NRL 2023 ladder predicted: Every team’s results for first six rounds

The first six weeks of the NRL season can make or break your premiership campaign and while our experts predict good things ahead for the Broncos it will come with some derby pain.

Who sits on top after six rounds?

The first six weeks of the NRL season can make or break your premiership campaign, cost a coach his job, foil a game plan or blow up a team’s rebuild.

Premiers Penrith need to prove they’re still the benchmark, while South Sydney and the Sydney Roosters are under the gun to show they’re ready to challenge the Panthers’ superiority.

The rebuilds at Canterbury and Wests Tigers get their first proper tests, and Wayne Bennett’s much-maligned Dolphins roster gets the chance to silence the critics.

A number of coaches, including St George Illawarra’s Anthony Griffin, Newcastle’s Adam O’Brien and the Gold Coast’s Justin Holbrook, will be walking a tightrope to avoid becoming the year’s first coaching casualty.

Let me confess, I had a shocker with the tips last year, correctly picking just three of the possible eight in the opening round, while after six rounds I was about mid-table on 32 out of a possible 48.

Regardless, here’s how I see the opening six weeks could play out, and the impact it will have on all 17 clubs. Scroll down for PAUL CRAWLEY’s NRL ladder after six rounds.

Crawley’s verdict: Whatever the Roosters do against the Dolphins and Warriors won’t count for anything if they don’t aim up against the Rabbitohs in round 3. The Roosters need to grow up this year because with a roster this good the time for excuses is over. The fact is they have not beaten the Panthers since 2019 and won just one of six against the Storm and two of seven against the Rabbitohs between 2020 and 2022. They have a chance to knock over two of those hurdles early and I see them going unbeaten over the first six rounds.

The Roosters will go undefeated in the opening six rounds. Picture: Matt King/Getty

Crawley’s verdict: How the Cowboys and young guns like Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai deal with expectation will be the key, given their remarkable 2022 campaign came without the burden of pressure. The Cowboys have a favourable start to the season; the Raiders are the only 2022 top-eight opponent they face in the opening six rounds. What they won’t get this year is a cruisy ride by catching anyone by surprise.

Crawley’s verdict: Last year the Panthers won eight straight before their first loss. Despite the naysayers, I see them starting strongly again, with the only loss in the opening six rounds against the Rabbitohs in round two. They need a fast start to reassert their dominance and secure wins before their squad depth gets tested during the Origin period.

Can Penrith pick up where they left off? Picture: NRL Photos

Crawley’s verdict: Another incredibly tough start to the season, but Souths look primed for the challenge, just check out Latrell Mitchell’s physical appearance. He hasn’t looked this fit to start the season that I can remember, and that has to be a good indication of where his head is at. The Rabbitohs win close to 75 per cent of their games when Mitchell plays, while Damien Cook looked really sharp in the Charity Shield. Expect some big early season wins, but I do think the Roosters will have the greater motivation on the back of last year’s controversial sin bin fiasco in their finals showdown.

Crawley’s verdict: This is coach Kevin Walters’ chance to silence the outside noise. While it’s a massive task taking on the premiers at Penrith first up, the next five games are all at Suncorp and all very winnable. The Broncos should win four, possibly five, but go down in a massive boilover to the Dolphins. This is a match Bennett will be desperate to win. The Broncos need to start fast given they have arguably the toughest draw of any team, with 14 games against top eight teams from last season and just five against the bottom four.

The Broncos will defy their tough schedule. Picture: NRL

Crawley’s verdict: If Nicho Hynes was fit, I had Cronulla leading the comp after six rounds, such is his importance to the Sharks. But the calf injury that has ruled him out of the opening round, and now leaves him racing the clock to be fit for the next clash against the Eels, could cost the Sharks key wins given last year they only won four of nine games against fellow top-eight sides. Their trial win over the Bulldogs was impressive.

Crawley’s verdict: It was an early crow from Manly owner Scott Penn taking a swipe at Des Hasler recently, saying after watching “the first 10 minutes” of the trial against the Roosters in Gosford he could already see Anthony Seibold had galvanised the players and had them believing again. While that might well be the case, the reality is if Tom Trbojevic stays fit this season the Sea Eagles should be playing finals regardless of who is coaching them, because they have a roster more than capable of a top-four finish.

Tom Trbojevic will lead a Manly revival. Picture: Jeremy Piper

Crawley’s verdict: I can’t believe the TAB has the Storm favourites against the Eels given this game is at CommBank, and there has been so many massive changes to Melbourne’s line-up this year. That’s why I see this as history in the making with Craig Bellamy’s amazing record of winning 18 straight round one games finally coming to an end. From there the Storm should account for the Bulldogs, Titans and Tigers, but I can’t see them beating the Rabbitohs or Roosters without Ryan Papenhuyzen, although it’s a big opportunity for edge forwards Trent Loiero and Eliesa Katoa to make their mark.

