NRL 2024 Finals Failures Special Report: Who goes up and who stays down in 2025
Who will bounce back and who will continue to flounder in 2025? PAMELA WHALEY analyses the bottom nine sides from 2024 to see which teams will and won’t be playing finals footy next season.
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It was a horror season for every Queensland club except the Cowboys, which has become an unfortunate status quo for the northern state.
They haven’t had multiple finalists in a single season since 2017.
It wasn’t all roses elsewhere either.
The Eels, Broncos and Rabbitohs lost their coaches, while the Titans, Dragons and Tigers managed teething pains adjusting to new leadership in 2024.
Canberra couldn’t quite get there despite a late surge and the Warriors had the wobbles after a brilliant season in 2023.
Fixable problems or a perennial culture problem?
We take a look at the bottom nine for 2024, and how to make them great again.
RAIDERS
How it came to this
The Raiders started the season with back-to-back wins over the Knights and Wests Tigers but with a young squad, the loss of experienced halfback Jamal Fogarty hit hard.
Sidelined for nine weeks through the middle of the season, Fogarty’s absence was a massive blow to the Raiders who lost their way without an organising half. They were steered by impressive up and coming stars still getting used to the grind of weekly NRL.
By the time Fogarty returned to the field they rallied with wins over the Warriors, Penrith and the Roosters and finished with three straight wins, but mid-season losses cost them. In particular, a brutal loss to Canterbury in round 22 hurt as they finished just outside the top eight on points differential.
Key issues
It’s another changing season for the Raiders.
Losing the experience of Elliott Whitehead and Jordan Rapana, the youth in Canberra will be front and centre in 2025 as they continue to develop under coach Ricky Stuart.
They struggled to score points this year and that will be a big focus moving forward with a young spine still trying to find the right combinations.
Reason for hope
Ethan Strange was a stand out in his first full season of NRL and his development in the halves is reason enough to be excited about the future.
Kaeo Weekes eventually found his place at fullback and the emergence of Chevy Stewart shows the depth of talent Canberra has to build on for 2025 and beyond.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: Ethan Sanders (Eels), Myles Martin (Knights), Savelio Tamale (Dragons)
Outs: Elliott Whitehead (Catalans Dragons), Nick Cotric (Catalans Dragons), Zac Woolford (Huddersfield Giants)
Prediction
Great again – they’ll be top 8 in 2025.
DOLPHINS
How it came to this
In just their second season in the NRL the Dolphins continued to build and will ultimately chalk up 2024 as a successful year for the club.
They copped a huge blow early with star recruit Tom Flegler ruled out for the season with a complicated shoulder injury which has threatened his career.
It took a massive toll on the squad considering the money invested to bring him across from Brisbane.
However, under the guidance of Wayne Bennett, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Herbie Farnworth had outstanding seasons while the ongoing development of Isaiya Katoa and Max Plath pushed the Dolphins within a genuine chance of making finals.
A favourable draw helped.
They were within the top four several times throughout the middle of the season, but big games at the back end of the year with no byes in hand eventually knocked them down the ladder.
They needed to beat the Knights in Newcastle in the final round, but it was a bridge too far.
Key issues
The loss of Wayne Bennett will leave a huge question mark for 2025.
Clubs rarely kick on once he departs, which is no knock on Kristian Woolf, who has been an NRL coach in the making for several years.
How the club moves on in the post-Bennett era and fully embraces Woolf will be essential to success in 2025.
Reason for hope
Farnworth and Tabuai-Fidow have become two of the biggest stars in the NRL and they’ll only get better again in 2025.
Both have starred on the representative stage and will take that success back to club land.
The club is also hopeful an innovative surgery can save Flegler’s career and get him back on the field which would be enormous for them.
The addition of Knights forward and ex-NSW Origin prop Daniel Saifiti is also a huge boost to the front-row rotation. If he can get firing again, he will be a big asset.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: Junior Tupou (Wests Tigers), Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Cowboys), Daniel Saifiti (Knights), Max Feagai (Dragons)
Outs: Tevita Pangai Junior (Catalans)
Prediction
Bottom 9 – they’ll be on this list again in 2025.
DRAGONS
How it came to this
Shane Flanagan’s appointment shook up the team and there were obvious signs of improvement straight away. They won five of their first 10 games and they lingered around the middle of the ladder, putting themselves in finals contention towards the back end of the year with a shock 18-16 win over Melbourne in round 22.
However, they came crashing back to reality with losses to Cronulla, Parramatta and Canberra in the last three rounds which evaporated any chance of a top eight finish.
They were sitting eighth going into round 25 but finished 11th despite everything to play for.
Key issues
Flanagan and the Dragons have drawn a line in the sand now after the release of Ben Hunt, opting to move into 2025 with a clean slate rather than another season of conjecture over his future. But at the moment that does not include a million-dollar halfback or even an obvious replacement. On top of releasing their chief playmaker, they have lost the form winger of the competition and the club’s top pointscorer in Zac Lomax, who finished on 202 points this season including 14 tries.
It’s a dual blow to the Dragons attack.
