s 30-18 decision over Canterbury to claim fourth place and the double chances. Of the two losses, one was by two points to the Broncos and the second was by one point to Manly.

The Roosters ended a two-game losing streak by pasting Parramatta 44-10 but had won their previous five matches and are as worthy minor premiers as any one of the top three would have been.

SUNDAY: BRONCOS (6) V DRAGONS (7)

The Dragons limped into the finals with a come-from-behind 24-16 win over Newcastle on Saturday to set the Broncos a target of a 24-point winning margin over Manly to secure a home final.

St George Illawarra missed only 15 tackles in the win over the Knights in a welcome statement of intent to encourage their frazzled fans, but the Broncos have more fluency in attack and more line breakers than Newcastle.

The Dragons defended 50 tackles inside their 20m zone — compared to 12 by the Knights defence.

Widdop’s return would benefit Hunt most of all Dragons in attack.

Only Widdop is expected to train with the team this week out of their injured trio, he, Aitken and winger Jason Nightingale (elbow).

“We get him (Widdop) back, so our attack will improve straight away. Defensively we need to get it right,” Dragons coach Paul McGregor said on Saturday.

Originally published as NRL finals analysis: How Broncos and Dragons match up