NRL 2016: James Tedesco to win Dally M, Cronulla Sharks to make the grand final and more fearless predictions
JAMES Tedesco wins the Dally M, but it all goes wrong for Manly. With the NRL season almost upon us, it’s time for some fearless predictions.
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MOST of the pre-season predictions you’ve read this season have probably been pretty similar.
Brisbane and North Queensland will dominate, the Roosters will struggle after the off-season from hell, Sam Burgess will make the Rabbitohs great again, Johnathan Thurston will win yet another Dally M medal and so on and so forth.
We could fall back on these well-reasoned and logical predictions, or we can get a little bit weird, change things around a touch, play with fire and maybe get burned.
Let’s put our money where our mouth is and our footy knowledge on the line because you’ve got to risk it to get the biscuit and if you want to get a delicious Mint Slice ahead of a packet of bland SAOS you need to get a little fearless with your predictions.
We’ve put together one bold, out there, possibly wildly incorrect prediction for each NRL club. Make sure you bookmark the link so you can come back at the end of the season and tell us how wrong we were.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Fearless Prediction: Darius Boyd will contend for the Dally M
Why It Can Happen: We’re living in a world with unprecedented depth at fullback. Between veterans like Billy Slater and Greg Inglis and the new breed led by James Tedesco, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Cameron Munster it’s a golden age of custodians. Darius Boyd has been left in the cold a little bit and while he was solid enough in the Broncos’ run to the grand final last season he was hardly as effective as he’s been in the past. By our reckoning you can put most of this down to his less than easy transition back to Brisbane — Boyd snapped his Achilles early in the 2015 pre-season and was initially projected to miss much of the year.
He returned earlier than usual and didn’t look out of place but back at full fitness and playing a vital role in such a powerful attacking unit as the Broncos means that Boyd will be one of the players to watch in 2015. We all joke about Boyd’s close relationship with Wayne Bennett (reports that Boyd has applied for English citizenship remain unconfirmed) but Boyd was one of the best fullbacks in the game when Bennett coached the Dragons and was still very effective as a Knight. He’s got all the skills and knows how to use them.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Fearless Prediction: North Queensland will miss the top four
Why It Can Happen: The Cowboys were a winning machine in 2015 after their dusty start and made their bones in close games, winning 10 matches by 10 points or less. While they are a terrifically talented, tough and well-drilled team there are a lot of reasons to expect a slight regression this year. There’s a reason it’s been 23 years since a team went back to back, everything becomes that little but more difficult. You’ve scaled the mountain and aren’t quite as hungry, there’s target on your backs, maybe Johnathan Thurston produces a paltry 9.5/10 season instead of the 10 he delivered in 2015.
The Cowboys are still a premiership threat and have the goods to go all the way but don’t be surprised if they slip outside the top four. Only two teams (the 1995 Bulldogs and the 1993 Broncos) have won the competition from outside the top four but North Queensland have the team to do the business should they fall a little bit.
MELBOURNE STORM
Fearless Prediction: Melbourne wins the competition
Why It Can Happen: You can keep writing the Storm off if you want. You can say that Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk are washed up and that this is the season that it all comes crashing down but people have been saying that for years and the Storm have just kept playing and grinding and winning. The incredible grand final last year has overshadowed the Storm’s run to the preliminary final, but they were leading the Cowboys 12-10 just before half-time when Matt Duffie decided it would be a good idea to use his feet as his hands and took a wild air swing at a Thurston kick. Things ended poorly for the Duffman, Gavin Cooper scored and North Queensland crossed for three unanswered tries in the second half, two from loose ball situations. The Cowboys deserved their win certainly, but the match was much closer than the 32-12 final scored would indicate.
Melbourne made their return to the top levels of the premiership and did it all without Billy Slater. The highly impressive Cameron Munster will switch to left centre, which was an area of concern for Craig Bellamy for all of last season, and gives the backline a stronger attacking balance. Smith, Slater and Cronk have enjoyed their first full pre-season since about 1996 and between Tohu Harris, Kevin Proctor, Jesse Bromwich and Dale Finucane the Storm have a forward pack that can rock it with the best of them. You can sleep on the Storm if you want, but they’re a premiership team.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Fearless Prediction: Mitchell Pearce does not play for the Roosters past 2016
Why It Can Happen: The punishment for Pearce’s Australia Day antics is still to be handed down but the general feeling seems to indicate he’ll be back on the field at some stage this season. However, the World Club Challenge showed a glimpse of the Roosters future in Jackson Hastings and Jayden Nikorima and it looks bright, exciting and, for the time being, cheap. Pearce is off contract at the end of the season and is currently on a hefty deal.
The Roosters need some serious cash money if they want to sign New Zealand sevens players or San Francisco 49ers running backs and Pearce is an easy casualty given they have two strong replacements already. The Roosters may decide that Pearce has reached his peak as a player and prefer to move on with the two young guns.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Fearless Prediction: Michael Lichaa will be one of the most improved players in the competition
Why It Can Happen: Lichaa joined the Bulldogs from the Sharks with big wraps and an even bigger contract and was solid in 2015 but rarely starred. He showcased his excellent work rate but did not display some of the fine attacking skills that saw him compared to some of the best hookers in the game when he was in the juniors. Lichaa is sharp out of dummy half when he chooses to run and commits the markers well but too often he was content to stay in the middle, tackle his heart out and provide strong service with his passing.