Reason for hope
The Dragons showed more grit in patches throughout 2024 and far exceeded expectations in their first season under Flanagan.
That upward trajectory is every chance of continuing through another season, and the recruitment of Clint Gutherson and Valentine Holmes adds experience and leadership into a group desperate for it.
A stack of young talent was blooded in 2024 and that will pay off next season.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: Damien Cook (Rabbitohs), Valentine Holmes (Cowboys), Clint Gutherson (Eels)
Outs: Zac Lomax (Eels), Savelio Tamale (Raiders), Jack Bird (Wests Tigers), Max Feagai (Dolphins), Ben Hunt (released)
Prediction
Bottom 9 – they’ll be on this list again in 2025.
BRONCOS
How it came to this
No one could have predicted the tailspin Brisbane would find themselves in just 12 months after losing the grand final to Penrith.
The bright young roster crashed and burned as injuries and baffling performances dragged down any chance of a title for a club with such high premiership expectations coming into 2024.
They won just three of their last 12 games which included a six-game losing streak, and fumbled with their season on the line against Canterbury and close rivals Gold Coast, who handed them an embarrassing 46-18 loss.
Coach Kevin Walters did not have the answers, and it cost him his job.
Key issues
Reece Walsh and Adam Reynolds were missing through patches of the season which made consistency difficult, but there has been no notable recruitment to cover those losses if they happen again in 2025.
Star five-eighth Ezra Mam is also in hot water over off-field behaviour, which seems to be a reflection of a developing culture at Brisbane that needs to be eradicated.
Incoming coach Michael Maguire will have a hell of a job on his hands to right the ship.
Reason for hope
Michael Maguire’s one series stint with the NSW Origin team came with immediate success despite hurdles, and there’s no reason he can’t do the same thing with the Broncos.
His relentless work ethic and high expectations are exactly what this impressionable but immensely talented young side needs to turn the club into a premiership force again.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: Nil
Outs: Tristan Sailor (St Helens)
Prediction
Great again – they’ll make top 8 in 2025.
WARRIORS
How it came to this
There’s no way around it, the Warriors had a fall from grace in 2024.
After a magical 2023, there were high hopes for the club on top of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck returning, which made their crash down the ladder even more disappointing.
They had a brief period of a fortnight in the top eight early on with a big win over South Sydney and a draw with Manly, but lost their next four games and never recovered.
Injuries played a major part through the season with promising five-eighth Luke Metcalf suffering a broken leg, Shaun Johnson in and out of the team and Tohu Harris and Wayde Egan also sidelined for various periods.
They snapped a four-game losing streak in the final game of the year against Cronulla to farewell Johnson, but overall it was a bitterly unsatisfying year.
Key issues
The Warriors struggled to nail down a halves combination in 2024 and it will be the same predicament next year.
If Luke Metcalf is fit he will be first choice, but Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Te Maire Martin, Chanel Harris-Tevita and new recruit Tanah Boyd are all options to complete the duo.
They also have plenty of work to do on their defence. They lost seven games by four points or less in 2024, which would have been more than enough to land them a finals finish.
Reason for hope
Four-time premiership winner James Fisher-Harris could be one of the best signings in club history with the potential to inspire big change at the Warriors.
His winning experience and leadership is a massive coup for the club who have all the talent but need to learn how to routinely win.
The continuing rise of Metcalf and the unearthing of fullback Taine Tuaupiki can spark the attack too.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: James Fisher-Harris (Panthers), Jett Cleary (Panthers), Motu Pasikala (upgraded), Erin Clark (Titans), Sam Healey (Sharks), Tanah Boyd
Outs: Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks), Jazz Tevaga (Sea Eagles), Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs)
Prediction
Bottom 9 – they’ll be on this list again in 2025.
TITANS
How it came to this
A new coach in Des Hasler and a season-ending injury to captain Tino Fa’asuamaleaui made for a slow start to the season. But by the end of the year the Titans were showing signs of improvement even if the results weren’t flowing on the field.
After beating the Dolphins and Broncos in back to back weeks there was talk of mathematical possibilities of making finals, but they were quickly snuffed out. They finished the season just how they started it, with five straight losses.
Key issues
Inconsistency was their biggest issue as they alternated between huge lapses in defence and close losses and that ultimately cruelled their finals hopes. Twice they were held to nil against Cronulla and Canterbury throughout the year, but they also had six losses by six points or less, pushing grand finalists Penrith and Melbourne all the way to show what they’re capable of. Closing those gaps between their best and worst games will be their battle in 2025.
Reason for hope
Fullback Keano Kini dazzled in his debut for New Zealand in the Pacific Championships, giving fans hope he can kick on again at the Titans next season. The 20 year old played 16 games and scored six tries in 2024 but there is a lot of development left in him.
With another year under Hasler and Fa’asuamaleaui on the field too, things could be very different in 2025.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: Carter Gordon (Australian Rugby) – (top 30), Sam Stephenson (Development Contract), Zane Harrison (Development Contract)
Outs: Erin Clark (Warriors), Seth Nikotemo (Trinity Wakefield)
Prediction
Bottom 9 – they’ll be on this list again in 2025.