Crawley’s verdict: It’s an incredibly tough draw to start the season and if the Eels jag three wins, they’ll have done okay. Shaun Lane’s busted jaw and Ryan Matterson’s three-game ban has decimated their back-row stocks. How quickly Josh Hodgson adapts to working alongside Mitchell Moses will be crucial, given both men like to be the dominant playmaker.

Crawley’s verdict: The Titans could be the giant killers of 2023. That trial demolition of the Dolphins was impressive and Kieran Foran’s halves partnership with young Tanah Boyd looks a good fit, along with hooker Sam Verrills’ arrival and AJ Brimson being back at fullback. It’s a big ask beating the Tigers first up at Leichhardt given all the hype surrounding the Tim Sheens/Benji Marshall rebuild, while the other alarming statistic is that they only managed two wins in the past three seasons against teams that ended up in the top eight. Last year they lost all 14 games against teams that made the finals.

The Titans are primed to be the surprise packet of the season. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty

Crawley’s verdict: The Raiders won just two of their opening eight games in 2022 and Ricky Stuart is destined for another slow season start, going on their trial form. I have them winning just two games against the Dolphins and Knights, although that round five clash in Newcastle could easily go the other way given how Kalyn Ponga always torments them. In their favour the Raiders do have a good draw this year, playing the top eight teams from last year just eight times, the fewest of any team.

Crawley’s verdict: The first six weeks could determine coach Adam O’Brien’s future because the Knights only play one top-eight team from 2022 (Raiders, round four). I think the Warriors will get them in New Zealand, and it would be a shock if they beat the Tigers at Leichhardt, though if they don’t beat the Dolphins there will be hell to pay. Of course, they could easily prove us wrong if Kalyn Ponga forms a quick connection with new halves partner Jackson Hastings.

Adam O’Brien needs a strong start. Picture: Albert Perez/Getty

Crawley’s verdict: I tipped the Warriors for the wooden spoon last year and they proved me wrong, finishing 15th. Sue me for that. After a first-up victory against the Knights in Wellington, I can only see them winning one other game in the opening six rounds, against the Bulldogs at Mt Smart Stadium. Last year they won two of four games at Mt Smart and it should have been three after bombing a 16-point lead against the Titans in the last round.

Crawley’s verdict: It’s hard to see how this is going to end well for coach Anthony Griffin, from what we’ve seen so far. The round-one bye is a blessing, giving the Dragons extra time to overcome a horror off-season, Charity Shield shocker and question marks over their culture.

The pressure on everyone at the club has only intensified. All eyes will also be on young fullback Tyrell Sloan to see how he responds after his shocker in Mudgee, because he will be targeted heavily in the early rounds and how he aims up will really impact this team.

Anthony Griffin’s Dragons career will be under the microscope. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty

Crawley’s verdict: Signs look positive from the Sheens/Marshall revolution following their final trial against the Raiders. And we still haven’t see how Api Koroisau is going to influence the Tigers’ style of play, particularly by taking some of the pressure off Luke Brooks. Improvement will mean beating the Titans, Knights and Bulldogs, but it’s how they lift against teams like the Storm and Eels that will define where they are at. Star English recruit John Bateman’s ankle injury, which is expected to keep him out for the first month, raises both short and long-term questions, given he was handed a lucrative four-year contract.

Crawley’s verdict: Injuries to Luke Thompson and Tevita Pangai Jr, poor pre-season form and a tough opening draw will be a huge reality check for new coach Cameron Ciraldo. The Bulldogs were awful in their last trial, and I struggle to see how the young spine that offered very little against the Sharks is going to manufacture enough points to challenge the top teams early, when they take on four genuine top four contenders in the opening six rounds. I know Reed Mahoney and Viliame Kikau are tremendous signings, but I’ve just got a hunch this season will be a slow burn.

Cameron Ciraldo’s Bulldogs career will start with a thud. Picture: NRL Photos

Crawley’s verdict: If Wayne Bennett’s mystical coaching powers can get the Dolphins home in one game all season, he would have round four circled on the fridge calendar, right next to a print out of the email via which the Broncos punted him. It’s a formality they get belted first up against the A-list Chooks, and the Raiders could easily give them a bath, while the Knights have the home ground advantage. A win over the Broncos wouldn’t be quite of the same magnitude of Bennett’s 2020 Origin upset with Queensland’s “worst ever team”, but it wouldn’t fall too far short.

The Dolphins will struggle early. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty

Originally published as NRL 2023 ladder predicted: Every team’s results for first six rounds