NRL 2023: Upsets, floggings and a grand final preview — bold NRL round 1 predictions

Rugby league is back, but things could get ugly in the Dolphins’ NRL debut when they face the Roosters in Round One. DAVID RICCIO breaks down who will flop and who will fire.

Who will win the Round 1 NRL clashes?

Rugby league is back. Ahead of the 2023 NRL season kick-off, David Riccio breaks down the opening round of the competition. Check out his bold predictions.

EELS V STORM

The opening game of the 2023 season and here’s the first upset of the season. Parramatta are $2.15 outsiders in this match despite making last year’s grand final. They will win.

Us Sydney-centric folk will point towards the Eels key departures from the club and a depleted backrow with Ryan Matterson and Shaun Lane unavailable, as a means to say the blue and golds could struggle.

Yet their brilliant halves and fullback are still there and I saw enough of Josh Hodgson in the trials to know he’s more than capable of covering the loss of Reed Mahoney. Then I look at Melbourne and wonder if 2023 could be the year the mighty machine finally breaks down.

They have lost almost 1000 games of NRL experience with Jesse Bromwich, Kenny Bromwich, Brandon Smith and Felise Kaufusi gone and Ryan Papenhuyzen and Tui Kamikamica injured for this. Remember Tariq Sims signed to help with experience? Well, he can’t get on the field yet either.

Eels by 6.

Mitchell Moses and the Eels are primed to upset Melbourne. Picture: Getty Images

WARRIORS V KNIGHTS

Another upset if you’re having a punt. Chatting to Newcastle legend Andrew Johns recently about Kalyn Ponga’s move to five-eighth and the Immortal was full of praise for the way the Knights marquee talent has gone “all in” to nail the transition from fullback.

Few other clubs have as much pressure on them as Newcastle to begin the season. You only need to know that the Knights began pre-season earlier than any other club to consider that coach Adam O’Brien will have his team timed to the minute for a first-up kill.

The Knights forward pack is good enough to match the Warriors and while the latter will improve in 2023 under new coach Andrew Webster, I’m concerned playmaker Shaun Johnson has gone one year too long.

Knights by 4.

Kalyn Ponga has gone “all in” to nail his switch to five-eighth. Picture: Getty Images

PANTHERS V BRONCOS

The best thing that could’ve happened to Penrith is losing the World Club Challenge to St Helens last week.

The shattered expression on the face of Nathan Cleary showed me all I needed to know that the star halfback is just as driven to deliver in 2023. He was filthy. The match was also, easily the most intense of all the trials if you’re looking for a solid hitout before round one.

If we’re using the WCC as a form guide, I love the fact that the trio who didn’t play last week, Liam Martin, Dylan Edwards and Scott Sorensen, all come back into the side. Plenty of good judges have the Broncos in their top eight this year. I don’t.

Panthers by 8.

Nathan Cleary and the Panthers will be driven by their defeat to St Helens. Picture: Getty Images

Patrick Carrigan in action for the Broncos. Picture: NRL Photos

SEA EAGLES V BULLDOGS

I wrote last week why the Bulldogs making the finals is too premature. Not so for Manly, I expect them to be there in September. To do that, they have to be beating the Bulldogs first-up at home.

I love the Sea Eagles’ two powerful edge-forwards, Kelma Tuilagi and Haumole Olakau’atu, expect one or both to score a try in this match. The loss of Josh Schuster (calf) doesn’t faze me the way Cooper Johns has played in the trials and of course, Tom Trbojevic is back.

The Bulldogs were taught a lesson by the Sharks last week at Belmore. It will sharpen them up, but with an all-new spine and defensive model it will still take time.

Sea Eagles by 14.

Reed Mahoney and the Bulldogs are a work in progress. Picture: NRL Photos

COWBOYS V RAIDERS

Humid Townsville on a Saturday afternoon in the first week of March, it doesn‘t get much tougher than this for a first-up assignment for the Raiders. Canberra used 13 different spine combinations last season, the most of any team and once again, coach Ricky Stuart won’t be able to field his first-choice with fullback Xavier Savage (jaw) unavailable.

That’s a concern for me against a Cowboys side that should simply have no excuses not to be as strong as what they were last season. How strong were they?

The Cowboys had the most post contact metres, second most total metres and third most points scored last year.

Cowboys by 8.

SHARKS V RABBITOHS

A grand final preview perhaps? Two of the game‘s heavyweights in 2023, this is the game of the round in my view and the toughest game of the round to pick.

Only the Sharks home ground advantage lends me towards going with Craig Fitzgibbon’s side, who have looked just as sharp as what the Rabbitohs have through the pre-season.

There’s match-up galore with Hynes v Walker, Mitchell v Kennedy, Talakai v Graham, Mulitalo v Johnston. The Bunnies ended the Sharks season last year and the mail is the Cronulla players are still burning from it.

Sharks by 1.

Nicho Hynes and the Sharks are burning from their finals exit at the hands of South Sydney. Picture: Getty Images

DOLPHINS V ROOSTERS

History will be made with the official arrival of The Dolphins.

Unfortunately, it won’t be a case of happy beginnings. This could get embarrassing for Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett, if the Roosters arrive in Brisbane in a mood.

Injury concerns for Luke Keary, Joey Manu and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves could see them ruled out, however, even if they don’t play, I expect the Chooks to run away with this.

Roosters by 24.

Wayne Bennett has a huge task ahead with the Dolphins. Picture: Getty Images

David Klemmer and the Wests Tigers need a strong start.

TIGERS V TITANS

Sheens, Benji, Klemmer, Koroisau and Papalii, the time for talk is over for the Tigers with the shopping spree designed to overhaul the club on display for all to see. It’s imperative the Tigers must send an immediate statement to the rest of the NRL.

Anything less than a strong performance will be scrutinised and questioned. Tigers fans deserve nothing less after 10 years of excruciating patience.

The Titans aren’t hopeless, they will be dangerous with a well-balanced spine of AJ Brimson at the back, Kieran Foran running the show in the halves and Sam Verrills at dummy-half.

Tigers by 7.

Originally published as NRL 2023: Upsets, floggings and a grand final preview — bold NRL round 1 predictions