EELS
How it came to this
It was the season from hell for the Eels and it ultimately cost long-term coach Brad Arthur his job. An injury to star halfback Mitch Moses compounded the on field misery as their ageing roster started to crumble and the gaps in their recruitment became glaringly obvious. It was apparent early on they weren’t getting off the bottom of the ladder, and they were lucky to avoid the wooden spoon with a monster 60-24 win over the Wests Tigers in the final round.
Key issues
It became clear a rebuild was needed once they lost Blaize Talagi to Penrith due to the ongoing uncertainty within the squad.
With Clint Gutherson and Reagan Campbell-Gillard out the door it will force a reshuffle as well as a change in leadership.
The issue for the incoming rookie coach Jason Ryles is finding the right combinations with Zac Lomax and Isaiah Iongi to be added to the squad.
It’s a huge task to manage for a club and supporter base desperate for results.
Reason for hope
The arrival of Zac Lomax adds speed and power to a group that has long needed an x-factor in the back five. The NSW and Australian star has come off the best season of his career, and although he does not want to play on the wing, it’s obvious that’s his best position at the moment.
Fans got a glimpse of the future when Moses and Lomax linked up to score 18 points between them for the Kangaroos in their victory over New Zealand, which is reason enough to be excited for 2025.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: Zac Lomax (Dragons), Isaiah Iongi (Panthers), Dean Hawkins (Rabbitohs), Joash Papalii (Bulldogs), Jordan Samrani (Bulldogs)
Outs: Ethan Sanders (Raiders), Blaize Talagi (Panthers), Reagan Campbell-Gillard (Gold Coast Titans), Clint Gutherson (Dragons)
Prediction
Great again – they’ll be top 8 in 2025.
RABBITOHS
How it came to this
They won just one game in their first 10 of the season as everything from long term injuries, poor form, suspensions and off-field dramas were thrown at them. After a disappointing finish in 2023 and the spotlight firmly on their culture and high performance standards, they needed a fast start to save coach Jason Demetriou’s position.
But once he was let go in April, things steadily began to improve under interim coach Ben Hornby. They won six out of seven games in a hot streak through the middle of the season but finished second last with a run of seven losses to end the year.
Key issues
They need more from Latrell Mitchell, both on and off the field.
He’s the most influential player at the club and his disciplinary issues need to be ironed out in 2025 if they’re going to improve.
Bottom line, he needs to be playing, and playing well, for Souths to return to a premiership force.
Additionally, they have yet to settle on a halves pairing and that will be top priority for Wayne Bennett early on.
Reason for hope
Wayne Bennett is expected to have a huge impact upon his return to the club.
His close relationship with Cody Walker, Cameron Murray and Mitchell can unify the squad and bring stability after such a turbulent season.
Talent is no issue in this side, and Bennett is a master at getting the best from his players.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: Jamie Humphreys (Sea Eagles), Euan Aitken (Dolphins), Lewis Dodd (St Helens)
Outs: Thomas Burgess (Huddersfield), Damien Cook (Dragons), Dean Hawkins (Eels)
Prediction
Bottom 9 – they’ll be on this list again in 2025.
WESTS TIGERS
How it came to this
Rookie coach Benji Marshall had his work cut out for him when he took on the toughest job in rugby league this season.
But unfortunately it didn’t get any easier. With a young squad and underperforming experienced players, they crashed to their third straight wooden spoon with just six wins dotted among two long losing streaks (nine and seven). Back to back wins over Cronulla and Parramatta had them sitting 11th on the ladder after round four, but they quickly crashed to the bottom of the ladder as their unchecked ill discipline ran wild.
Key issues
Amazingly, they finished with 16 sin-bins in 2024, the most of any side in any season of the NRL. Fixing those bad habits will be a huge focus for the off-season as Marshall attempts to pull together a successful team that can turn around the club’s fortunes.
They’ve made a stack of good recruitment decisions, but building those connections and allowing them to grow while under pressure to improve will be a balancing act in 2025.
Reason for hope
The arrival of four-time premiership star Jarome Luai will instantly add class to a team desperate to learn how to win. His partnership with rising gun Lachlan Galvin in the halves is a genuinely exciting prospect, forming a spine the club can build on with Api Koroisau at hooker and Jahream Bula in the No. 1 jersey. Up front they’ve added Royce Hunt from Cronulla and Jack Bird from the Dragons which will add punch, while Panthers winger Sunia Turuva will add much needed pace to the backline.
2025 Market Watch
Ins: Jarome Luai (Panthers), Sunia Turuva (Panthers), Jeral Skelton (Bulldogs), Royce Hunt (Cronulla Sharks), Jack Bird (Dragons)
Outs: Junior Tupou (Dolphins), Isaiah Papali’i (Panthers)
Prediction
Bottom 9 – they’ll be on this list again in 2025.
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Originally published as NRL 2024 Finals Failures Special Report: Who goes up and who stays down in 2025
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