For the Dogs to be a premiership team and for Lichaa to match the hype, he needs to provide more of a running threat out of dummy half. It was no coincidence that when Damian Cook came into the team late last season he immediately revitalised the blue-and-whites’ attack by providing them with a far more dangerous threat through the middle of the ruck. We think the 22-year old can get it done and the Bulldogs’ championship chances may depend on it.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Fearless Prediction: The Sharks make the grand final
Why It Can Happen: As some cruel but accurate schoolchildren told Paul Gallen last week, Cronulla’s biggest claim to fame is their inability to win a premiership. The Sharks are close to entering their 50th year in the league with no championship to show for it, but beyond that Cronulla have made just three grand finals in that time, in 1973, 1978 and in 1997 (but in 1997 it was in Super League and while we don’t mean to disrespect all the Hunter Mariners hold-outs reading, that doesn’t really count).
But the Sharks look excellent from top to bottom. They made the second week of the finals last season while rocking the patchwork halves combination of Jack Bird and Jeff Robson. Despite being blown off the park by the Cowboys, they’ve improved themselves massively with the addition of James Maloney and Chad Townsend, which improves their kicking game significantly and will likely boost the consistency of their creativity. Even if Ben Barba flops at fullback the club has got Valentine Holmes waiting in the wings. They’re tremendously well-rounded, tough and experienced and should certainly be in the premiership discussion.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Fearless Prediction: Damian Cook pushes Cameron McInnes out of the team
Why It Can Happen: This is probably the least fearless of our fearless predictions given that Cook was so impressive for Canterbury at the end of last season and in the Charity Shield but the dilemma leaves the Rabbitohs and Michael Maguire in an awkward position. McInnes was reportedly all but signed, sealed and delivered to the Dragons last season following Issac Luke’s move to the Warriors only to re-sign with the Bunnies based on an assurance that he would get first crack at the dummy half job.
But if the Rabbitohs want to win and want to win consistently they need to start Cook. He is the perfect replacement for Luke in that he offers similar speed out of dummy half. While Luke is the more powerful runner Cook arguably has him licked for speed and proved last year he can play close to 80 minutes without issue. That leaves McInnes, a fine defender who offers less in attack and inconsistent service, in the lurch. He’s been named to start the season as the Rabbitohs’ first-choice hooker but it’s hard to see him staying there for too long.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Fearless Prediction: Josh Dugan does not spend the whole season in the centres
Why It Can Happen: Paul McGregor wants Josh Dugan to play in the centres and Josh Dugan wants Josh Dugan to play in the centres but there’s one simple but significant problem in that they have nobody who can really replace him at fullback. The Dragons seem set on plying Dugan at right centre and unleashing a pretty potent backline of Dugan and Euan Aitken on the right and Tim Lafai with Jason Nightingale on the left, which would be the best cadre of backs they’ve had since 2010.
However, Dugan’s replacements at fullback aren’t exactly stellar. Kurt Mann will start the season at the back but does he have the consistency to stay their all season? Adam Quinlan returns from St Helens, but is he durable enough to consistently provide punch on kick returns? Peter Mata’utia played a lot of fullback as a youngster, but can he do the damage in first grade? Despite their plans, we see Dugan spending as much time at fullback this season as he does in his new position.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
Fearless Prediction: It all goes horribly wrong
Why It Can Happen: The Sea Eagles have been completely rebuilt from top to bottom in the last 12 months and have arguably the most impressive recruitment class. Dylan Walker and Martin Taupau are true blue stars while Lewis Brown, Nate Myles, Matt Parcell and Apisai Koroisau are all smart purchases who shore up their key positions.
But there’s a lot of moving parts to this team and a lot of potential trouble, like Walker moving to five-eighth, a position he struggled with when he filled in there at Souths or the implications of Daly Cherry-Evans playing without Kieran Foran for the first time in his career. Throw in a rookie coach in Trent Barrett and a worryingly hefty pre-season injury toll and there’s a chance that everything falls apart for the Silvertails.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Fearless Prediction: Canberra make the top four
Why it Can Happen: Don’t look now, but the Raiders have one of the most well-rounded squads in the NRL. They had a score of heartbreaking losses last season and were capable of matching anyone in the competition on their day. With the addition of Aidan Sezer, who has been the best-kept secret in the competition since he debuted for the Titans in 2012, the Raiders have depth in key positions and a roster filled with quality from top to bottom.
