Matty Johns: Why Nathan Cleary holds the key to upsetting Souths’ winning rhythm
Penrith will be hyped up and full of adrenaline, but they have to be careful against Souths in the preliminary final on Saturday. They will need plenty in defence to win this, says Matty Johns.
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The race for a spot in the NRL grand final is down to four teams. Who will win and why? Matty Johns gives his verdict on the two preliminary finals.
PANTHERS v SOUTHS
MOMENTUM V FRESHNESS
The Rabbitohs are flying. Like horse racing legend Bart Cummings, who would get his horses to peak on the first Tuesday in November, Wayne Bennett knows how to get his teams firing in the final quarter of the season.
After a slow start and an inconsistent middle season, Souths started to really hit their stride when the finals were in sight. And while others faded, Bennett’s philosophy to under train rather than over train has them peaking.
The Panthers are rested and that’s a big factor because you need to be energised, particularly in defence, to hold off Souths.
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But the week off can be tricky, especially for young teams. It can stall the momentum you have built up and you can spend the two weeks adjusting areas of your game that don’t need adjusting.
In 2000, our Knights team spent the two weeks altering our defensive principles, which left us vulnerable once the Roosters’ playmakers worked it out.
THE YARDAGE BATTLE
The battle for yardage supremacy is the most important factor in rugby league and it will decide this match.
The Rabbitohs rely on momentum and speed in the ruck to get their attack humming. If their middles get on top, the Panthers are no chance of containing Cody Walker and Damien Cook.
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The young Panthers will be hyped up and full of adrenaline, which can make it difficult for halves to get the team in its proper attacking groove. They have to be careful not to burn too much gas with the ball because they will need plenty in defence to win this.
Penrith also don’t stop throwing questions at a defence, so Souths will need to improve in that area and also be mindful not to be too focused on attack.
CREATIVE TWINS
The make-up in these two teams in the creative positions is also almost identical.
Both rely heavily on their dummy-halves.
Cook’s speed is a big focal point in triggering Souths, while Api Koroisau has been crucial in forcing Nathan Cleary to play straighter and faster. He has clever ways to get his playmakers past the markers and, like Cook, his speed out of dummy-half.
The No.6s, Walker and Jarome Luai, both play fast, reactive football. They can create by putting their players through gaps and hitting the gaps themselves.
Both raise the tempo of their team’s attack and are a perfect foil for their No.7s, who get their sides back on the rails with their composure.
That’s what Cleary and Adam Reynolds do so well. Among the high speed, react-fast nature of how their teams, they know when it’s time to touch the breaks and find the right kick to conclude the set.
Fullbacks Dylan Edwards and Corey Allan are going to be put under huge pressure, by Cleary and Reynolds, with subtle short kicks and towering bombs.
Cleary’s dead-ball bomb is a fullback’s nightmare. The way both fullbacks are able to deal with this kick pressure is absolutely crucial.
WHO WINS?
If Souths start slow again they won’t run Penrith down. Cleary’s kicking will make it very difficult for the Bunnies to get back into the match. The style of the contest will be decided by who sets the tempo and Cleary has been able to do that all year.
TIP: PENRITH 2-4 points.
MELBOURNE v CANBERRA
MOMENTUM V FRESHNESS
Canberra has had a great back half of the season, winning eight of their last nine matches.
My knock on Canberra early in the season was that without the composure of hooker Josh Hodgson, they played without breaks.
George Williams and Jack Wighton love to play fast and that sets the tempo of the Raiders’ attack. When things stick and the team is in a good attacking rhythm, it’s so effective, but when the team is even slightly off, it leads to lots of errors.
In the last couple of months, Canberra has really improved in this area. Williams and Wighton have pulled it back when the Raiders just needed to consolidate.
The Storm will be energised. They rested nearly all of their stars in the final round and had another week off after beating Parramatta in week one of the finals.
It raises that question, what’s better? Freshness from a light load or to arrive battle-hardened?
For most teams having only one game in three weeks would be problematic, but Melbourne know what’s required and has a winning template for big games.
GIANTS IN THE MIDFIELD
The middle will be a mighty battle of size and power against subtlety and guile.
The size and power is the challenge the Storm face in trying to minimise the damage Josh Papalii does.
Papalii’s season has been phenomenal. Speeding up the rucks in theory doesn’t suit the big middle men but it has made Papalii even better, such is his fitness and athleticism.
Williams and Wighton will need Papalii to be every bit as good as last week if they are to have time and space to break open the Melbourne defence.
Melbourne’s giant in the middle isn’t big in stature but giant in influence, Cameron Smith.
Canberra will have to contain the Storm’s yardage men or Smith will carve them up.
Watch for Smith’s little trick plays in and around the play-the-ball to get Ryan Papenhuyzen into space and to give Cameron Munster room to challenge the defenders, two or three outside the ruck.
It appears almost certain Smith will retire at the end of the season, so he will head into the match knowing it could very well be his last.
He’ll be focused and fired up for a big one.
WHO WINS?
These teams are so similar in styles. The two sets of halves are almost identical in how they attack. But Melbourne has an established big-game template — and Cameron Smith.
TIP: STORM by 4-6 points.
Originally published as Matty Johns: Why Nathan Cleary holds the key to upsetting Souths’ winning rhythm