NRL 2021: Destinies of finals challengers revealed

There are three NRL sides in the hunt for the one remaining top eight spot and each will be hoping for different scenarios in round 25.

The race for eighth spot is going down to the wire. (Photo by Mike Owen/Getty Images)

The Warriors dropped out of the finals race with their loss on Friday, leaving three NRL teams battling it out for the remaining spot in the play-offs.

The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks, Canberra Raiders and Gold Coast Titans are all desperate for September action, but we’ll have to wait until next weekend to find out which of the three will lock up eight spot.

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At the end of round 24, the Sharks are sitting pretty in eighth, thanks to their win over Brisbane on Saturday.

The Raiders are on the same number of competition points (22) in ninth spot and the only other side in contention, Gold Coast, is a win behind in tenth.

Even though the Titans are a win behind, they’re the only member of the triumvirate to play a side outside the top eight next weekend. Good news for Justin Holbrook and co.

In the final week of the regular season, the Sharks meet the Storm, the Raiders have the Roosters and the Titans are battling it out with the Warriors. Here is what the three sides will be hoping happens next weekend.

The Sharks’ finals destiny is in their own hands. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Sharks

The equation is simplest for the Sharks, who have the best for-and-against of the three remaining sides (-24).

All they have to do is beat the Storm next weekend and they will finish eighth for the second consecutive season — barring the unlikely scenario that the Raiders defeat the Roosters by what would end up having to be at least 50 points.

Melbourne hasn’t suffered defeat since round three of this season but knocking the ladder leaders off in round 25 might be simpler than it sounds for the Sharks.

During the week, Storm coach Craig Bellamy indicated he was likely to rest members of his all-star cast to ensure all are fit and firing for finals.

The super coach did the same in the corresponding fixture last year, costing his side the win against St. George-Illawarra.

“We just thought last year that (resting players) was the right thing to do at that time,” Bellamy said.

“We’ll go with what we think is best for the team and best for our individuals. We haven’t really looked at it too closely this week.

“There’ll be some players that won’t want to rest; some players that we did rest last year in that last game thought they lost a bit of momentum leading into the finals.

“I want the players to have an opinion on it. If opinions differ, I’ll probably come over the top then, but I’m not quite sure how many it’s going to be. We’ll do what we think is right next week.”

This would have been music to coach Josh Hannay’s ears.

If the Sharks don’t defeat Melbourne, they can still make the play-offs. They’ll need the Raiders to lose to the Roosters, though, and preferably (but not necessarily) also for the Titans to lose. More on that shortly.

The Raiders are hoping to play in their third consecutive finals series. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

Raiders

Sitting on -73 points differential, the Raiders need to win and hope the Sharks lose to Melbourne. If they can’t get the two points against the Roosters, they’ll want to make sure they don’t lose by much because they’ll be banking on the Sharks losing by a huge margin in order to leapfrog them on points differential.

As long as the Raiders only lose to the Roosters by a few points, they can jump the Sharks if the Storm win by a margin of around 50. From what we’ve seen this season, it’s not that crazy a thought.

In this scenario, the Raiders also need the Titans to lose.

If the Raiders lose and the Titans win, there is no scenario in which Canberra can make the top eight, regardless of the Sharks’ result.

The maths would have been a lot simpler for the Titans had they not lost to Newcastle on Thursday. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

Titans

The Titans have a points differential of -47 after 24 rounds — somewhere in between their two rivals. A few things need to happen for the men from north of the Tweed to make the finals.

Given they sit two competition points behind the Raiders and Sharks, the Titans need to defeat the Warriors. Unfortunately, Gold Coast has a terrible record against the New Zealanders, having triumphed in just three of the sides’ last 20 encounters.

Like the Sharks and Raiders, the Titans will also rely on other results.

23 points separate Cronulla and the Gold Coast’s points differentials, so as long as the margin that the Sharks lose by and the margin that the Titans win by adds to 24 or more, and the Raiders also lose, the Titans will make the finals. Don’t write that off.

Originally published as NRL 2021: Destinies of finals challengers revealed