Some are tipping the Raiders to make the top eight this season but if they catch fire they could push all the way into the top four. Sezer, Blake Austin, Josh Hodgson and Jack Wighton form a deadly spine and their forward pack, led by Paul Vaughan, Shannon Boyd, Josh Papalii and Shaun Fensom is one of the most underrated in the competition. With attacking power coming out of their ears, if the Raiders can fix their defence (which is a huge if — they were one of the worst defensive units in the league last season and the last time Ricky Stuart had a team that was strong defensively was in 2008) they can really make an impact in 2016.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Fearless Prediction: Peter Wallace is dropped before Origin I
Why It Can Happen: If Peter Wallace wasn’t good enough for Anthony Griffin in 2013 it doesn’t bode well for the veteran halfback’s future at Penrith. In the few short months Griffin has been at the club Wallace has lost the captaincy as he rehabs from his latest knee injury and now it seems like his time at the club is running out.
But beyond that, the Panthers have a logjam in the halves. Jamie Soward is still around, Matt Moylan will move to five-eighth sooner rather than later and Te Maire Martin will be knocking on the door of first-grade selection before the year is out. Unfortunately for Wallace, he seems certain to be the odd man out even if he starts the season at the scrum base.
WESTS TIGERS
Fearless Prediction: James Tedesco wins the Dally M
Why it Could Happen: The last time a Dally M Medal winner came from a team that missed the finals was in 2004 when Danny Buderus produced the best season of his career to sneak in front of Brett Finch. The last time a Tigers or Magpies player won the award was in 1983 when Terry Lamb took it home despite Wests finishing last. Tedesco finished joint-eighth last season with 16 points, equal with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck as the highest polling fullback, and could have snuck into a podium finish if he’d been a little luckier with polling.
Tedesco is far and away the best player at the Tigers and Aaron Woods is the sole teammate who could take points off him. If he can replicate his form of last season, and from the look of the trials he’ll go close, Tedesco could be in with a real shot of taking home the medal.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Fearless Prediction: It all goes wrong until it doesn’t
Why It Can’t Happen: Every red blooded rugby league fan should want the Warriors to work. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Shaun Johnson, Issac Luke, Konrad Hurrell, Manu Vatuvei and their ogre-like pack of forwards should be an instant recipe for excellence, or at the very least the kind of mile-a-minute, flick-passing, hot-stepping mayhem that the New Zealanders provide at their best. But while we know the answers, the questions still remain. Andrew McFadden has been the latest coach not named Ivan Cleary who has failed to get the best out of the Warriors and questions remain over his ability to do so.
If McFadden can’t prove he’s the man to do the job, Cleary is waiting in the wings following his strange split with Penrith. Cleary is the only man who has been able to get the best out of the Warriors on a consistent basis. The club achieved a 77-74 record under him and made four finals series in six seasons with the two outs coming in 2006, the year they started the season on -4 points (if they started the year square they would have made the finals) and 2009 (when the club was thrown into a tailspin following the death of Sonny Fai). If Cleary does end up at the Warriors things could get very real very quickly.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Fearless Prediction: The tries dry up for Semi
Why it Could Happen: Semi Radradra has been scoring tries at a historic rate. Back-to-back years leading the try-scoring lists is impressive enough but ripping off 24 tries in 18 games is outrageous, Ken Irvine-type stuff. Only two players (Nathan Blacklock from 1999 to 2001 and Benny Wearing from 1925-27) have lead the try-scoring lists three years in a row and Radradra might struggle to match the extraordinary output he’s produced during the past two seasons.
Part of this will be structural. Radradra will go from playing outside Brad Takairangi, who is known for his sharp hands and offloading ability, to playing outside Michael Jennings who, as talented as he is, always prefers to run rather than pass (let’s face it, if we could run like Jennings could we’d never stop running either). Radradra will still get his share of tries because he’s such a powerful and dynamic runner and excellent finisher but matching the totals of 2014 and 2015 might be a bit much to ask.
GOLD COAST TITANS
Fearless Prediction: Tyrone Roberts nearly leads the Titans to the brink of the finals
Why it Could Happen: Everyone was hyped over the Titans’ recruitment of Ashley Taylor to play alongside Kane Elgey in the halves but when Elgey did his knee early in the pre-season it seemed to be typically Titans-esque luck. However, the club has also landed Tyrone Roberts from Newcastle and he could be one of the more underrated buys of the season.
Roberts has a sharp running game, a time-bending dummy and a strong kicking game when he’s on song. He showed flashes of real brilliance in Newcastle, particularly at the back end of 2013 and 2014, and was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a difficult final season with the Knights. Making the playoffs seems to be a long bow for the Titans to draw but the form of Roberts could be a real bright spot.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Fearless Prediction: Mullen moves on at season’s end
Why it Could Happen: Like we have previously discussed, Mullen could be facing a real battle to stay at the Knights beyond this season. With 11 seasons in first grade in the bank and a coach who is determined not to let names or reputations get in the way of results, Mullen could find himself on the chop at the end of the season if he cannot find the consistency that has eluded him for much of his career.
Mullen may be under contract until the end of 2018 but Brown’s willingness to trim underperforming veterans, his exclusion of Mullen not only from the captaincy but from the leadership group entirely means that the one-time Origin halfback has a hell of a lot to prove.
Originally published as NRL 2016: James Tedesco to win Dally M, Cronulla Sharks to make the grand final and more fearless predictions
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